Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

American

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

American Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
1. Wichita St. (72) 0 - 0 5 - 4 12.9 - 5.1 20.5 - 9.5 29.421.215.812.28.65.93.51.90.90.40.10.1
2. South Florida (77) 0 - 0 6 - 4 12.1 - 5.9 19.1 - 10.9 19.118.415.713.611.58.55.73.82.30.90.40.10.0
3. Tulsa (87) 0 - 0 7 - 1 12.0 - 6.0 21.1 - 7.9 18.317.516.813.911.29.05.83.72.20.90.50.20.0
4. Memphis (89) 0 - 0 4 - 4 12.2 - 6.8 17.8 - 14.2 14.615.815.213.711.89.97.55.23.01.90.90.40.1
5. UAB (102) 0 - 0 6 - 3 11.3 - 6.7 19.8 - 10.2 11.413.413.714.613.110.78.86.43.82.41.10.50.2
6. Florida Atlantic (122) 0 - 0 5 - 3 9.5 - 7.5 15.6 - 11.4 4.47.010.412.313.613.212.410.27.54.82.61.20.3
7. North Texas (162) 0 - 0 6 - 3 7.5 - 8.5 14.1 - 12.9 1.22.74.96.78.99.810.711.513.713.09.45.42.0
8. Temple (205) 0 - 0 4 - 5 8.0 - 10.0 13.9 - 16.1 0.51.32.64.36.910.112.514.013.612.810.27.43.7
9. Charlotte (194) 0 - 0 3 - 6 7.7 - 10.3 12.5 - 17.5 0.41.12.03.55.79.313.214.714.513.810.47.53.9
10. Rice (214) 0 - 0 3 - 6 7.4 - 10.6 11.4 - 17.6 0.40.91.62.94.67.410.613.615.214.413.49.15.9
11. Tulane (219) 0 - 0 6 - 3 5.6 - 10.4 13.1 - 14.9 0.20.61.22.03.34.35.47.712.315.719.716.811.0
12. East Carolina (303) 0 - 0 2 - 7 4.5 - 13.5 7.5 - 22.5 0.00.00.00.10.50.92.03.75.910.016.126.234.7
13. UTSA (309) 0 - 0 2 - 5 4.4 - 13.6 6.6 - 21.4 0.00.00.10.20.40.92.03.65.29.015.225.338.3
Weekly Changes
1. Wichita St. (72) +3.4+1.3-0.6-0.0-0.2-0.7-1.3-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.1-0.0
2. South Florida (77) -10.9-2.3+0.8+2.7+3.2+2.4+1.7+1.2+0.8+0.3+0.1-0.1-0.0
3. Tulsa (87) +6.2+2.2+2.1-0.2-0.7-0.7-2.4-2.1-1.9-1.3-0.8-0.2-0.1
4. Memphis (89) +1.3+1.4+0.9+0.3+0.6+0.4-0.6-0.9-1.0-1.0-0.9-0.4-0.1
5. UAB (102) +2.4+1.8+0.9+1.8+0.6-0.4-0.7-1.4-1.8-1.2-1.0-0.7-0.2
6. Florida Atlantic (122) -0.8-1.1+0.0+1.2+1.2+1.3+1.8+0.5-0.6-1.0-1.2-0.9-0.3
7. North Texas (162) -0.1-0.4+0.2-0.4+0.3+0.7+1.5+0.7+1.5-0.4-0.7-1.5-1.3
8. Temple (205) -0.9-1.8-2.3-2.5-2.1-1.2+0.3+0.9+2.1+3.2+2.4+1.9+0.2
9. Charlotte (194) -0.3-0.4-0.9-0.9-1.3-0.3+1.1+1.6+1.5+1.6-0.5-0.3-0.9
10. Rice (214) -0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.2+0.8+1.3+2.2+2.3+1.1-0.5-3.9-3.4
11. Tulane (219) -0.2-0.4-0.7-1.5-0.6-0.7-0.6+0.2+1.0+1.4+2.5+0.6-1.0
12. East Carolina (303) -0.0-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.6-1.3-1.6-2.3-3.0-2.3-0.6+2.9+9.9
13. UTSA (309) +0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.0-0.5-0.1+1.4+2.7-2.6


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
1. Wichita St. 25.634.521.415.010.97.45.22.91.50.70.30.10.1
2. South Florida 15.822.718.415.912.911.27.95.22.91.70.80.30.10.0
3. Tulsa 15.122.018.116.912.810.68.35.13.11.80.80.30.20.0
4. Memphis 14.614.615.815.213.711.89.97.55.23.01.90.90.40.1
5. UAB 8.713.714.614.814.312.610.38.45.03.11.80.90.40.1
6. Florida Atlantic 4.44.47.010.412.313.613.212.410.27.54.82.61.20.3
7. North Texas 1.21.22.75.06.79.811.810.910.513.313.18.44.71.8
8. Temple 0.40.81.83.35.08.410.913.313.613.411.59.35.92.8
9. Charlotte 0.20.51.62.54.26.810.513.414.514.213.09.86.02.9
10. Rice 0.20.51.32.23.55.98.811.612.715.114.112.07.94.5
11. Tulane 0.20.20.61.31.93.75.55.56.912.215.519.316.510.9
12. East Carolina 0.00.00.00.10.20.71.12.54.26.711.017.226.230.1
13. UTSA 0.00.00.00.10.20.51.32.43.96.49.816.526.132.9






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 13 Albany 5.3% 67 87 94.7% Florida Atlantic
Dec. 13 Arkansas St. 41.3% 75 77 58.7% Rice
Dec. 13 UTSA 2.1% 64 92 97.9% Colorado
Dec. 13 DePaul 16.7% 66 77 83.3% Wichita St.
Dec. 13 Memphis 7.4% 69 87 92.6% Louisville
Dec. 13 Tulsa 69.3% 77 72 30.7% New Mexico St.
Dec. 14 Troy 24.5% 72 80 75.5% UAB
Dec. 14 Buffalo 56.7% 77 75 43.3% East Carolina
Dec. 14 Tulane 20.3% 73 82 79.7% UC San Diego
Dec. 14 Charlotte 30.6% 68 74 69.4% College of Charleston
Dec. 14 North Texas 38.8% 64 67 61.2% South Alabama
Dec. 14 St. Francis PA 6.5% 69 88 93.5% Temple
Dec. 17 South Florida 6.2% 79 101 93.8% Alabama
Dec. 17 Cleveland St. 3.9% 66 89 96.1% UAB
Dec. 17 Presbyterian 47.0% 67 68 53.0% East Carolina
Dec. 17 Louisiana Tech 39.4% 69 72 60.6% Tulane
Dec. 17 Vanderbilt 82.9% 86 74 17.1% Memphis
Dec. 17 Santa Clara 79.8% 74 65 20.2% North Texas
Dec. 17 UTSA 1.9% 65 95 98.1% USC
Dec. 17 Wofford 7.3% 63 80 92.7% Wichita St.
Dec. 18 Lafayette 11.5% 63 76 88.5% Charlotte
Dec. 18 Temple 21.0% 73 82 79.0% Davidson