Atlantic 10

Updated with games through Monday, December 22

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Atlantic 10		Current Record		Projected Record		Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
	Team	Conf.	Overall	Conf.	Overall	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th	14th
1.	Saint Louis (35)	0 - 0	11 - 1	14.8 - 3.2	25.8 - 4.2	61.0	19.6	9.7	4.8	2.3	1.4	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.1
2.	VCU (60)	0 - 0	9 - 4	12.1 - 5.9	21.1 - 9.9	12.7	20.4	17.2	13.8	11.2	8.5	6.6	4.8	2.4	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.0
3.	George Washington (84)	0 - 0	8 - 4	11.8 - 6.2	19.8 - 10.2	7.1	17.4	17.8	15.4	12.2	10.4	8.0	5.4	3.5	1.8	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
4.	Dayton (77)	0 - 0	9 - 4	11.6 - 6.4	20.6 - 10.4	8.0	14.3	16.3	15.2	12.8	11.3	8.4	5.9	4.0	2.3	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
5.	George Mason (95)	0 - 0	10 - 1	10.9 - 7.1	21.8 - 8.2	5.3	10.5	11.9	13.2	13.0	12.0	10.5	8.3	7.0	4.3	2.2	1.1	0.4	0.1
6.	Davidson (130)	0 - 0	7 - 4	9.8 - 8.2	16.8 - 12.2	1.8	4.4	6.9	8.9	11.0	12.2	13.6	12.2	11.5	8.5	5.2	2.8	0.8	0.2
7.	Richmond (107)	0 - 0	9 - 2	9.8 - 8.2	19.7 - 10.3	1.6	6.0	7.9	9.8	12.2	11.4	11.9	12.0	11.3	7.6	4.9	2.4	0.8	0.1
8.	Rhode Island (122)	0 - 0	9 - 4	9.6 - 8.4	18.6 - 12.4	1.3	4.0	6.0	8.1	9.9	11.9	13.5	13.6	12.2	9.4	5.8	3.2	0.9	0.2
9.	St. Bonaventure (135)	0 - 0	10 - 2	9.2 - 8.8	19.2 - 10.8	1.0	2.7	4.5	7.4	9.3	11.2	12.9	13.7	12.6	10.7	7.2	4.7	1.8	0.4
10.	Duquesne (169)	0 - 0	6 - 5	7.1 - 10.9	13.1 - 15.9	0.2	0.5	1.1	1.9	3.3	5.1	6.9	9.5	12.7	16.1	17.7	14.4	7.6	2.9
11.	Fordham (200)	0 - 0	6 - 4	6.5 - 11.5	12.5 - 15.5	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.9	2.9	4.1	8.2	11.6	16.4	18.6	18.6	11.6	4.5
12.	Saint Joseph's (247)	0 - 0	6 - 5	5.7 - 12.3	11.7 - 17.3	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.2	2.3	4.3	7.9	13.7	19.8	22.6	17.2	9.7
13.	La Salle (269)	0 - 0	3 - 9	4.1 - 13.9	7.1 - 22.9			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.5	2.6	5.8	11.4	18.3	30.7	28.5
14.	Loyola Chicago (310)	0 - 0	4 - 9	2.9 - 15.1	6.9 - 24.1						0.1	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.9	4.7	11.2	28.0	53.3
Weekly Changes
1.	Saint Louis (35)					+16.3	-1.7	-3.8	-3.5	-3.1	-1.8	-1.2	-0.7	-0.4	-0.1	-0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
2.	VCU (60)					-4.8	+1.9	+1.9	+0.7	+0.1	-0.5	+0.3	+0.4	-0.3	+0.2	+0.2	-0.1	-0.0	-0.0
3.	George Washington (84)					-2.5	+2.5	+1.7	-0.5	-0.4	+0.2	-0.1	-0.5	-0.3	+0.1	-0.2	-0.0	+0.0	+0.0
4.	Dayton (77)					-1.7	+0.7	+2.2	+1.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.8	-0.8	-0.4	+0.3	-0.2	-0.0	-0.0	+0.0
5.	George Mason (95)					-4.6	-2.9	-2.1	-0.3	+1.0	+1.1	+1.7	+0.9	+2.4	+1.4	+0.7	+0.4	+0.3	+0.0
6.	Davidson (130)					-1.1	-1.1	-0.9	-0.4	-1.1	-0.4	+0.0	+0.4	+1.6	+1.0	+1.0	+0.7	+0.2	+0.1
7.	Richmond (107)					-0.2	+1.3	+1.3	+1.9	+1.6	-0.3	-0.9	-1.0	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8	-0.7	-0.2	-0.0
8.	Rhode Island (122)					-1.1	-0.7	-0.7	-0.4	+0.2	+0.3	-0.1	-0.1	+0.0	+1.4	+0.6	+0.6	-0.1	+0.0
9.	St. Bonaventure (135)					-0.4	-0.4	-0.0	+0.4	+0.3	+0.4	+0.5	-1.0	-0.7	+0.5	+0.1	+0.2	-0.0	+0.1
10.	Duquesne (169)					+0.1	+0.2	+0.2	+0.7	+1.3	+1.6	+2.0	+2.3	+1.0	-0.2	-0.8	-3.9	-3.4	-1.2
11.	Fordham (200)					+0.0	+0.1	+0.2	+0.2	+0.7	+0.7	+0.2	+1.7	+1.3	+0.4	-1.3	-1.6	-3.1	+0.5
12.	Saint Joseph's (247)					+0.0	-0.1	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.8	-1.3	-1.6	-2.7	-4.3	+0.0	+3.2	+3.7	+4.5
13.	La Salle (269)					+0.0	-0.0	-0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-0.4	-0.1	-0.8	-0.9	-1.1	-1.7	-2.1	+7.0
14.	Loyola Chicago (310)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-0.0	+0.1	+0.1	+0.1	+0.3	+0.9	+1.8	+3.0	+4.8	-11.1

