Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

ACC

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

ACC Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th
1. Duke (2) 8 - 0 19 - 1 16.8 - 1.2 28.3 - 2.7 94.15.00.70.20.00.0
2. Virginia (21) 6 - 2 17 - 3 13.6 - 4.4 25.3 - 5.7 3.454.622.310.75.12.31.00.40.20.00.00.0
3. Clemson (34) 7 - 1 17 - 4 13.0 - 5.0 23.0 - 8.0 1.721.729.919.812.07.64.31.90.80.20.10.0
4. North Carolina St. (24) 6 - 2 15 - 6 11.7 - 6.3 20.7 - 10.3 0.78.014.316.416.715.412.78.94.31.80.50.20.10.0
5. Miami FL (38) 5 - 2 16 - 4 11.4 - 6.6 22.4 - 8.6 0.13.97.912.416.316.515.913.48.33.31.30.40.10.0
6. SMU (30) 4 - 3 15 - 5 11.2 - 6.8 22.2 - 8.8 2.07.514.617.816.916.311.77.53.11.50.70.20.00.00.0
7. Louisville (16) 4 - 4 14 - 6 11.1 - 6.9 21.9 - 9.1 2.310.815.016.516.614.712.46.92.71.40.40.20.10.0
8. North Carolina (26) 4 - 3 16 - 4 10.6 - 7.4 22.6 - 8.4 0.12.35.37.810.014.116.817.713.77.23.01.50.30.10.00.0
9. California (57) 3 - 4 14 - 5 9.2 - 8.8 20.2 - 9.8 0.11.02.24.17.010.214.918.316.711.26.53.52.41.30.50.20.1
10. Virginia Tech (58) 5 - 4 16 - 6 8.4 - 9.6 19.4 - 11.6 0.00.10.40.81.63.78.618.826.020.511.84.72.00.80.10.00.0
11. Stanford (79) 3 - 4 14 - 6 7.5 - 10.5 18.5 - 12.5 0.10.30.71.62.95.59.414.016.014.712.79.36.23.81.90.9
12. Wake Forest (65) 2 - 6 11 - 10 6.8 - 11.2 15.8 - 15.2 0.00.00.10.30.92.86.911.916.316.414.410.68.25.83.71.9
13. Notre Dame (77) 2 - 6 11 - 10 6.2 - 11.8 15.2 - 15.8 0.00.00.20.61.74.510.915.718.217.412.79.26.02.8
14. Syracuse (84) 3 - 5 12 - 9 6.2 - 11.8 15.2 - 15.8 0.00.10.30.91.94.89.216.420.418.913.67.84.11.6
15. Florida St. (105) 1 - 6 8 - 12 5.0 - 13.0 12.0 - 19.0 0.10.20.81.83.45.28.011.816.517.117.517.6
16. Pittsburgh (106) 2 - 6 9 - 12 4.6 - 13.4 11.6 - 19.4 0.10.20.81.93.87.010.915.719.920.619.0
17. Boston College (153) 2 - 5 9 - 11 4.3 - 13.7 11.3 - 19.7 0.10.20.71.73.25.68.112.216.321.330.6
18. Georgia Tech (135) 2 - 6 11 - 10 4.3 - 13.7 13.3 - 17.7 0.00.10.10.41.13.04.88.312.819.424.625.4
Weekly Changes
1. Duke (2) +7.6-5.9-1.3-0.2-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Virginia (21) -7.2-7.5+5.6+4.4+2.4+1.3+0.7+0.3+0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
3. Clemson (34) -0.4+6.0-4.6-1.1-1.0+0.8+0.7-0.0-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
4. North Carolina St. (24) +0.1+3.9+3.6+1.1-0.6-1.3-1.4+0.8-1.6-1.7-1.5-0.8-0.4-0.2-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
5. Miami FL (38) +0.0+1.9+1.6+0.8+1.7-1.1-0.9+1.5+0.1-1.9-1.6-1.0-0.6-0.3-0.1-0.0+0.0-0.0
6. SMU (30) -0.0+0.5-0.4-2.2-1.6-1.6+2.0+2.4+2.2-0.2-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
7. Louisville (16) -0.2-0.8-7.5-5.9-1.8+2.2+5.0+5.4+2.7+0.5+0.4+0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
8. North Carolina (26) +0.1+1.8+3.2+4.1+4.3+5.0+4.2+1.4-1.1-5.3-5.9-4.8-3.6-2.0-0.9-0.4-0.1-0.1
9. California (57) +0.0+0.1+0.5+1.1+1.5+2.6+2.9+4.0+6.4+4.3-0.8-4.9-6.0-4.5-3.2-2.2-1.1-0.6
10. Virginia Tech (58) +0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.4-0.3+1.5+8.0+11.5+4.3-3.6-8.3-6.6-3.6-1.7-0.7-0.1
11. Stanford (79) +0.0-0.1-0.7-1.6-2.8-3.7-6.0-6.0-3.4+2.1+4.2+5.0+4.5+3.3+2.0+1.7+0.9+0.6
12. Wake Forest (65) +0.0+0.0-0.0-0.2-0.5-1.0-1.8-2.6-2.4+0.4+3.4+2.2+1.7-0.7-0.0+0.6+0.6+0.3
13. Notre Dame (77) +0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.2-0.6-1.0-1.9-2.6-2.2+1.7+4.2+2.5+0.1-0.6+0.2+0.4+0.1
14. Syracuse (84) +0.0-0.0-0.1-0.3-1.1-2.0-3.7-6.2-7.6-6.8-4.3+1.8+7.0+7.8+7.2+4.5+2.7+1.2
15. Florida St. (105) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.6+1.0+1.6+1.9+0.9-0.4-3.2-3.3+1.0
16. Pittsburgh (106) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.7-1.0-0.6-0.6-1.1-2.4+1.1+3.5+2.9
17. Boston College (153) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.8+1.3+2.6+3.1+4.5+3.0-0.8-14.5
18. Georgia Tech (135) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.5+0.1-0.1+0.3-2.3-3.6-2.1+9.4


