Atlantic 10
Updated with games through Friday, January 02
Conference Projections
Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the
Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.
| Atlantic 10 |
Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Conf. |
Overall |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th | 14th |
| 1. |
Saint Louis (31) |
2 - 0 |
13 - 1 |
16.1 - 2.9 |
27.1 - 3.9 |
72.6 | 16.2 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | | | |
| 2. |
George Washington (79) |
1 - 1 |
9 - 5 |
12.7 - 6.3 |
20.7 - 10.3 |
5.7 | 20.7 | 21.4 | 18.2 | 13.7 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| 3. |
VCU (57) |
1 - 1 |
10 - 5 |
12.5 - 6.5 |
21.5 - 10.5 |
8.1 | 21.0 | 19.2 | 16.4 | 12.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4. |
Dayton (84) |
2 - 0 |
11 - 4 |
12.4 - 6.6 |
21.4 - 10.6 |
6.5 | 17.7 | 17.9 | 17.6 | 14.7 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5. |
George Mason (96) |
2 - 0 |
13 - 1 |
12.0 - 7.0 |
23.0 - 8.0 |
5.1 | 15.0 | 16.1 | 15.4 | 14.6 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 6. |
St. Bonaventure (123) |
1 - 1 |
11 - 3 |
10.4 - 8.6 |
20.4 - 10.6 |
1.1 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 10.5 | 13.5 | 15.2 | 15.3 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 7. |
Duquesne (150) |
2 - 0 |
8 - 5 |
9.6 - 9.4 |
15.6 - 14.4 |
0.4 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 13.4 | 15.4 | 14.7 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 8. |
Richmond (125) |
1 - 1 |
10 - 4 |
9.5 - 9.5 |
18.5 - 12.5 |
0.3 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 14.0 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 9. |
Davidson (155) |
0 - 2 |
7 - 6 |
8.2 - 10.8 |
15.2 - 14.8 |
0.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 14.4 | 17.1 | 15.9 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.8 |
| 10. |
Rhode Island (147) |
0 - 2 |
9 - 6 |
7.8 - 11.2 |
16.8 - 15.2 |
0.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 11.5 | 15.7 | 16.8 | 14.6 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 2.9 |
| 11. |
Saint Joseph's (231) |
0 - 1 |
7 - 6 |
6.0 - 12.0 |
13.0 - 17.0 |
| 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 14.4 | 18.6 | 18.7 | 13.9 | 9.0 |
| 12. |
Fordham (208) |
0 - 2 |
6 - 6 |
6.3 - 12.7 |
12.3 - 16.7 |
| 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 14.3 | 17.7 | 19.4 | 16.0 | 9.5 |
| 13. |
Loyola Chicago (302) |
1 - 0 |
5 - 9 |
4.1 - 13.9 |
8.1 - 22.9 |
| | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 18.8 | 32.1 | 30.3 |
| 14. |
La Salle (263) |
0 - 2 |
3 - 11 |
4.1 - 14.9 |
7.1 - 23.9 |
| | | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 8.6 | 14.0 | 23.8 | 45.6 |
Weekly Changes |
| 1. |
Saint Louis (31) |
|
+12.7 | -4.1 | -3.1 | -2.5 | -1.4 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2. |
George Washington (79) |
|
-2.0 | +4.1 | +3.3 | +2.9 | +1.0 | -1.2 | -1.9 | -2.7 | -1.6 | -1.1 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| 3. |
VCU (57) |
|
-5.2 | +1.0 | +2.0 | +2.4 | +2.0 | +0.7 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4. |
Dayton (84) |
|
-1.5 | +2.5 | +2.0 | +2.8 | +1.1 | -0.6 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -0.6 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| 5. |
George Mason (96) |
|
+0.0 | +4.6 | +4.3 | +3.0 | +1.8 | +0.1 | -2.3 | -2.5 | -3.6 | -2.6 | -1.4 | -0.9 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| 6. |
St. Bonaventure (123) |
|
+0.2 | +1.2 | +2.1 | +3.3 | +4.6 | +4.2 | +2.4 | -1.3 | -4.3 | -4.2 | -3.9 | -2.9 | -1.2 | -0.1 |
| 7. |
Duquesne (150) |
|
+0.2 | +1.8 | +3.4 | +5.3 | +6.4 | +8.6 | +8.5 | +5.1 | -1.2 | -7.5 | -11.4 | -11.2 | -5.7 | -2.3 |
| 8. |
Richmond (125) |
|
-1.5 | -3.9 | -3.2 | -3.2 | -1.2 | +0.7 | +2.0 | +2.7 | +1.8 | +1.6 | +2.1 | +1.2 | +0.8 | +0.2 |
| 9. |
Davidson (155) |
|
-1.5 | -3.6 | -5.5 | -6.9 | -6.8 | -5.3 | -2.7 | +1.5 | +5.7 | +7.4 | +7.1 | +5.5 | +3.4 | +1.6 |
| 10. |
Rhode Island (147) |
|
-1.4 | -3.5 | -4.9 | -6.6 | -6.8 | -6.3 | -4.3 | -2.0 | +3.7 | +7.1 | +8.6 | +8.5 | +5.2 | +2.7 |
| 11. |
Saint Joseph's (231) |
|
-0.0 | +0.0 | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.8 | +2.4 | +2.8 | +0.8 | -0.9 | -3.5 | -4.3 | -0.1 |
| 12. |
Fordham (208) |
|
-0.0 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -2.1 | -1.8 | -1.7 | +1.2 | +4.1 | +5.0 |
| 13. |
Loyola Chicago (302) |
|
+0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.6 | +3.5 | +5.7 | +7.7 | +5.6 | -25.4 |
| 14. |
La Salle (263) |
|
+0.0 | +0.0 | -0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -1.4 | -3.0 | -5.2 | -7.2 | +18.4 |
This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.
|
Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Outright |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th | 14th |
| 1. |
Saint Louis |
67.2 | 81.2 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | | | |
| 2. |
George Washington |
3.6 | 8.8 | 26.9 | 21.6 | 17.0 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 3. |
VCU |
4.5 | 10.2 | 23.8 | 20.2 | 16.4 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | | 0.0 |
| 4. |
Dayton |
4.4 | 9.4 | 22.2 | 19.3 | 17.0 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | | 0.0 |
| 5. |
George Mason |
3.0 | 7.0 | 19.2 | 17.4 | 16.1 | 13.4 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6. |
St. Bonaventure |
0.6 | 1.6 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 12.9 | 14.4 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 7. |
Duquesne |
0.2 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 14.0 | 14.8 | 13.5 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 8. |
Richmond |
0.2 | 0.6 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 13.8 | 14.1 | 13.8 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 9. |
Davidson |
0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 14.9 | 15.2 | 14.1 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 10. |
Rhode Island |
0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 15.0 | 15.5 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.3 |
| 11. |
Saint Joseph's |
0.0 | | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 10.9 | 14.9 | 19.6 | 19.1 | 12.9 | 7.9 |
| 12. |
Fordham |
0.0 | | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 14.8 | 16.7 | 18.4 | 14.5 | 7.6 |
| 13. |
Loyola Chicago |
0.0 | | | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 10.7 | 19.7 | 31.0 | 29.1 |
| 14. |
La Salle |
0.0 | | | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 9.2 | 14.2 | 22.7 | 43.3 |