Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Big Ten

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Big Ten Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th
1. Michigan (1) 1 - 0 9 - 0 17.2 - 2.8 27.7 - 3.3 54.025.312.34.72.00.90.50.20.00.00.00.0
2. Purdue (6) 2 - 0 9 - 1 15.8 - 4.2 25.4 - 5.6 25.329.018.210.87.03.92.61.50.80.50.20.10.00.0
3. Illinois (11) 1 - 0 8 - 2 14.9 - 5.1 23.7 - 7.3 11.720.523.217.110.87.04.22.51.50.80.40.20.10.0
4. Michigan St. (12) 1 - 0 8 - 1 13.8 - 6.2 23.6 - 7.4 5.712.117.819.314.410.17.44.93.52.31.20.70.40.10.10.10.0
5. Nebraska (27) 1 - 0 10 - 0 11.7 - 8.3 22.7 - 8.3 1.03.46.59.610.911.711.911.19.98.26.24.12.71.50.70.40.10.0
6. UCLA (36) 2 - 0 7 - 2 11.6 - 8.4 19.4 - 11.6 0.82.65.48.811.111.912.310.910.38.06.84.73.31.90.80.20.10.0
7. Indiana (21) 1 - 1 8 - 2 11.5 - 8.5 20.8 - 10.2 0.42.55.79.011.512.812.212.610.08.06.24.32.51.30.60.10.10.0
8. Ohio St. (29) 1 - 1 7 - 2 11.3 - 8.7 20.0 - 11.0 0.51.84.27.711.213.312.612.19.78.86.64.93.11.71.00.50.20.1
9. Iowa (31) 1 - 1 8 - 2 10.7 - 9.3 20.6 - 10.4 0.41.53.35.58.310.210.511.511.110.08.57.25.33.41.81.00.40.1
10. USC (41) 1 - 1 9 - 1 10.1 - 9.9 20.9 - 10.1 0.20.92.03.95.87.68.89.911.011.811.29.97.05.22.71.40.50.1
11. Washington (51) 1 - 1 6 - 3 9.1 - 10.9 17.4 - 13.6 0.00.20.71.83.14.36.38.310.511.412.811.810.57.55.33.01.60.7
12. Wisconsin (53) 1 - 1 7 - 3 8.8 - 11.2 17.2 - 13.8 0.00.20.51.32.43.65.96.79.112.212.713.111.09.26.23.71.80.6
13. Northwestern (55) 0 - 2 5 - 4 7.4 - 12.6 15.7 - 15.3 0.10.10.30.71.22.13.35.17.110.013.015.414.311.78.45.31.9
14. Minnesota (92) 1 - 1 5 - 5 7.1 - 12.9 13.9 - 17.1 0.10.20.60.91.82.94.55.78.010.512.915.413.711.37.54.0
15. Oregon (99) 0 - 2 4 - 5 5.3 - 14.7 11.9 - 19.1 0.00.00.10.10.40.81.22.23.55.68.811.315.417.318.015.1
16. Penn St. (116) 0 - 1 8 - 2 4.9 - 15.1 14.4 - 16.6 0.00.10.10.20.60.91.62.74.36.810.414.617.019.321.4
17. Rutgers (142) 0 - 2 5 - 5 4.4 - 15.6 11.4 - 19.6 0.00.10.10.20.30.81.32.95.58.511.917.022.129.4
18. Maryland (134) 0 - 1 6 - 4 4.4 - 15.6 11.3 - 19.7 0.00.00.10.10.40.71.52.64.78.313.518.622.926.5
Weekly Changes
1. Michigan (1) +6.8-4.1-0.5-0.7-0.5-0.4-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Purdue (6) -10.4-2.0+3.5+2.7+2.6+1.4+0.9+0.8+0.2+0.2+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
3. Illinois (11) +6.8+10.4+5.9+1.0-3.1-3.2-3.8-3.8-3.1-2.4-1.9-1.2-0.8-0.5-0.3-0.1-0.0+0.0
4. Michigan St. (12) -1.8-1.9-3.8+2.5+2.1+1.3+1.3+0.6+0.4+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0
5. Nebraska (27) +0.5+2.2+3.3+4.5+4.4+3.7+3.1+1.3-0.5-1.4-2.7-4.1-4.3-3.8-2.8-1.9-1.1-0.4
6. UCLA (36) -0.1-0.7-1.0-0.5+0.3+0.2+1.4+0.7+1.3+0.7+0.6-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.1-0.0
7. Indiana (21) -0.1-0.1+0.1+0.7+0.9+1.6+0.4+1.9-0.1-0.1-0.7-0.7-0.8-1.2-0.8-0.7-0.3-0.1
8. Ohio St. (29) -0.9-2.2-2.2-2.1+0.6+2.6+2.4+2.8+1.2+1.8+0.4-0.4-0.7-1.2-1.0-0.6-0.4-0.2
9. Iowa (31) +0.1+0.7+1.1+1.2+2.2+2.4+2.2+2.1+1.2-0.1-0.7-1.0-1.9-2.9-3.0-1.8-1.4-0.5
10. USC (41) -0.6-1.7-3.7-4.8-4.1-2.4-2.1+0.5+1.5+3.2+4.0+4.0+2.6+2.1+1.1+0.3+0.1+0.0
11. Washington (51) +0.0+0.1+0.3+0.9+1.4+1.9+3.0+3.5+4.5+3.9+4.1+1.1-1.8-3.4-5.5-6.1-4.8-3.2
12. Wisconsin (53) -0.2-0.6-1.9-3.4-3.2-4.0-3.0-3.3-0.5+1.9+3.5+3.8+3.5+3.3+2.4+1.1+0.4+0.3
13. Northwestern (55) -0.1-0.2-0.8-1.4-2.1-2.9-2.9-3.7-2.3-2.5-1.1+1.6+4.2+4.6+3.5+3.1+2.3+0.8
14. Minnesota (92) -0.0-0.1-0.2-0.5-0.9-1.1-1.2-1.5-1.2-1.5-1.1+0.2+0.8+2.9+1.7+1.7+1.4+0.7
15. Oregon (99) +0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.8-1.2-1.3-0.9+0.4+0.6+1.5+1.3+1.4+1.2
16. Penn St. (116) +0.0-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.8-0.8-1.3-1.9-2.2-1.7-1.8-0.8+1.2+1.0+3.1+7.0
17. Rutgers (142) +0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.4+0.4-0.4-0.3+0.9+0.2+1.5
18. Maryland (134) +0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.8+1.6+3.1+2.6-0.8-7.2


