Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

ACC

Updated with games through Thursday, November 21

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

ACC Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th
1. Duke (6) 0 - 0 3 - 1 16.1 - 3.9 24.4 - 6.6 42.223.214.68.64.73.01.41.00.60.30.10.10.10.00.00.0
2. Pittsburgh (12) 0 - 0 5 - 0 14.9 - 5.1 23.7 - 6.3 19.323.218.513.29.36.23.92.51.51.00.60.40.20.20.10.00.0
3. North Carolina (9) 0 - 0 2 - 1 14.8 - 5.2 23.2 - 7.8 20.320.618.814.19.06.63.62.61.81.00.60.40.30.10.10.10.00.0
4. Clemson (20) 0 - 0 4 - 1 13.7 - 6.3 21.3 - 8.7 10.814.215.814.611.79.26.75.03.82.51.91.30.90.60.50.30.10.1
5. Notre Dame (49) 0 - 0 4 - 0 11.4 - 8.6 19.6 - 11.4 2.04.97.19.910.610.99.88.87.76.65.34.53.52.92.01.61.20.6
6. Miami FL (50) 0 - 0 3 - 1 11.0 - 9.0 18.2 - 11.8 1.43.15.58.410.310.410.59.78.67.06.35.04.23.12.12.11.50.8
7. Stanford (60) 0 - 0 5 - 0 10.6 - 9.4 19.9 - 11.1 0.52.34.16.79.110.410.29.98.97.97.46.15.13.93.12.31.40.8
8. SMU (59) 0 - 0 4 - 1 10.5 - 9.5 18.3 - 11.7 1.22.84.76.98.39.69.59.18.57.76.65.95.24.23.42.72.31.4
9. Louisville (61) 0 - 0 2 - 1 10.2 - 9.8 15.9 - 13.1 1.32.64.35.67.27.98.79.18.68.47.46.85.55.13.93.42.61.7
10. North Carolina St. (74) 0 - 0 4 - 0 9.2 - 10.8 16.8 - 13.2 0.41.22.13.55.16.17.47.78.58.88.27.87.76.86.05.63.93.2
11. Syracuse (79) 0 - 0 3 - 1 8.2 - 11.8 15.1 - 15.9 0.20.51.11.92.93.85.06.37.28.68.58.78.88.38.57.76.95.1
12. California (87) 0 - 0 4 - 1 8.2 - 11.8 16.3 - 14.7 0.10.20.81.72.53.95.56.57.28.38.89.39.29.08.37.56.74.4
13. Virginia (98) 0 - 0 3 - 1 7.6 - 12.4 15.1 - 15.9 0.10.20.71.32.42.84.24.95.86.87.68.58.49.59.610.09.87.6
14. Georgia Tech (94) 0 - 0 2 - 2 7.5 - 12.5 13.9 - 17.1 0.10.20.61.32.42.93.84.95.76.37.18.18.79.410.59.49.58.9
15. Florida St. (95) 0 - 0 4 - 1 7.3 - 12.7 15.8 - 16.2 0.10.20.61.01.82.43.74.24.86.07.37.98.59.910.210.710.410.2
16. Wake Forest (99) 0 - 0 5 - 1 6.8 - 13.2 13.8 - 16.2 0.10.20.40.51.11.62.93.64.75.26.67.49.29.711.411.312.411.9
17. Virginia Tech (109) 0 - 0 3 - 2 6.4 - 13.6 12.6 - 17.4 0.00.10.30.60.91.61.92.73.84.55.36.48.19.410.712.214.417.0
18. Boston College (136) 0 - 0 3 - 1 5.6 - 14.4 12.7 - 16.3 0.10.10.20.50.81.11.72.33.24.05.56.57.89.813.216.826.3


