Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Big Ten

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Big Ten Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th
1. Michigan (1) 9 - 1 19 - 1 16.6 - 3.4 27.1 - 3.9 39.727.017.010.15.01.00.20.0
2. Nebraska (9) 9 - 1 20 - 1 16.4 - 3.6 27.4 - 3.6 27.531.922.111.85.21.20.20.10.0
3. Illinois (5) 8 - 1 17 - 3 16.3 - 3.7 25.3 - 5.7 25.124.026.617.45.70.90.30.10.00.0
4. Michigan St. (10) 9 - 1 19 - 2 15.1 - 4.9 25.1 - 5.9 5.511.119.928.126.36.02.10.70.20.00.0
5. Purdue (6) 7 - 3 17 - 4 14.2 - 5.8 24.2 - 6.8 2.15.512.625.531.312.75.92.81.20.40.10.0
6. Iowa (20) 4 - 4 14 - 5 11.6 - 8.4 21.6 - 9.4 0.00.30.82.19.226.720.015.310.17.54.32.51.00.20.10.0
7. UCLA (39) 6 - 3 14 - 6 11.3 - 8.7 19.3 - 11.7 0.00.20.52.04.711.617.018.217.113.78.64.31.80.10.0
8. Ohio St. (36) 6 - 4 14 - 6 11.1 - 8.9 19.5 - 11.5 0.00.21.45.814.817.016.816.013.29.54.50.90.0
9. Wisconsin (41) 6 - 3 14 - 6 10.8 - 9.2 18.8 - 12.2 0.00.00.30.93.812.714.916.215.715.012.16.61.60.1
10. Indiana (28) 5 - 5 14 - 7 10.6 - 9.4 19.6 - 11.4 0.10.72.78.714.616.919.316.411.86.02.40.40.00.0
11. Washington (48) 3 - 6 11 - 9 9.1 - 10.9 17.1 - 13.9 0.12.04.06.510.716.923.619.411.23.91.20.40.20.0
12. USC (53) 4 - 5 14 - 5 8.7 - 11.3 18.7 - 11.3 0.00.11.63.45.27.812.819.929.413.94.41.10.30.0
13. Minnesota (75) 3 - 6 10 - 10 7.4 - 12.6 14.4 - 16.6 0.10.41.01.83.88.219.241.714.56.22.10.90.1
14. Northwestern (52) 1 - 8 9 - 11 5.4 - 14.6 13.4 - 17.6 0.00.10.21.34.811.931.625.116.06.72.3
15. Rutgers (154) 2 - 8 9 - 12 4.5 - 15.5 11.5 - 19.5 0.00.21.25.721.223.918.316.013.5
16. Oregon (92) 1 - 8 8 - 12 4.5 - 15.5 11.5 - 19.5 0.00.10.41.75.914.421.430.216.99.0
17. Maryland (143) 1 - 8 8 - 12 3.2 - 16.8 10.2 - 20.8 0.00.00.10.84.010.717.935.930.4
18. Penn St. (119) 0 - 9 9 - 11 3.2 - 16.8 12.2 - 18.8 0.00.31.35.210.314.923.344.6
Weekly Changes
1. Michigan (1) -1.2+1.4+1.1-0.3-0.5-0.4-0.2+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Nebraska (9) +8.0+6.1-0.6-5.1-4.1-2.9-1.0-0.3-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
3. Illinois (5) +11.0+7.1+4.9-5.4-13.0-3.3-0.9-0.2-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
4. Michigan St. (10) +0.7+1.8+3.7+4.4-5.0-2.8-1.5-0.7-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
5. Purdue (6) -18.4-16.2-8.4+7.2+19.0+8.8+4.4+2.2+1.0+0.3+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
6. Iowa (20) -0.0+0.1-0.3-0.7+1.2-1.3-2.3-0.0-0.1+2.0+0.5+0.7+0.2+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
7. UCLA (39) -0.0-0.0-0.2+0.1+0.3+0.6-0.8-2.0+0.5+1.3+1.1-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0
8. Ohio St. (36) +0.0-0.0-0.1+0.1+1.9-0.5-2.5-1.3-0.6+0.8+1.9+0.6-0.3-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
9. Wisconsin (41) -0.0-0.2-0.1-0.7-1.5-3.4-2.3-0.3+0.9+3.0+3.6+1.6-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0
10. Indiana (28) +0.0+0.0+0.1+0.5+1.9+5.7+7.8+5.4+3.8-2.5-5.8-7.3-6.7-2.2-0.7-0.1-0.0+0.0
11. Washington (48) +0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.2+0.1-0.1+0.2+1.5+4.2+1.3-2.5-2.0-1.4-0.7-0.3-0.1
12. USC (53) +0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.4-1.4-2.6-1.0+1.5+8.2-1.0-1.4-0.9-0.5-0.1-0.0
13. Minnesota (75) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.3-0.5-1.4-2.3-4.2-5.0-1.8+13.0+1.9+1.0-0.2-0.1-0.1
14. Northwestern (52) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.3-0.1+1.3+4.0+12.3+1.9-5.5-7.6-5.8
15. Rutgers (154) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.4-0.8-1.8-2.2-1.9+2.3+1.7+1.8+1.4
16. Oregon (92) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.8-1.5-1.3-1.7-0.1+5.3-0.1+0.6
17. Maryland (143) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.2-0.6-0.8+0.3+1.1+5.4-5.2
18. Penn St. (119) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.3-0.7-2.0-3.8-2.3-1.0+1.0+9.2


