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Atlantic 10

Updated with games through Wednesday, March 04

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Atlantic 10 Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th
1. Saint Louis (27) 15 - 2 26 - 3 15.8 - 2.2 26.8 - 3.2 100.0
2. VCU (51) 14 - 3 23 - 7 14.5 - 3.5 23.5 - 7.5 100.0
3. Saint Joseph's (142) 12 - 5 18 - 10 12.8 - 5.2 18.8 - 10.2 91.18.9
4. Dayton (82) 12 - 5 21 - 9 12.5 - 5.5 21.5 - 9.5 8.991.1
5. George Mason (112) 10 - 7 21 - 8 10.2 - 7.8 21.2 - 8.8 100.0
6. Davidson (124) 9 - 8 16 - 12 9.5 - 8.5 16.5 - 12.5 100.0
7. George Washington (86) 8 - 9 16 - 13 8.9 - 9.1 16.9 - 13.1 30.961.97.1
8. Duquesne (147) 8 - 9 14 - 14 8.6 - 9.4 14.6 - 14.4 69.017.014.0
9. Fordham (191) 7 - 10 13 - 14 7.6 - 10.4 13.6 - 14.4 7.148.144.7
10. Rhode Island (141) 7 - 10 16 - 14 7.4 - 10.6 16.4 - 14.6 14.030.855.3
11. Richmond (146) 5 - 12 14 - 15 5.4 - 12.6 14.4 - 15.6 89.110.9
12. La Salle (242) 5 - 12 8 - 21 5.2 - 12.8 8.2 - 21.8 10.989.1
13. St. Bonaventure (159) 4 - 13 14 - 15 4.5 - 13.5 14.5 - 15.5 100.0
14. Loyola Chicago (304) 3 - 14 7 - 23 3.1 - 14.9 7.1 - 23.9 100.0
Weekly Changes
1. Saint Louis (27) +0.4-0.4+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. VCU (51) -0.4+2.8-2.2-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
3. Saint Joseph's (142) +0.0-0.0+40.0-8.5-20.8-9.6-1.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
4. Dayton (82) +0.0-2.2-25.0+35.8-7.0-1.5-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
5. George Mason (112) +0.0-0.1-3.4-12.8+60.4-24.3-12.5-6.3-1.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
6. Davidson (124) +0.0+0.0-9.3-13.9-18.7+68.3-17.9-6.2-1.8-0.5+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
7. George Washington (86) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-1.7-13.9+1.2+31.3-12.5-4.4-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0
8. Duquesne (147) +0.0+0.0-0.0-0.2-10.2-13.3+43.7-8.6-2.6-7.5-1.2+0.0+0.0+0.0
9. Fordham (191) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.2-1.6-4.0-8.2+18.9+9.7-14.5-0.2+0.0+0.0
10. Rhode Island (141) +0.0+0.0-0.0-0.4-1.8-4.0-9.4-0.5+6.5+22.5-10.5-2.1-0.2+0.0
11. Richmond (146) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-1.5-7.4-18.0+22.8+4.5-0.3+0.0
12. La Salle (242) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.3+9.2+32.9-41.0-0.8
13. St. Bonaventure (159) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-1.4-5.8-34.8+44.6-2.6
14. Loyola Chicago (304) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.2-3.1+3.3


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th
1. Saint Louis 89.0100.0
2. VCU 0.011.089.0
3. Saint Joseph's 0.091.18.9
4. Dayton 0.062.038.0
5. George Mason 0.0100.0
6. Davidson 0.035.065.0
7. George Washington 0.047.444.77.9
8. Duquesne 0.034.934.130.9
9. Fordham 0.02.821.331.144.7
10. Rhode Island 0.02.317.624.955.3
11. Richmond 0.089.110.9
12. La Salle 0.070.629.4
13. St. Bonaventure 0.029.121.849.2
14. Loyola Chicago 0.06.094.0






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Mar. 06 VCU 46.3% 75 76 53.7% Dayton
Mar. 07 Davidson 45.5% 72 73 54.5% St. Bonaventure
Mar. 07 Richmond 35.3% 75 79 64.7% Duquesne
Mar. 07 Rhode Island 44.2% 63 64 55.8% Fordham
Mar. 07 Saint Louis 76.6% 79 71 23.4% George Mason
Mar. 07 George Washington 86.3% 84 71 13.7% Loyola Chicago
Mar. 07 La Salle 17.6% 63 73 82.4% Saint Joseph's