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th
1. Duke 91.997.72.00.20.10.0
2. Virginia 1.35.160.320.28.43.61.60.60.20.10.00.0
3. Clemson 0.82.937.029.815.38.24.01.80.70.30.1
4. North Carolina St. 0.10.812.217.419.017.213.99.46.32.60.80.30.10.0
5. Miami FL 0.00.29.313.717.816.915.111.98.24.11.80.80.20.1
6. SMU 0.00.16.613.416.416.515.213.49.45.62.20.80.30.10.00.0
7. Louisville 0.00.15.712.616.317.016.513.210.65.51.60.70.30.10.0
8. North Carolina 0.00.22.67.310.813.816.917.615.49.14.01.60.60.20.0
9. California 0.00.61.83.56.68.712.516.720.913.37.83.82.30.90.50.10.10.0
10. Virginia Tech 0.00.00.20.71.43.06.612.222.326.316.27.32.61.00.30.1
11. Stanford 0.00.00.10.41.02.03.67.212.717.219.914.410.35.83.11.50.50.2
12. Wake Forest 0.00.00.10.20.71.74.18.312.717.317.914.210.26.53.51.70.8
13. Notre Dame 0.00.00.00.20.51.43.68.414.418.018.514.210.05.93.41.5
14. Syracuse 0.00.00.00.20.71.53.77.413.017.819.316.710.95.52.50.8
15. Florida St. 0.00.00.10.51.23.35.58.711.214.716.614.112.411.7
16. Pittsburgh 0.00.00.10.41.22.65.59.413.618.220.117.011.9
17. Boston College 0.00.00.10.31.12.34.57.111.115.819.320.318.1
18. Georgia Tech 0.00.00.00.10.30.92.74.27.010.414.820.121.318.0






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 28 California 53.5% 79 78 46.5% Florida St.
Jan. 28 Stanford 18.0% 71 82 82.0% Miami FL
Jan. 31 Virginia 87.5% 75 62 12.5% Boston College
Jan. 31 California 24.1% 71 79 75.9% Miami FL
Jan. 31 Pittsburgh 10.8% 61 75 89.2% Clemson
Jan. 31 Duke 87.4% 82 69 12.6% Virginia Tech
Jan. 31 Stanford 44.3% 79 81 55.7% Florida St.
Jan. 31 North Carolina 82.7% 83 71 17.3% Georgia Tech
Jan. 31 SMU 22.3% 78 87 77.7% Louisville
Jan. 31 North Carolina St. 64.0% 81 77 36.0% Wake Forest
Jan. 31 Notre Dame 36.2% 70 74 63.8% Syracuse
Feb. 02 Syracuse 11.7% 69 83 88.3% North Carolina
Feb. 03 Boston College 1.1% 52 83 98.9% Duke
Feb. 03 North Carolina St. 40.0% 81 84 60.0% SMU
Feb. 03 Pittsburgh 7.1% 65 82 92.9% Virginia