Big 12
Updated with games through Thursday, November 21
Conference Projections
Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the
Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.
| Big 12 |
Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Conf. |
Overall |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th | 14th | 15th | 16th |
| 1. |
Houston (2) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
15.9 - 4.1 |
25.0 - 6.0 |
44.7 | 21.6 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | | 0.0 |
| 2. |
Baylor (8) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
13.3 - 6.7 |
21.0 - 9.0 |
12.0 | 14.2 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 12.3 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3. |
Kansas (10) |
0 - 0 |
5 - 0 |
13.3 - 6.7 |
22.6 - 8.4 |
10.6 | 14.5 | 14.7 | 13.7 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4. |
Cincinnati (15) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
13.2 - 6.8 |
23.2 - 7.8 |
9.5 | 14.3 | 15.0 | 13.8 | 12.5 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5. |
Iowa St. (13) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 0 |
13.2 - 6.8 |
20.6 - 8.4 |
9.5 | 14.2 | 14.6 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 6. |
Arizona (11) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
13.0 - 7.0 |
20.0 - 9.0 |
9.8 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 7. |
Texas Tech (30) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
10.1 - 9.9 |
18.9 - 12.1 |
1.6 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 8. |
BYU (35) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
9.4 - 10.6 |
18.1 - 11.9 |
0.8 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| 9. |
Arizona St. (46) |
0 - 0 |
5 - 1 |
9.1 - 10.9 |
16.7 - 13.3 |
0.4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 3.6 |
| 10. |
West Virginia (48) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
8.7 - 11.3 |
15.6 - 13.4 |
0.4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 4.1 |
| 11. |
UCF (62) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
8.1 - 11.9 |
17.1 - 12.9 |
0.3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 |
| 12. |
TCU (69) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
7.8 - 12.2 |
15.3 - 14.7 |
0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 6.0 |
| 13. |
Oklahoma St. (76) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
7.0 - 13.0 |
13.8 - 16.2 |
0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 11.7 |
| 14. |
Utah (75) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
6.9 - 13.1 |
15.5 - 15.5 |
0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 13.6 | 13.7 | 10.3 |
| 15. |
Colorado (77) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
6.3 - 13.7 |
14.1 - 14.9 |
0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 13.9 | 16.6 | 16.8 |
| 16. |
Kansas St. (103) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
4.7 - 15.3 |
10.3 - 18.7 |
| | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 13.5 | 21.0 | 38.0 |
This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.
|
Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Outright |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th | 14th | 15th | 16th |
| 1. |
Houston |
37.6 | 51.9 | 20.6 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 0.0 |
| 2. |
Baylor |
8.9 | 15.3 | 16.0 | 15.2 | 13.6 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3. |
Kansas |
7.9 | 14.8 | 16.5 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4. |
Cincinnati |
7.1 | 13.2 | 16.6 | 15.8 | 13.7 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5. |
Iowa St. |
7.2 | 13.1 | 16.3 | 15.3 | 14.0 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 6. |
Arizona |
7.0 | 12.9 | 15.0 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 11.6 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 7. |
Texas Tech |
1.0 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 8. |
BYU |
0.5 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 9. |
Arizona St. |
0.3 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 2.4 |
| 10. |
West Virginia |
0.3 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.7 |
| 11. |
UCF |
0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.9 |
| 12. |
TCU |
0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 4.4 |
| 13. |
Oklahoma St. |
0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 10.4 | 8.9 |
| 14. |
Utah |
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 7.6 |
| 15. |
Colorado |
0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 15.2 | 12.1 |
| 16. |
Kansas St. |
0.0 | | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 14.7 | 20.7 | 32.1 |
