American
Updated with games through Thursday, November 21
Conference Projections
Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the
Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.
| American |
Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Conf. |
Overall |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th |
| 1. |
Memphis (43) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
13.6 - 4.4 |
21.6 - 7.4 |
46.3 | 22.1 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2. |
Florida Atlantic (63) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 2 |
12.4 - 5.6 |
20.0 - 9.0 |
24.8 | 23.9 | 16.6 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3. |
North Texas (83) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
10.9 - 7.1 |
16.6 - 9.4 |
9.2 | 14.9 | 15.6 | 13.2 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 4. |
Wichita St. (104) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
9.9 - 8.1 |
18.5 - 10.5 |
5.1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| 5. |
UAB (107) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
9.2 - 8.8 |
16.0 - 12.0 |
3.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
| 6. |
Tulane (147) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
8.5 - 9.5 |
15.2 - 12.8 |
2.0 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 6.2 |
| 7. |
Temple (134) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
8.4 - 9.6 |
15.2 - 13.8 |
2.4 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 5.8 |
| 8. |
South Florida (123) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 2 |
8.4 - 9.6 |
15.1 - 13.9 |
2.1 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 5.8 |
| 9. |
Charlotte (137) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
8.3 - 9.7 |
15.4 - 12.6 |
1.9 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 5.4 |
| 10. |
East Carolina (151) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
7.9 - 10.1 |
14.4 - 13.6 |
1.1 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 7.8 |
| 11. |
Rice (157) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
7.8 - 10.2 |
16.4 - 13.6 |
1.1 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 8.6 |
| 12. |
Tulsa (221) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
6.1 - 11.9 |
11.6 - 17.4 |
0.2 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 14.2 | 17.8 | 23.0 |
| 13. |
UTSA (238) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 2 |
5.5 - 12.5 |
8.1 - 18.9 |
0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 14.0 | 19.7 | 31.6 |
This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.
|
Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Outright |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th |
| 1. |
Memphis |
39.4 | 52.7 | 21.2 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2. |
Florida Atlantic |
20.3 | 30.4 | 24.4 | 16.0 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3. |
North Texas |
7.3 | 12.6 | 17.9 | 16.2 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4. |
Wichita St. |
3.7 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 11.7 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 5. |
UAB |
2.4 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| 6. |
Tulane |
1.4 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 4.3 |
| 7. |
Temple |
1.6 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 4.1 |
| 8. |
South Florida |
1.4 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 4.2 |
| 9. |
Charlotte |
1.3 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 |
| 10. |
East Carolina |
0.7 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 6.0 |
| 11. |
Rice |
0.7 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 6.2 |
| 12. |
Tulsa |
0.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 11.5 | 13.8 | 16.6 | 17.9 |
| 13. |
UTSA |
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 14.0 | 19.1 | 25.9 |
