Atlantic 10
Updated with games through Thursday, November 21
Conference Projections
Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the
Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.
| Atlantic 10 |
Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Conf. |
Overall |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th | 14th | 15th |
| 1. |
Dayton (38) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
13.7 - 4.3 |
21.4 - 6.6 |
43.1 | 21.9 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2. |
VCU (66) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
12.4 - 5.6 |
20.5 - 8.5 |
22.8 | 19.5 | 16.8 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 3. |
George Mason (72) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 3 |
12.2 - 5.8 |
19.5 - 10.5 |
16.7 | 21.0 | 17.4 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4. |
Massachusetts (111) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 3 |
9.4 - 8.6 |
15.5 - 14.5 |
3.2 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 |
| 5. |
Saint Joseph's (119) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
8.9 - 9.1 |
17.6 - 12.4 |
2.0 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 4.6 |
| 6. |
Loyola Chicago (116) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
8.7 - 9.3 |
16.9 - 11.1 |
1.9 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.9 |
| 7. |
St. Bonaventure (122) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
8.5 - 9.5 |
16.9 - 12.1 |
1.9 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 5.2 |
| 8. |
Davidson (129) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 0 |
8.5 - 9.5 |
16.0 - 12.0 |
1.4 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 |
| 9. |
Saint Louis (117) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 1 |
8.4 - 9.6 |
14.8 - 14.2 |
1.9 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 5.5 |
| 10. |
Rhode Island (133) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 0 |
8.2 - 9.8 |
15.3 - 12.7 |
1.6 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.3 |
| 11. |
George Washington (135) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
8.2 - 9.8 |
16.6 - 11.4 |
1.7 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.2 |
| 12. |
Fordham (158) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
7.5 - 10.5 |
14.3 - 14.7 |
0.7 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 10.7 |
| 13. |
La Salle (164) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
7.4 - 10.6 |
13.8 - 14.2 |
0.5 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 9.8 |
| 14. |
Duquesne (172) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 4 |
6.5 - 11.5 |
10.0 - 18.0 |
0.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 13.8 | 18.6 |
| 15. |
Richmond (176) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 3 |
6.5 - 11.5 |
11.0 - 18.0 |
0.3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 14.8 | 17.1 |
This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.
|
Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Outright |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th | 14th | 15th |
| 1. |
Dayton |
35.9 | 50.2 | 20.9 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2. |
VCU |
17.5 | 27.7 | 20.7 | 16.9 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3. |
George Mason |
13.5 | 23.1 | 23.4 | 16.2 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4. |
Massachusetts |
2.2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| 5. |
Saint Joseph's |
1.4 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 3.3 |
| 6. |
Loyola Chicago |
1.2 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 3.5 |
| 7. |
St. Bonaventure |
1.3 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| 8. |
Davidson |
0.9 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 3.9 |
| 9. |
Saint Louis |
1.3 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 |
| 10. |
Rhode Island |
0.9 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 |
| 11. |
George Washington |
1.0 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 5.1 |
| 12. |
Fordham |
0.3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 7.7 |
| 13. |
La Salle |
0.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 7.6 |
| 14. |
Duquesne |
0.2 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 12.2 | 14.5 |
| 15. |
Richmond |
0.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 13.7 |