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th
1. Michigan 48.564.221.88.73.01.30.60.20.10.00.00.0
2. Purdue 18.030.130.617.79.85.12.82.00.80.50.30.20.10.0
3. Illinois 8.116.124.923.915.18.75.12.91.60.80.50.30.10.00.0
4. Michigan St. 3.68.214.819.319.613.38.86.34.22.51.50.80.40.10.10.10.0
5. Nebraska 0.51.44.78.711.212.612.811.510.08.37.05.03.01.91.00.60.20.1
6. UCLA 0.41.23.97.211.012.913.012.110.28.76.75.63.62.21.20.40.20.10.0
7. Indiana 0.30.73.67.510.412.714.012.211.58.77.55.03.21.70.70.40.10.10.0
8. Ohio St. 0.30.72.86.09.913.013.512.511.19.07.45.83.92.51.20.60.20.10.0
9. Iowa 0.20.62.34.77.39.910.911.211.510.89.17.45.94.02.21.40.60.20.1
10. USC 0.10.31.22.85.07.89.210.010.511.611.510.27.75.53.71.80.90.30.1
11. Washington 0.00.10.41.22.64.25.67.79.011.012.212.611.48.86.03.92.00.90.3
12. Wisconsin 0.00.00.20.81.83.45.06.58.210.612.012.112.710.07.74.82.71.10.3
13. Northwestern 0.00.10.20.51.01.93.04.66.58.610.913.614.513.09.96.73.91.2
14. Minnesota 0.00.00.20.50.91.42.53.55.77.49.411.913.614.712.28.85.22.1
15. Oregon 0.00.00.10.10.30.71.11.82.94.67.09.412.616.417.115.510.6
16. Penn St. 0.00.00.10.10.40.81.22.13.36.08.012.315.317.217.515.6
17. Rutgers 0.00.00.00.10.20.30.71.02.24.16.89.813.917.720.522.7
18. Maryland 0.00.00.00.00.20.20.81.02.23.65.810.514.718.420.921.6






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 13 UC Davis 21.0% 67 76 79.0% Oregon
Dec. 13 UCLA 13.6% 68 81 86.4% Gonzaga
Dec. 13 Nebraska 20.0% 73 83 80.0% Illinois
Dec. 13 Indiana 34.0% 77 81 66.0% Kentucky
Dec. 13 Jackson St. 1.5% 58 87 98.5% Northwestern
Dec. 13 Marquette 2.6% 64 89 97.4% Purdue
Dec. 13 Michigan 96.0% 89 65 4.0% Maryland
Dec. 13 Michigan St. 85.0% 79 67 15.0% Penn St.
Dec. 13 West Virginia 28.1% 67 73 71.9% Ohio St.
Dec. 13 Rutgers 14.5% 61 73 85.5% Seton Hall
Dec. 13 Southern Utah 1.6% 58 87 98.4% Washington
Dec. 14 Western Michigan 2.1% 62 87 97.9% Iowa
Dec. 14 Texas Southern 6.8% 59 77 93.2% Minnesota
Dec. 14 Washington St. 6.5% 75 94 93.5% USC
Dec. 16 Toledo 2.9% 63 87 97.1% Michigan St.
Dec. 16 Valparaiso 5.5% 62 81 94.5% Northwestern
Dec. 17 Arizona St. 21.0% 69 77 79.0% UCLA
Dec. 17 Portland 11.4% 68 82 88.6% Oregon
Dec. 17 UTSA 1.9% 65 95 98.1% USC