Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

ACC

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

ACC Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th
1. Duke (3) 0 - 0 10 - 0 15.5 - 2.5 27.7 - 3.3 70.415.96.63.21.91.10.40.30.20.10.00.00.0
2. Louisville (14) 0 - 0 8 - 1 11.8 - 5.2 22.8 - 7.2 8.117.015.713.511.99.57.95.54.22.51.81.10.70.40.20.0
3. Clemson (28) 0 - 0 7 - 3 11.8 - 6.2 21.4 - 9.6 4.514.614.012.910.99.88.26.85.94.23.11.91.60.90.50.20.10.0
4. North Carolina St. (26) 0 - 0 7 - 3 11.4 - 6.6 20.6 - 10.4 4.610.712.011.410.99.79.88.16.75.83.72.81.81.10.60.30.10.0
5. Virginia (32) 0 - 0 9 - 1 10.7 - 6.3 22.0 - 8.0 2.58.511.411.711.810.89.98.57.06.04.33.31.91.20.60.30.10.1
6. Miami FL (37) 0 - 0 8 - 2 11.2 - 6.8 22.2 - 8.8 3.09.410.310.711.110.29.88.87.66.54.73.12.11.40.70.40.20.1
7. North Carolina (25) 0 - 0 8 - 1 11.2 - 6.8 22.6 - 8.4 4.19.610.711.610.910.99.38.57.55.74.12.91.81.30.50.40.10.1
8. SMU (35) 0 - 0 9 - 1 10.3 - 7.7 21.7 - 9.3 1.26.77.38.18.79.99.79.59.07.86.45.13.93.21.91.00.50.1
9. Wake Forest (47) 0 - 0 7 - 3 9.2 - 8.8 18.4 - 12.6 0.42.64.05.05.97.38.49.29.69.69.18.06.75.73.92.41.40.7
10. California (57) 0 - 0 8 - 1 9.1 - 8.9 19.9 - 10.1 0.72.63.44.75.66.77.28.69.29.910.28.37.35.84.52.81.70.9
11. Notre Dame (59) 0 - 0 8 - 3 8.8 - 9.2 18.7 - 12.3 0.51.72.83.84.75.96.98.39.010.29.99.88.76.75.23.51.70.7
12. Virginia Tech (71) 0 - 0 9 - 2 7.5 - 10.5 18.4 - 12.6 0.00.30.61.42.03.04.15.77.49.110.812.212.411.68.56.13.41.3
13. Syracuse (86) 0 - 0 6 - 3 6.9 - 11.1 16.5 - 14.5 0.00.20.60.91.62.03.24.35.77.39.410.911.610.911.58.96.54.3
14. Florida St. (91) 0 - 0 5 - 4 6.4 - 11.6 14.4 - 16.6 0.00.10.30.70.91.42.33.14.45.77.59.511.212.012.812.49.75.9
15. Stanford (97) 0 - 0 7 - 2 5.9 - 12.1 15.5 - 15.5 0.00.10.20.30.60.91.52.43.04.26.38.310.012.414.714.312.58.3
16. Pittsburgh (104) 0 - 0 5 - 5 5.5 - 12.5 12.2 - 18.8 0.00.10.20.40.81.11.92.63.85.57.39.711.513.215.213.712.9
17. Georgia Tech (156) 0 - 0 6 - 4 3.9 - 14.1 12.4 - 18.6 0.00.00.00.10.30.40.81.53.04.47.311.116.424.530.2
18. Boston College (159) 0 - 0 5 - 6 3.8 - 14.2 10.6 - 20.4 0.00.00.10.10.30.50.81.62.54.36.69.515.523.834.3
Weekly Changes
1. Duke (3) +2.5-1.0-0.6-0.8+0.0+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Louisville (14) -0.4+0.1+0.2+0.1+0.7-0.2+0.7+0.3-0.2-0.5-0.2-0.3-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0
3. Clemson (28) +0.7+2.6+1.5+0.9-0.5-0.3-0.6-0.9-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.9-0.2-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.1-0.0
4. North Carolina St. (26) +1.0+1.9+2.6+1.4+0.7+0.2-0.0-0.6-0.5-0.1-1.6-1.1-1.0-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.3-0.1
5. Virginia (32) -0.8-2.3-0.9-0.3+0.1+0.4+1.2+1.1+0.7+1.0+0.4+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.1-0.1
6. Miami FL (37) -0.1+0.6+0.3+0.1+0.9+0.6+0.7+0.3-0.2+0.4-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.7-0.3-0.2-0.1
7. North Carolina (25) -2.2-3.0-2.9-0.5-0.0+1.0+0.8+1.5+1.8+1.4+0.7+0.6+0.3+0.4-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0
8. SMU (35) -0.1+1.0+0.5+0.4-0.1+0.8+0.9+0.1+0.7-0.2-0.2-0.8-0.6-0.5-0.8-0.5-0.5-0.2
9. Wake Forest (47) -0.1+0.5+0.7+0.9+0.7+0.9+1.0+1.4+1.1+1.2+0.1+0.0-1.1-0.9-1.5-1.9-2.0-1.1
10. California (57) -0.0+0.3+0.2-0.2+0.3+0.2-0.1-0.1+0.6+1.0+1.6+0.3-0.3+0.1-0.8-1.3-1.0-0.7
11. Notre Dame (59) -0.0+0.3+0.2+0.1+0.5+0.5+0.5+1.2+0.9+0.9+0.2+0.7+0.1-0.3-1.3-1.5-1.8-1.1
12. Virginia Tech (71) -0.1+0.0-0.3+0.0+0.0+0.3+0.1+1.1+1.2+1.1+1.7+1.7+1.8-0.1-2.0-2.4-2.4-1.7
13. Syracuse (86) -0.1-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.8-1.4-1.4-1.5-0.8-1.1+0.1+1.4+1.5+1.2+3.1+0.8+0.2+0.3
14. Florida St. (91) -0.0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.8-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.9-0.3+1.0+0.9+1.1+0.8+1.7+0.9-0.1-1.0
15. Stanford (97) -0.1-0.3-0.5-0.8-1.2-1.2-1.7-1.6-1.9-1.8-1.0-0.1+0.1+1.1+2.9+2.9+3.4+1.9
16. Pittsburgh (104) -0.0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.7-0.4-1.0-0.7-0.5-0.0+0.7+1.0+0.8+2.0-0.0+0.2
17. Georgia Tech (156) +0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.1+0.2+0.5+1.5+1.8+2.1+0.8-5.9
18. Boston College (159) -0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.5-1.1-1.3-1.6-1.6-2.2-2.0-1.7-1.4+0.4+4.2+9.5


