Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Atlantic 10

Updated with games through Wednesday, February 18

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Atlantic 10 Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th
1. Saint Louis (26) 12 - 1 23 - 2 16.3 - 1.7 27.3 - 2.7 93.86.20.0
2. VCU (48) 12 - 2 21 - 6 14.5 - 3.5 23.5 - 7.5 6.292.61.10.1
3. George Mason (111) 9 - 5 20 - 6 10.7 - 7.3 21.7 - 8.3 0.728.123.117.215.79.24.51.5
4. Saint Joseph's (170) 8 - 5 14 - 10 10.7 - 7.3 16.7 - 12.3 0.027.017.720.415.110.95.82.50.50.0
5. Dayton (92) 8 - 5 17 - 9 10.4 - 7.6 19.4 - 11.6 0.521.625.217.013.29.27.35.10.80.1
6. Davidson (120) 7 - 6 14 - 10 10.1 - 7.9 17.1 - 11.9 10.813.815.615.217.213.69.83.90.1
7. Duquesne (142) 8 - 5 14 - 10 9.8 - 8.2 15.8 - 13.2 7.413.717.919.416.613.29.61.90.3
8. George Washington (88) 6 - 8 14 - 12 9.1 - 8.9 17.1 - 12.9 0.00.32.310.620.231.127.37.60.50.1
9. Rhode Island (136) 6 - 7 15 - 11 9.0 - 9.0 18.0 - 13.0 4.16.09.39.812.714.322.419.61.60.30.0
10. Fordham (189) 6 - 8 12 - 12 7.6 - 10.4 13.6 - 14.4 0.00.00.21.13.910.018.939.223.82.60.1
11. Richmond (139) 4 - 10 13 - 13 6.3 - 11.7 15.3 - 14.7 0.12.423.660.511.22.00.2
12. St. Bonaventure (167) 3 - 10 13 - 12 4.7 - 13.3 14.7 - 15.3 0.10.31.68.834.753.01.6
13. La Salle (241) 3 - 10 6 - 19 4.5 - 13.5 7.5 - 22.5 0.00.00.21.34.250.036.97.4
14. Loyola Chicago (310) 2 - 12 6 - 21 2.5 - 15.5 6.5 - 24.5 0.21.18.090.8
Weekly Changes
1. Saint Louis (26) -4.6+4.6+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. VCU (48) +4.7+9.6-13.2-0.8-0.2-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
3. George Mason (111) -0.1-13.9-30.3+7.9+10.9+12.3+7.8+4.0+1.4+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
4. Saint Joseph's (170) +0.0-0.1+19.3-2.5-3.4-4.5-2.9-3.5-1.7-0.6-0.3-0.0+0.0+0.0
5. Dayton (92) +0.0-0.1+15.8+13.5+1.8-1.9-6.0-6.7-7.8-6.2-2.1-0.4-0.0+0.0
6. Davidson (120) +0.0-0.1+3.5-14.5-3.6+0.8+5.4+5.1+3.8+1.1-1.0-0.4-0.0+0.0
7. Duquesne (142) +0.0-0.1+3.6+3.3+5.2+4.0+0.1-2.1-4.4-5.7-2.8-0.9-0.2+0.0
8. George Washington (88) +0.0-0.0-0.9-3.1-7.0-6.0-0.3+8.0+9.9+1.8-1.8-0.6-0.1+0.0
9. Rhode Island (136) +0.0+0.0+2.1-3.5-3.0-2.9-2.4-1.7+5.8+10.7-3.0-1.6-0.5+0.0
10. Fordham (189) +0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+2.1+5.6+10.6+21.4-11.5-22.0-5.9-0.5
11. Richmond (139) +0.0+0.0-0.0-0.2-0.4-0.9-2.3-5.8-12.0-12.6+36.5-2.3+0.1+0.1
12. St. Bonaventure (167) +0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.3-1.0-1.3-2.7-5.1-9.8-10.9-1.6+31.7+1.1
13. La Salle (241) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-3.1+29.6-21.2-4.4
14. Loyola Chicago (310) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1-3.8+3.7


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th
1. Saint Louis 86.495.74.3
2. VCU 4.313.686.30.1
3. George Mason 0.00.845.023.317.48.63.21.50.2
4. Saint Joseph's 0.00.445.121.116.19.14.92.60.80.0
5. Dayton 0.00.633.322.218.09.18.15.82.80.2
6. Davidson 0.00.025.320.118.111.512.07.64.40.80.0
7. Duquesne 0.016.218.518.913.814.111.66.20.7
8. George Washington 0.01.08.517.315.519.721.314.32.20.20.0
9. Rhode Island 0.04.78.512.110.916.418.419.78.30.90.1
10. Fordham 0.00.10.20.72.05.810.021.250.98.90.3
11. Richmond 0.00.11.45.424.557.09.81.70.0
12. St. Bonaventure 0.00.10.43.618.649.926.70.7
13. La Salle 0.00.00.10.32.710.945.439.61.0
14. Loyola Chicago 0.00.22.410.986.4






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Feb. 20 VCU 17.6% 78 90 82.4% Saint Louis
Feb. 21 Davidson 52.8% 64 63 47.2% Fordham
Feb. 21 Duquesne 21.6% 71 81 78.4% Dayton
Feb. 21 Rhode Island 62.1% 67 64 37.9% La Salle
Feb. 21 Loyola Chicago 11.0% 64 79 89.0% Saint Joseph's
Feb. 21 St. Bonaventure 28.8% 73 80 71.2% Richmond
Feb. 24 Saint Louis 73.5% 82 75 26.5% Dayton
Feb. 24 George Washington 76.4% 78 70 23.6% La Salle
Feb. 25 Davidson 41.9% 72 75 58.1% Duquesne
Feb. 25 George Mason 51.6% 69 68 48.4% Saint Joseph's
Feb. 25 Rhode Island 44.3% 71 73 55.7% St. Bonaventure