Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Atlantic Sun

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Atlantic Sun Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Lipscomb (133) 0 - 0 5 - 4 13.4 - 4.6 18.7 - 10.3 47.521.512.67.54.52.81.90.90.50.20.10.0
2. Austin Peay (171) 0 - 0 3 - 5 11.6 - 6.4 15.8 - 12.2 17.519.617.014.110.27.65.43.52.41.40.90.2
3. Queens (192) 0 - 0 3 - 5 10.9 - 7.1 15.0 - 15.0 11.916.114.913.311.09.57.55.83.93.22.10.8
4. Florida Gulf Coast (201) 0 - 0 4 - 5 10.4 - 7.6 14.6 - 14.4 8.712.914.213.912.310.58.37.35.23.81.91.0
5. North Alabama (226) 0 - 0 3 - 4 10.0 - 8.0 13.8 - 13.2 5.210.212.412.813.212.310.38.56.64.52.81.3
6. Eastern Kentucky (235) 0 - 0 1 - 7 9.2 - 8.8 11.1 - 17.9 4.27.19.110.711.711.910.710.29.07.75.22.4
7. Central Arkansas (281) 0 - 0 3 - 6 8.3 - 9.7 11.3 - 17.7 1.23.85.58.09.411.212.512.211.910.28.35.6
8. West Georgia (286) 0 - 0 4 - 4 8.0 - 10.0 12.6 - 15.4 1.43.35.16.78.49.511.811.511.911.810.97.7
9. Jacksonville (284) 0 - 0 3 - 5 7.8 - 10.2 11.5 - 17.5 1.32.84.46.08.210.011.112.313.012.611.17.3
10. Bellarmine (291) 0 - 0 2 - 5 6.9 - 11.1 10.0 - 18.0 0.61.52.63.75.56.88.911.613.615.416.812.8
11. North Florida (310) 0 - 0 0 - 7 6.6 - 11.4 7.1 - 21.9 0.40.81.92.84.35.78.410.913.816.617.816.5
12. Stetson (341) 0 - 0 2 - 8 4.8 - 13.2 6.8 - 22.2 0.00.20.30.51.22.23.25.28.212.622.144.4
Weekly Changes
1. Lipscomb (133) +18.2+1.9-2.3-3.1-3.4-3.5-2.6-1.9-1.4-1.0-0.6-0.3
2. Austin Peay (171) -5.4+0.1+1.9+2.0+1.1+0.6-0.1-0.3-0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1
3. Queens (192) -3.1+1.4+1.2+1.8+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.4-1.0-0.1-0.2-0.3
4. Florida Gulf Coast (201) -0.3+2.2+3.1+2.2+0.8-0.0-1.6-1.5-1.3-1.3-1.6-0.8
5. North Alabama (226) -0.9+1.3+1.5+1.2+1.2+1.2-0.2-0.8-0.6-1.8-1.5-0.5
6. Eastern Kentucky (235) -2.3-1.2-0.2+0.1+1.1+0.8+0.1+0.5+0.2+0.9-0.0+0.1
7. Central Arkansas (281) -0.6-0.0-0.3+1.0+1.1+0.9+1.8+0.2-0.7-1.2-1.1-1.1
8. West Georgia (286) -2.8-2.7-2.3-1.7-1.1-0.7+1.3+0.4+1.3+2.0+3.3+2.9
9. Jacksonville (284) -2.4-2.2-2.1-2.7-1.6-0.5-0.4+1.0+1.7+2.7+3.7+2.8
10. Bellarmine (291) +0.2+0.4+0.9+0.8+1.5+1.6+2.2+2.4+0.5-0.7-5.7-4.0
11. North Florida (310) -0.4-1.2-1.3-1.3-1.1-1.3-0.4+0.0+0.5+0.0+2.4+4.1
12. Stetson (341) -0.0+0.0-0.1-0.3+0.1+0.4-0.0+0.4+0.8+0.3+1.2-2.8


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Lipscomb 41.055.720.210.46.23.32.01.10.50.30.20.10.0
2. Austin Peay 13.522.821.916.813.18.96.63.83.01.60.90.60.1
3. Queens 8.215.018.616.013.410.58.65.84.83.12.41.40.5
4. Florida Gulf Coast 6.111.715.114.914.511.89.77.46.24.02.81.30.6
5. North Alabama 3.87.913.113.713.912.611.78.97.15.03.31.90.9
6. Eastern Kentucky 2.75.98.510.711.612.011.710.79.67.86.33.61.6
7. Central Arkansas 0.92.25.37.29.110.512.211.911.810.88.56.73.7
8. West Georgia 0.82.14.56.58.18.911.011.711.411.110.68.85.2
9. Jacksonville 0.92.13.75.77.39.211.011.012.112.211.68.95.3
10. Bellarmine 0.30.92.03.34.86.28.39.612.813.514.514.19.9
11. North Florida 0.20.61.22.64.05.26.89.612.213.815.815.612.6
12. Stetson 0.00.10.30.30.81.82.84.16.68.914.322.038.0






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 12 East Tennessee St. 55.3% 70 69 44.7% Austin Peay
Dec. 12 South Carolina St. 6.4% 68 87 93.6% Queens
Dec. 13 Northern Kentucky 48.7% 75 76 51.3% Bellarmine
Dec. 13 Central Arkansas 0.8% 61 96 99.2% Vanderbilt
Dec. 13 North Florida 4.0% 70 93 96.0% Dayton
Dec. 13 Miami OH 65.2% 83 79 34.8% Eastern Kentucky
Dec. 13 Georgia Southern 44.4% 78 79 55.6% West Georgia
Dec. 14 Florida Gulf Coast 7.4% 71 90 92.6% New Mexico
Dec. 14 Jacksonville 4.4% 63 84 95.6% Texas A&M
Dec. 14 Queens 6.4% 70 90 93.6% Wake Forest
Dec. 15 North Alabama 61.8% 71 68 38.2% Alabama A&M
Dec. 16 Queens 2.9% 69 95 97.1% Arkansas
Dec. 16 Lipscomb 1.6% 60 89 98.4% Duke
Dec. 17 Chattanooga 44.5% 74 75 55.5% Bellarmine
Dec. 17 Eastern Kentucky 41.2% 70 72 58.8% Jacksonville St.
Dec. 17 Jacksonville 55.3% 70 69 44.7% Florida A&M
Dec. 18 North Florida 21.2% 77 86 78.8% Charleston Southern