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th
1. Michigan 24.647.526.115.67.92.40.40.10.0
2. Nebraska 19.141.328.118.08.83.20.40.10.0
3. Illinois 18.538.125.721.110.93.60.40.10.00.0
4. Michigan St. 3.612.416.521.727.917.03.21.10.20.10.00.0
5. Purdue 0.53.57.915.026.932.69.33.11.20.40.10.00.0
6. Iowa 0.00.10.51.34.112.526.919.114.69.06.43.31.70.40.00.0
7. UCLA 0.00.00.20.82.68.021.521.417.112.48.54.72.20.60.1
8. Ohio St. 0.00.00.10.42.47.619.619.716.714.610.15.92.40.50.0
9. Wisconsin 0.00.00.10.31.75.816.917.217.415.513.67.92.60.90.0
10. Indiana 0.00.21.04.014.617.617.217.413.98.84.01.10.1
11. Washington 0.00.00.10.53.36.29.312.317.021.817.69.22.10.50.10.0
12. USC 0.00.00.00.42.64.76.69.615.220.925.611.72.20.20.10.0
13. Minnesota 0.00.20.91.63.56.312.924.436.010.03.10.90.2
14. Northwestern 0.00.00.10.41.55.917.439.419.711.13.51.0
15. Rutgers 0.00.00.10.31.97.522.628.720.612.16.2
16. Oregon 0.00.00.00.20.82.98.222.424.222.712.85.8
17. Maryland 0.00.00.10.21.57.513.920.630.925.4
18. Penn St. 0.00.10.42.08.313.818.527.129.8






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 28 USC 14.8% 68 80 85.2% Iowa
Jan. 28 Minnesota 20.7% 68 77 79.3% Wisconsin
Jan. 28 UCLA 59.4% 72 70 40.6% Oregon
Jan. 29 Washington 8.6% 68 84 91.4% Illinois
Jan. 29 Penn St. 16.1% 71 82 83.9% Northwestern
Jan. 30 Michigan 58.6% 76 74 41.4% Michigan St.
Jan. 31 Indiana 48.0% 73 74 52.0% UCLA
Jan. 31 Washington 38.6% 72 75 61.4% Northwestern
Jan. 31 Ohio St. 42.4% 81 83 57.6% Wisconsin
Jan. 31 Rutgers 11.3% 68 82 88.7% USC
Feb. 01 Illinois 43.0% 75 77 57.0% Nebraska
Feb. 01 Iowa 76.0% 74 67 24.0% Oregon
Feb. 01 Purdue 93.1% 84 67 6.9% Maryland
Feb. 01 Minnesota 50.8% 71 70 49.2% Penn St.
Feb. 03 Indiana 57.1% 79 77 42.9% USC
Feb. 03 Rutgers 8.1% 63 78 91.9% UCLA