This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

			Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
	Team	Outright	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th	14th
1.	Saint Louis	53.8	69.4	17.3	7.2	3.0	1.7	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0
2.	VCU	8.7	16.6	22.8	17.5	13.2	10.0	7.5	5.5	3.4	2.0	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.0
3.	George Washington	5.3	11.7	21.4	18.4	14.3	10.2	8.8	6.7	4.3	2.4	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
4.	Dayton	5.5	11.2	17.2	17.8	14.5	12.1	10.0	7.1	4.6	2.8	1.6	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0
5.	George Mason	3.2	7.0	13.6	13.9	13.9	12.2	11.0	9.5	7.3	5.7	3.4	1.8	0.7	0.2	0.0
6.	Davidson	1.1	2.8	6.8	9.3	11.0	12.5	12.8	12.5	10.8	9.7	6.1	3.6	1.7	0.5	0.1
7.	Richmond	0.9	2.5	8.0	9.4	10.8	12.1	11.6	12.0	11.3	10.3	6.4	3.5	1.6	0.4	0.1
8.	Rhode Island	0.7	2.1	5.9	8.2	9.7	12.0	12.6	13.1	12.0	10.1	7.6	4.1	2.1	0.5	0.1
9.	St. Bonaventure	0.5	1.6	4.2	6.5	9.4	10.4	11.8	12.7	13.0	11.4	8.9	5.7	3.1	1.1	0.2
10.	Duquesne	0.1	0.2	0.8	1.6	2.6	4.3	5.9	7.6	10.8	13.8	16.4	17.0	11.8	5.5	1.7
11.	Fordham	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.4	2.4	3.6	5.8	8.9	13.3	17.2	18.4	16.0	8.6	2.9
12.	Saint Joseph's	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.2	1.9	3.3	5.8	9.7	15.4	20.5	21.4	13.3	6.5
13.	La Salle	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.8	3.7	7.4	13.4	20.1	31.4	20.3
14.	Loyola Chicago	0.0					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.9	2.7	5.8	13.7	29.0	47.3

This Week's Games

Date	Away	W Prob, Pred Score				Home
Dec. 28	Charleston Southern	13.4%	69	83	86.6%	Richmond
Dec. 28	Penn	9.2%	64	80	90.8%	George Mason