Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

American

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

American Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
1. Tulsa (59) 5 - 2 15 - 3 13.2 - 4.8 23.2 - 5.8 33.226.719.012.45.61.90.80.30.10.0
2. South Florida (62) 5 - 2 12 - 7 13.0 - 5.0 20.0 - 10.0 32.324.618.511.56.64.01.60.70.10.1
3. Florida Atlantic (97) 6 - 2 12 - 7 12.0 - 5.0 18.0 - 10.0 18.923.323.516.89.74.52.30.80.1
4. Wichita St. (82) 5 - 3 12 - 8 11.8 - 6.2 18.8 - 11.2 13.117.719.720.013.08.75.11.90.60.10.0
5. Temple (171) 5 - 2 12 - 7 10.1 - 7.9 17.1 - 12.9 0.92.55.29.814.919.019.215.88.53.20.70.1
6. Memphis (123) 4 - 3 9 - 10 10.1 - 7.9 15.2 - 15.8 0.92.96.410.917.018.016.714.48.53.30.90.1
7. UAB (120) 3 - 4 11 - 8 9.9 - 8.1 17.9 - 12.1 0.31.23.88.814.917.219.518.112.03.30.80.1
8. Charlotte (181) 5 - 2 10 - 9 9.8 - 8.2 14.8 - 15.2 0.31.12.86.610.916.520.823.513.53.10.80.1
9. North Texas (163) 3 - 4 10 - 8 7.5 - 8.5 14.5 - 12.5 0.00.10.93.06.78.710.515.730.216.76.41.2
10. Tulane (214) 3 - 4 11 - 8 6.1 - 10.9 14.1 - 14.9 0.00.00.10.20.41.02.45.314.039.129.18.5
11. Rice (250) 2 - 5 6 - 12 5.9 - 12.1 9.9 - 19.1 0.00.10.41.03.110.322.639.023.30.1
12. East Carolina (286) 1 - 6 5 - 14 4.6 - 13.4 8.6 - 21.4 0.00.10.10.42.28.422.162.64.0
13. UTSA (355) 0 - 8 2 - 16 0.9 - 17.1 2.9 - 25.1 0.14.095.9
Weekly Changes
1. Tulsa (59) +3.3+2.4+2.0+0.2-2.2-2.6-1.8-0.8-0.3-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0
2. South Florida (62) +14.9+8.4+2.7-2.3-5.2-5.9-5.7-4.1-1.9-0.7-0.2+0.0+0.0
3. Florida Atlantic (97) -13.5-0.8+6.6+4.8+2.5+0.6+0.2-0.0-0.3-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0
4. Wichita St. (82) +2.5+2.1+2.3+3.9-1.1-2.0-2.8-2.6-1.6-0.6-0.2-0.0+0.0
5. Temple (171) +0.2+0.8+1.1+3.3+5.7+5.9+3.3-2.3-7.0-6.5-4.3-0.3+0.0
6. Memphis (123) -5.6-7.0-5.5-2.7+2.7+3.9+3.6+5.8+3.0+1.4+0.4+0.1+0.0
7. UAB (120) -1.3-3.5-4.1-2.4+1.8+2.5+2.9+3.6+1.5-0.8-0.3+0.1+0.0
8. Charlotte (181) -0.1+0.1+0.1+2.5+2.8+4.9+3.2+2.1-6.9-6.2-2.4-0.0+0.0
9. North Texas (163) -0.4-2.2-4.8-6.5-5.9-5.3-0.6+2.4+13.2+6.3+2.9+1.0+0.0
10. Tulane (214) -0.0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.7-0.9-0.9-1.6+1.0+5.1-6.8+5.3-0.0
11. Rice (250) +0.0-0.0-0.2-0.3-0.6-1.2-1.6-3.0-2.6-4.2-0.8+14.6-0.0
12. East Carolina (286) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.4+1.8+6.4+12.0-11.1-9.8
13. UTSA (355) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-9.7+9.8


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
1. Tulsa 30.044.426.215.28.13.81.50.60.20.10.0
2. South Florida 24.338.425.518.29.54.52.50.80.40.10.0
3. Florida Atlantic 18.918.923.323.516.99.74.62.30.80.1
4. Wichita St. 6.414.518.320.520.212.87.64.11.40.40.1
5. Temple 0.71.94.58.012.317.019.217.011.35.72.70.40.0
6. Memphis 0.72.15.18.612.216.116.816.012.17.23.20.70.0
7. UAB 0.20.82.86.612.516.917.817.713.28.32.80.60.1
8. Charlotte 0.20.82.15.09.714.919.720.516.38.32.30.20.0
9. North Texas 0.00.00.10.93.06.910.914.413.526.216.56.41.2
10. Tulane 0.00.00.00.10.20.41.02.45.314.039.129.18.5
11. Rice 0.00.00.00.20.81.93.910.222.840.719.40.1
12. East Carolina 0.00.00.00.10.20.72.510.027.657.41.5
13. UTSA 0.00.00.25.094.8






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 28 UAB 91.0% 84 67 9.0% UTSA
Jan. 28 Charlotte 33.2% 71 75 66.8% Temple
Jan. 28 Rice 43.0% 69 71 57.0% East Carolina
Jan. 28 North Texas 10.9% 64 78 89.1% Tulsa
Jan. 28 South Florida 77.5% 84 75 22.5% Tulane
Jan. 29 Florida Atlantic 43.7% 74 76 56.3% Memphis
Jan. 31 UAB 47.7% 67 68 52.3% North Texas
Jan. 31 Rice 20.9% 67 75 79.1% Charlotte
Jan. 31 South Florida 69.8% 83 77 30.2% Temple
Feb. 01 East Carolina 6.5% 66 85 93.5% Florida Atlantic
Feb. 01 Tulane 17.3% 66 77 82.7% Memphis
Feb. 01 Wichita St. 27.1% 75 82 72.9% Tulsa