Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Big Ten

Updated with games through Friday, March 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Big Ten Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th
1. Michigan (2) 21 - 2 34 - 3 21.0 - 2.0 34.0 - 3.0 100.0
2. Michigan St. (10) 15 - 6 27 - 8 15.0 - 6.0 27.0 - 8.0 100.0
3. Illinois (4) 15 - 6 27 - 8 15.0 - 6.0 27.0 - 8.0 100.0
4. Purdue (6) 17 - 7 30 - 8 17.0 - 7.0 30.0 - 8.0 100.0
5. Wisconsin (27) 16 - 7 24 - 11 16.0 - 7.0 24.0 - 11.0 100.0
6. Nebraska (16) 15 - 7 28 - 7 15.0 - 7.0 28.0 - 7.0 100.0
7. UCLA (30) 15 - 8 24 - 12 15.0 - 8.0 24.0 - 12.0 100.0
8. Ohio St. (25) 13 - 9 21 - 13 13.0 - 9.0 21.0 - 13.0 100.0
9. Iowa (20) 12 - 11 24 - 12 12.0 - 11.0 24.0 - 12.0 100.0
10. Indiana (37) 9 - 12 18 - 14 9.0 - 12.0 18.0 - 14.0 100.0
11. Minnesota (66) 8 - 13 15 - 17 8.0 - 13.0 15.0 - 17.0 100.0
12. Washington (48) 8 - 14 16 - 17 8.0 - 14.0 16.0 - 17.0 100.0
13. USC (77) 7 - 14 17 - 14 7.0 - 14.0 17.0 - 14.0 100.0
14. Rutgers (132) 7 - 15 14 - 19 7.0 - 15.0 14.0 - 19.0 100.0
15. Northwestern (52) 7 - 16 15 - 19 7.0 - 16.0 15.0 - 19.0 100.0
16. Oregon (95) 5 - 16 12 - 20 5.0 - 16.0 12.0 - 20.0 100.0
17. Maryland (126) 5 - 17 12 - 21 5.0 - 17.0 12.0 - 21.0 100.0
18. Penn St. (130) 3 - 18 12 - 20 3.0 - 18.0 12.0 - 20.0 100.0
Weekly Changes
1. Michigan (2) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Michigan St. (10) +0.0+100.0-100.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
3. Illinois (4) +0.0+0.0+100.0-100.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
4. Purdue (6) +0.0+0.0+0.0+100.0-100.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
5. Wisconsin (27) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+100.0-100.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
6. Nebraska (16) +0.0-100.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+100.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
7. UCLA (30) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
8. Ohio St. (25) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
9. Iowa (20) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
10. Indiana (37) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
11. Minnesota (66) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
12. Washington (48) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
13. USC (77) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
14. Rutgers (132) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
15. Northwestern (52) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
16. Oregon (95) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
17. Maryland (126) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
18. Penn St. (130) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th
1. Michigan 100.0100.0
2. Michigan St. 0.0100.0
3. Illinois 0.0100.0
4. Purdue 0.0100.0
5. Wisconsin 0.0100.0
6. Nebraska 0.0100.0
7. UCLA 0.0100.0
8. Ohio St. 0.0100.0
9. Iowa 0.0100.0
10. Indiana 0.0100.0
11. Minnesota 0.0100.0
12. Washington 0.0100.0
13. USC 0.0100.0
14. Rutgers 0.0100.0
15. Northwestern 0.0100.0
16. Oregon 0.0100.0
17. Maryland 0.0100.0
18. Penn St. 0.0100.0






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Mar. 28 Illinois 74.2% 76 70 25.8% Iowa
Mar. 28 Arizona 62.9% 79 76 37.1% Purdue
Mar. 29 Michigan 78.3% 81 72 21.7% Tennessee
Apr. 01 Baylor 64.7% 75 71 35.3% Minnesota
Apr. 02 Creighton 72.0% 75 69 28.0% Rutgers