Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Atlantic 10

Updated with games through Friday, January 02

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Atlantic 10 Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th
1. Saint Louis (31) 2 - 0 13 - 1 16.1 - 2.9 27.1 - 3.9 72.616.26.32.61.20.60.30.00.00.0
2. George Washington (79) 1 - 1 9 - 5 12.7 - 6.3 20.7 - 10.3 5.720.721.418.213.79.35.72.61.60.70.20.10.0
3. VCU (57) 1 - 1 10 - 5 12.5 - 6.5 21.5 - 10.5 8.121.019.216.412.99.05.93.82.01.10.50.10.00.0
4. Dayton (84) 2 - 0 11 - 4 12.4 - 6.6 21.4 - 10.6 6.517.717.917.614.710.47.04.52.30.90.30.10.00.0
5. George Mason (96) 2 - 0 13 - 1 12.0 - 7.0 23.0 - 8.0 5.115.016.115.414.612.08.56.33.42.11.10.20.10.0
6. St. Bonaventure (123) 1 - 1 11 - 3 10.4 - 8.6 20.4 - 10.6 1.13.97.110.513.515.215.312.58.86.03.31.80.70.1
7. Duquesne (150) 2 - 0 8 - 5 9.6 - 9.4 15.6 - 14.4 0.42.44.87.39.813.415.414.711.98.85.83.41.40.4
8. Richmond (125) 1 - 1 10 - 4 9.5 - 9.5 18.5 - 12.5 0.32.44.86.79.912.714.014.912.59.56.63.71.50.4
9. Davidson (155) 0 - 2 7 - 6 8.2 - 10.8 15.2 - 14.8 0.10.31.12.44.07.110.614.417.115.912.68.44.31.8
10. Rhode Island (147) 0 - 2 9 - 6 7.8 - 11.2 16.8 - 15.2 0.10.41.01.93.75.88.311.515.716.814.611.16.22.9
11. Saint Joseph's (231) 0 - 1 7 - 6 6.0 - 12.0 13.0 - 17.0 0.00.10.51.12.24.36.610.714.418.618.713.99.0
12. Fordham (208) 0 - 2 6 - 6 6.3 - 12.7 12.3 - 16.7 0.00.10.30.92.13.86.29.614.317.719.416.09.5
13. Loyola Chicago (302) 1 - 0 5 - 9 4.1 - 13.9 8.1 - 22.9 0.00.00.00.20.40.92.25.110.118.832.130.3
14. La Salle (263) 0 - 2 3 - 11 4.1 - 14.9 7.1 - 23.9 0.00.10.10.40.92.24.28.614.023.845.6
Weekly Changes
1. Saint Louis (31) +12.7-4.1-3.1-2.5-1.4-0.8-0.5-0.3-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. George Washington (79) -2.0+4.1+3.3+2.9+1.0-1.2-1.9-2.7-1.6-1.1-0.5-0.3-0.1+0.0
3. VCU (57) -5.2+1.0+2.0+2.4+2.0+0.7-0.8-0.7-0.8-0.4-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
4. Dayton (84) -1.5+2.5+2.0+2.8+1.1-0.6-1.3-1.5-1.4-1.3-0.6-0.2-0.1-0.0
5. George Mason (96) +0.0+4.6+4.3+3.0+1.8+0.1-2.3-2.5-3.6-2.6-1.4-0.9-0.4-0.1
6. St. Bonaventure (123) +0.2+1.2+2.1+3.3+4.6+4.2+2.4-1.3-4.3-4.2-3.9-2.9-1.2-0.1
7. Duquesne (150) +0.2+1.8+3.4+5.3+6.4+8.6+8.5+5.1-1.2-7.5-11.4-11.2-5.7-2.3
8. Richmond (125) -1.5-3.9-3.2-3.2-1.2+0.7+2.0+2.7+1.8+1.6+2.1+1.2+0.8+0.2
9. Davidson (155) -1.5-3.6-5.5-6.9-6.8-5.3-2.7+1.5+5.7+7.4+7.1+5.5+3.4+1.6
10. Rhode Island (147) -1.4-3.5-4.9-6.6-6.8-6.3-4.3-2.0+3.7+7.1+8.6+8.5+5.2+2.7
11. Saint Joseph's (231) -0.0+0.0-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.8+1.8+2.4+2.8+0.8-0.9-3.5-4.3-0.1
12. Fordham (208) -0.0-0.1-0.3-0.8-0.8-0.9-0.9-1.0-2.1-1.8-1.7+1.2+4.1+5.0
13. Loyola Chicago (302) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.3+0.8+1.6+3.5+5.7+7.7+5.6-25.4
14. La Salle (263) +0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.5-1.4-3.0-5.2-7.2+18.4


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th
1. Saint Louis 67.281.212.04.21.50.60.40.10.00.00.0
2. George Washington 3.68.826.921.617.011.27.23.91.81.00.40.20.00.0
3. VCU 4.510.223.820.216.411.88.04.72.71.40.60.20.10.0
4. Dayton 4.49.422.219.317.012.39.05.43.01.50.60.20.10.0
5. George Mason 3.07.019.217.416.113.410.27.34.42.61.60.60.20.00.0
6. St. Bonaventure 0.61.66.39.412.914.415.313.210.37.34.72.51.40.50.1
7. Duquesne 0.20.73.66.38.910.914.014.813.511.17.54.82.61.10.2
8. Richmond 0.20.63.45.98.711.213.814.113.811.07.85.32.81.10.3
9. Davidson 0.00.10.71.83.95.69.412.414.915.214.110.26.93.51.3
10. Rhode Island 0.00.10.61.42.74.77.39.712.815.015.513.19.55.32.3
11. Saint Joseph's 0.00.00.10.51.12.24.36.710.914.919.619.112.97.9
12. Fordham 0.00.00.20.61.42.84.97.010.914.816.718.414.57.6
13. Loyola Chicago 0.00.00.00.00.10.41.02.35.510.719.731.029.1
14. La Salle 0.00.00.00.10.10.71.42.95.49.214.222.743.3






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 03 Davidson 54.0% 73 72 46.0% Saint Joseph's
Jan. 03 Dayton 86.4% 80 68 13.6% Loyola Chicago
Jan. 03 VCU 65.4% 84 79 34.6% Duquesne
Jan. 03 Rhode Island 22.1% 63 72 77.9% George Mason
Jan. 03 La Salle 6.0% 66 85 94.0% George Washington
Jan. 04 Richmond 56.0% 68 67 44.0% Fordham
Jan. 06 George Washington 36.8% 76 80 63.2% Dayton
Jan. 07 Davidson 70.5% 76 70 29.5% Loyola Chicago
Jan. 07 Duquesne 55.4% 78 77 44.6% Saint Joseph's
Jan. 07 George Mason 66.1% 68 63 33.9% Fordham
Jan. 07 La Salle 14.7% 61 73 85.3% Rhode Island
Jan. 07 Richmond 34.7% 71 76 65.3% St. Bonaventure
Jan. 07 Saint Louis 54.2% 85 84 45.8% VCU