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th
1. Duke 34.749.222.513.07.13.42.11.10.70.40.20.00.10.00.00.00.0
2. Pittsburgh 15.225.624.317.312.27.84.93.21.81.20.70.40.30.20.10.10.0
3. North Carolina 15.925.921.718.212.88.05.13.02.11.20.80.50.30.20.10.00.10.0
4. Clemson 7.514.316.717.114.610.97.85.74.32.81.81.41.00.60.40.30.10.10.0
5. Notre Dame 1.33.26.38.811.011.411.09.88.57.05.85.03.42.92.11.61.20.70.4
6. Miami FL 0.92.24.57.09.510.710.910.99.77.66.45.74.33.22.51.91.51.00.4
7. Stanford 0.41.13.55.58.710.211.19.99.98.67.16.65.24.23.02.31.81.00.4
8. SMU 0.71.93.85.78.19.810.09.89.28.27.45.95.14.33.52.82.11.70.9
9. Louisville 0.71.73.55.06.68.28.99.49.68.67.86.96.04.84.23.22.61.81.1
10. North Carolina St. 0.30.71.62.94.25.87.28.18.69.08.58.37.56.76.15.14.13.22.3
11. Syracuse 0.10.40.81.52.53.54.66.07.37.89.08.59.08.57.57.66.65.43.6
12. California 0.10.20.51.32.23.45.26.36.98.18.69.58.98.87.97.46.25.43.3
13. Virginia 0.10.20.41.11.82.83.84.85.66.67.47.89.08.69.39.08.87.55.4
14. Georgia Tech 0.00.10.31.01.82.93.54.85.66.47.18.18.49.08.99.68.57.76.3
15. Florida St. 0.10.10.40.71.52.43.34.15.05.47.08.08.58.89.69.49.28.97.5
16. Wake Forest 0.00.10.20.50.91.42.33.84.15.36.47.27.99.110.110.810.210.89.0
17. Virginia Tech 0.00.00.20.40.81.32.02.63.24.45.26.47.28.79.410.511.812.713.1
18. Boston College 0.00.00.10.20.30.70.91.62.33.24.05.06.27.18.610.313.215.820.6






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Nov. 22 Duke 44.0% 77 79 56.0% Arizona
Nov. 22 Elon 7.0% 60 77 93.0% Notre Dame
Nov. 22 Temple 37.4% 72 76 62.6% Florida St.
Nov. 22 North Carolina 94.8% 85 65 5.2% Hawaii
Nov. 22 Pittsburgh 79.8% 78 68 20.2% LSU
Nov. 22 Winthrop 10.9% 65 80 89.1% Louisville
Nov. 22 Mississippi St. 42.7% 75 77 57.3% SMU
Nov. 22 William & Mary 8.4% 68 85 91.6% North Carolina St.
Nov. 22 Miami FL 62.5% 78 74 37.5% Oklahoma St.
Nov. 22 Syracuse 26.4% 74 82 73.6% Texas Tech
Nov. 22 St. John's 78.2% 70 62 21.8% Virginia
Nov. 23 Cincinnati 78.9% 78 69 21.1% Georgia Tech
Nov. 23 Detroit 6.7% 60 79 93.3% Wake Forest
Nov. 23 Stanford 51.3% 76 75 48.7% Santa Clara
Nov. 23 North Carolina 94.8% 85 65 5.2% Hawaii
Nov. 24 Old Dominion 14.7% 66 78 85.3% Boston College
Nov. 24 Sacramento St. 6.8% 59 77 93.2% California
Nov. 24 Massachusetts 43.2% 75 77 56.8% Florida St.
Nov. 25 San Francisco 38.6% 68 72 61.4% Clemson
Nov. 25 North Carolina 74.9% 80 73 25.1% Dayton
Nov. 25 Virginia Tech 27.2% 71 78 72.8% Michigan
Nov. 26 SMU 85.8% 84 71 14.2% California Baptist
Nov. 26 Kansas 41.2% 74 76 58.8% Duke
Nov. 26 Stanford 66.5% 77 73 33.5% Grand Canyon
Nov. 26 Manhattan 5.8% 53 70 94.2% Virginia
Nov. 26 Rutgers 41.4% 64 66 58.6% Notre Dame
Nov. 26 Western Carolina 8.8% 65 82 91.2% Florida St.
Nov. 27 Mercyhurst 6.7% 61 79 93.3% California
Nov. 27 Charleston Southern 9.7% 66 82 90.3% Georgia Tech
Nov. 27 Cornell 17.3% 76 88 82.7% Syracuse
Nov. 27 Western Carolina 15.2% 67 80 84.8% Florida St.
Nov. 27 Louisville 32.5% 69 74 67.5% Indiana
Nov. 28 Wake Forest 18.8% 72 83 81.2% Florida
Nov. 28 Notre Dame 12.2% 56 69 87.8% Houston
Nov. 28 Purdue 76.5% 79 71 23.5% North Carolina St.