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th
1. Duke 65.175.114.25.22.61.50.70.30.20.10.00.00.0
2. Louisville 7.88.217.315.913.611.89.47.65.54.12.51.81.10.70.30.20.0
3. Clemson 3.67.016.615.413.410.810.07.75.94.63.32.51.20.90.40.20.10.00.0
4. North Carolina St. 2.85.912.813.112.310.510.49.37.46.04.62.92.11.30.80.30.20.10.0
5. Virginia 2.32.89.611.711.611.610.59.48.36.95.94.33.31.91.20.60.30.10.1
6. Miami FL 1.94.411.912.011.811.610.99.38.06.54.83.42.21.50.80.50.10.10.0
7. North Carolina 2.75.511.311.812.311.010.99.48.36.24.43.52.51.40.90.40.20.00.0
8. SMU 0.92.27.88.38.79.510.79.89.68.66.95.84.33.42.31.30.50.30.1
9. Wake Forest 0.30.83.54.75.37.18.58.79.69.79.58.87.46.04.72.61.90.90.3
10. California 0.41.03.24.45.46.67.68.29.99.710.69.27.46.04.23.12.11.00.4
11. Notre Dame 0.30.72.23.54.75.47.18.49.410.010.19.79.37.15.23.52.20.90.4
12. Virginia Tech 0.00.10.51.11.92.73.55.16.88.59.611.612.311.69.97.04.82.40.8
13. Syracuse 0.00.10.40.71.32.02.73.84.96.98.110.211.311.611.310.27.24.92.5
14. Florida St. 0.00.00.20.50.81.42.02.93.85.36.98.710.611.811.911.610.17.44.0
15. Stanford 0.00.00.10.30.50.81.22.12.74.05.27.49.411.013.013.713.19.65.7
16. Pittsburgh 0.00.00.10.10.40.51.01.52.43.54.66.78.510.812.213.414.311.58.6
17. Georgia Tech 0.00.00.10.10.20.40.71.22.23.85.58.812.617.622.524.5
18. Boston College 0.00.00.10.10.20.50.71.22.13.75.28.211.516.223.826.4






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 13 Northwestern St. 3.0% 63 86 97.0% California
Dec. 13 Mercer 4.8% 65 85 95.2% Clemson
Dec. 13 Evansville 5.0% 60 80 95.0% Notre Dame
Dec. 13 Massachusetts 22.5% 74 84 77.5% Florida St.
Dec. 13 Hofstra 23.6% 65 73 76.4% Syracuse
Dec. 13 Kansas 46.6% 76 77 53.4% North Carolina St.
Dec. 13 Louisiana Monroe 0.7% 60 97 99.3% Miami FL
Dec. 13 SMU 50.0% 78 79 50.0% LSU
Dec. 13 Memphis 7.4% 69 87 92.6% Louisville
Dec. 13 USC Upstate 2.5% 62 89 97.5% North Carolina
Dec. 13 Pittsburgh 19.2% 65 74 80.8% Villanova
Dec. 13 Stanford 63.7% 75 71 36.3% San Jose St.
Dec. 14 Md Eastern Shore 1.5% 53 80 98.5% Virginia Tech
Dec. 14 Queens 6.4% 70 90 93.6% Wake Forest
Dec. 16 South Carolina 13.8% 65 77 86.2% Clemson
Dec. 16 Florida St. 30.0% 75 81 70.0% Dayton
Dec. 16 Lipscomb 1.6% 60 89 98.4% Duke
Dec. 16 East Tennessee St. 8.5% 66 83 91.5% North Carolina
Dec. 16 FIU 3.9% 64 88 96.1% Miami FL
Dec. 16 Marist 31.6% 60 66 68.4% Georgia Tech
Dec. 16 Louisville 42.0% 76 79 58.0% Tennessee
Dec. 17 Binghamton 2.1% 57 82 97.9% Pittsburgh
Dec. 17 Longwood 2.6% 65 93 97.4% Wake Forest
Dec. 17 Mercyhurst 3.7% 55 77 96.3% Syracuse
Dec. 17 Texas Southern 1.7% 63 93 98.3% North Carolina St.
Dec. 17 UT Arlington 19.0% 66 77 81.0% Stanford