Big Ten
Updated with games through Thursday, November 21
Conference Projections
Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the
Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.
| Big Ten |
Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Conf. |
Overall |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th | 14th | 15th | 16th | 17th | 18th |
| 1. |
Purdue (19) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
12.7 - 7.3 |
20.0 - 10.0 |
17.8 | 13.3 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 2. |
Maryland (18) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
12.6 - 7.4 |
22.2 - 8.8 |
16.6 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 3. |
Indiana (22) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
11.6 - 8.4 |
20.0 - 9.0 |
9.8 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 4. |
UCLA (27) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
11.5 - 8.5 |
19.2 - 11.8 |
8.4 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 5. |
Michigan St. (31) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
11.1 - 8.9 |
18.4 - 10.6 |
7.0 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| 6. |
Ohio St. (29) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
10.9 - 9.1 |
18.8 - 12.2 |
6.6 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| 7. |
Iowa (32) |
0 - 0 |
5 - 0 |
10.8 - 9.2 |
20.5 - 10.5 |
6.4 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 8. |
Penn St. (42) |
0 - 0 |
5 - 0 |
10.2 - 9.8 |
19.8 - 10.2 |
4.3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 3.3 |
| 9. |
Oregon (37) |
0 - 0 |
5 - 0 |
10.2 - 9.8 |
18.9 - 12.1 |
4.6 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 |
| 10. |
Nebraska (36) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
10.0 - 10.0 |
16.8 - 12.2 |
3.9 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.8 |
| 11. |
Northwestern (41) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
9.9 - 10.1 |
17.9 - 12.1 |
3.5 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| 12. |
Wisconsin (52) |
0 - 0 |
5 - 0 |
9.6 - 10.4 |
17.9 - 12.1 |
3.1 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.5 |
| 13. |
Illinois (54) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
9.1 - 10.9 |
16.4 - 14.6 |
2.7 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 6.4 |
| 14. |
USC (56) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
9.1 - 10.9 |
17.2 - 12.8 |
2.0 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 5.9 |
| 15. |
Michigan (58) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
8.7 - 11.3 |
15.9 - 14.1 |
1.7 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 7.4 |
| 16. |
Washington (68) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
8.1 - 11.9 |
14.9 - 14.1 |
0.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 10.9 |
| 17. |
Rutgers (70) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
8.0 - 12.0 |
15.8 - 15.2 |
0.8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 10.4 |
| 18. |
Minnesota (97) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
5.9 - 14.1 |
14.1 - 15.9 |
0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 18.1 | 32.4 |
This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.
|
Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Outright |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th | 14th | 15th | 16th | 17th | 18th |
| 1. |
Purdue |
13.6 | 22.1 | 14.6 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 2. |
Maryland |
13.2 | 21.2 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 3. |
Indiana |
7.4 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 4. |
UCLA |
6.6 | 11.8 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5. |
Michigan St. |
5.1 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 6. |
Ohio St. |
4.8 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 7. |
Iowa |
4.5 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 8. |
Penn St. |
3.1 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| 9. |
Oregon |
3.2 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| 10. |
Nebraska |
2.8 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 11. |
Northwestern |
2.5 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 2.7 |
| 12. |
Wisconsin |
2.1 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.3 |
| 13. |
Illinois |
1.7 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 4.4 |
| 14. |
USC |
1.4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 4.4 |
| 15. |
Michigan |
1.1 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 5.4 |
| 16. |
Washington |
0.6 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 8.2 |
| 17. |
Rutgers |
0.5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 8.2 |
| 18. |
Minnesota |
0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 17.0 | 27.1 |
