Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Atlantic Sun

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Atlantic Sun Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Austin Peay (162) 7 - 1 11 - 6 14.0 - 4.0 18.0 - 9.0 36.731.024.37.00.70.10.00.0
2. Queens (197) 7 - 1 11 - 9 13.6 - 4.4 17.6 - 12.4 31.630.924.911.11.20.20.1
3. Lipscomb (168) 7 - 1 12 - 7 13.5 - 4.5 18.5 - 10.5 29.029.729.010.21.60.40.10.0
4. Central Arkansas (206) 5 - 2 8 - 10 10.9 - 6.1 13.9 - 14.1 2.68.119.752.311.23.91.50.60.10.0
5. Florida Gulf Coast (233) 2 - 6 6 - 13 8.5 - 9.5 12.5 - 16.5 0.00.26.827.921.915.610.87.85.03.00.9
6. Eastern Kentucky (248) 3 - 5 5 - 14 8.1 - 9.9 10.1 - 18.9 0.00.21.04.917.819.617.814.111.27.84.21.5
7. West Georgia (307) 4 - 4 8 - 10 7.9 - 10.1 11.9 - 16.1 0.10.53.511.817.319.218.213.88.95.01.9
8. Jacksonville (293) 3 - 5 6 - 13 7.4 - 10.6 10.4 - 18.6 0.00.32.113.714.615.015.214.212.69.23.0
9. Stetson (322) 3 - 5 5 - 14 6.9 - 11.1 8.9 - 20.1 0.01.37.310.012.814.715.916.814.76.5
10. Bellarmine (297) 2 - 6 5 - 13 6.3 - 11.7 9.3 - 18.7 0.10.53.96.99.112.716.120.019.011.9
11. North Florida (337) 3 - 5 3 - 16 6.0 - 12.0 6.0 - 23.0 0.00.32.74.77.511.316.320.024.712.5
12. North Alabama (327) 1 - 6 4 - 12 3.9 - 13.1 6.9 - 19.1 0.00.10.51.22.54.68.920.361.8
Weekly Changes
1. Austin Peay (162) +12.1-0.6-4.4-3.1-2.5-1.1-0.3-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0
2. Queens (197) -16.5+3.8+8.0+5.4-0.4-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
3. Lipscomb (168) +4.8-1.6+1.0-0.6-2.0-1.0-0.4-0.2-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0
4. Central Arkansas (206) +0.0+1.4+4.9+20.5-10.3-8.3-4.4-2.2-1.1-0.4-0.1-0.0
5. Florida Gulf Coast (233) -0.1-0.7-3.6-9.1+2.2-1.2+1.0+2.7+3.2+2.6+2.1+0.7
6. Eastern Kentucky (248) -0.3-2.0-4.7-11.0-2.6-0.5+2.7+4.1+5.2+4.9+3.1+1.1
7. West Georgia (307) -0.1-0.2-0.6-0.3+4.8+4.7+1.6-1.7-2.9-3.2-1.4-0.7
8. Jacksonville (293) +0.0-0.1-0.5-1.6+3.0-1.7-4.4-2.3-0.4+2.8+4.2+1.0
9. Stetson (322) +0.0-0.0-0.1+0.3+4.1+3.9+0.7-2.5-4.6-3.1+1.1+0.3
10. Bellarmine (297) +0.0-0.0-0.1-0.6+1.5+2.3-0.3-0.8-0.6+0.6+1.0-3.0
11. North Florida (337) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.2+2.2+3.3+4.5+5.3+4.8+2.1-5.8-16.6
12. North Alabama (327) +0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.6-2.2-3.6-6.2-4.2+17.2


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Austin Peay 31.650.427.516.25.50.30.00.0
2. Queens 21.838.929.220.610.50.60.10.0
3. Lipscomb 19.835.630.023.99.50.80.10.00.0
4. Central Arkansas 2.62.68.119.752.311.23.91.50.50.10.0
5. Florida Gulf Coast 0.00.10.98.336.421.413.88.25.33.21.60.6
6. Eastern Kentucky 0.00.10.21.25.926.223.016.811.97.54.32.10.9
7. West Georgia 0.00.10.64.420.522.418.814.69.35.23.01.2
8. Jacksonville 0.00.10.42.617.117.316.915.613.19.65.52.0
9. Stetson 0.00.11.810.513.414.615.715.713.19.95.3
10. Bellarmine 0.00.10.75.58.911.914.516.618.414.19.3
11. North Florida 0.00.00.43.97.09.712.916.018.520.611.1
12. North Alabama 0.00.00.10.51.22.54.68.920.361.8






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 28 Austin Peay 55.6% 75 74 44.4% Eastern Kentucky
Jan. 28 West Georgia 30.8% 77 82 69.2% Bellarmine
Jan. 28 Central Arkansas 33.0% 77 82 67.0% Queens
Jan. 29 North Alabama 15.3% 71 83 84.7% Florida Gulf Coast
Jan. 29 Lipscomb 65.4% 73 69 34.6% Jacksonville
Jan. 29 Stetson 38.9% 83 86 61.1% North Florida
Jan. 31 Austin Peay 71.1% 77 70 28.9% West Georgia
Jan. 31 Queens 60.1% 85 83 39.9% Bellarmine
Jan. 31 Eastern Kentucky 25.7% 71 79 74.3% Central Arkansas
Jan. 31 Florida Gulf Coast 50.1% 74 73 49.9% Jacksonville
Jan. 31 Lipscomb 77.2% 91 81 22.8% North Florida
Jan. 31 North Alabama 33.7% 71 76 66.3% Stetson