Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Big 12

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Big 12 Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th
1. Iowa St. (4) 0 - 0 10 - 0 14.4 - 3.6 27.4 - 3.6 37.826.916.39.44.72.61.20.60.30.10.10.00.0
2. Arizona (5) 0 - 0 8 - 0 13.7 - 4.3 26.7 - 5.3 29.323.017.012.28.34.92.31.50.70.40.10.10.00.00.0
3. BYU (9) 0 - 0 8 - 1 12.8 - 5.2 24.7 - 6.3 15.617.719.115.312.37.85.03.11.90.90.60.40.20.10.00.0
4. Houston (16) 0 - 0 9 - 1 11.7 - 6.3 23.2 - 7.8 5.911.114.916.715.012.08.96.03.92.21.50.90.50.30.20.1
5. Kansas (15) 0 - 0 7 - 3 11.3 - 6.7 20.7 - 10.3 6.39.612.314.615.512.69.76.54.63.02.01.50.80.50.30.1
6. Texas Tech (17) 0 - 0 7 - 2 11.0 - 7.0 20.7 - 10.3 3.67.810.914.214.813.710.97.85.64.32.61.71.00.60.30.1
7. Baylor (39) 0 - 0 7 - 2 8.6 - 9.4 17.8 - 12.2 0.71.43.24.66.79.310.911.110.89.48.17.26.24.83.42.1
8. Colorado (43) 0 - 0 8 - 1 8.5 - 9.5 20.1 - 10.9 0.31.02.24.36.59.710.412.211.310.68.37.55.74.83.22.1
9. TCU (46) 0 - 0 6 - 3 8.0 - 10.0 17.8 - 13.2 0.20.61.52.74.96.99.210.311.210.610.08.98.06.45.03.5
10. UCF (63) 0 - 0 8 - 1 7.2 - 10.8 17.0 - 12.0 0.10.30.71.62.84.67.08.49.810.210.210.29.79.28.66.7
11. West Virginia (73) 0 - 0 8 - 3 6.8 - 11.2 16.1 - 14.9 0.10.20.51.32.34.15.47.08.49.610.410.510.810.710.78.2
12. Arizona St. (68) 0 - 0 8 - 2 6.7 - 11.3 16.3 - 14.7 0.00.10.30.81.83.65.37.08.29.611.511.511.310.79.88.3
13. Kansas St. (65) 0 - 0 6 - 4 6.6 - 11.4 14.9 - 16.1 0.10.20.41.01.93.05.66.77.49.710.910.911.911.410.58.3
14. Oklahoma St. (70) 0 - 0 9 - 0 6.3 - 11.7 18.6 - 12.4 0.00.10.30.71.62.94.35.97.48.49.911.011.511.712.411.7
15. Cincinnati (84) 0 - 0 6 - 3 5.6 - 12.4 13.7 - 17.3 0.00.00.10.30.71.52.63.95.26.38.210.312.514.616.317.7
16. Utah (96) 0 - 0 7 - 3 4.7 - 13.3 13.2 - 17.8 0.00.10.10.30.71.32.13.34.55.57.310.114.119.431.4
Weekly Changes
1. Iowa St. (4) +11.6+4.0-0.7-3.0-4.0-2.7-2.1-1.4-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0
2. Arizona (5) +1.1+2.3+0.0+0.4-0.2-1.0-1.3-0.4-0.5-0.2-0.1+0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0
3. BYU (9) -4.7-0.2+2.9+1.4+1.2+0.3-0.1-0.2+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0
4. Houston (16) -4.0-3.7-1.1+1.4+2.0+1.2+1.6+1.1+0.6+0.1+0.4+0.2+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1
5. Kansas (15) -3.3-1.5-1.0+0.6+2.1+1.2+0.8+0.1+0.4+0.5+0.0+0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0
6. Texas Tech (17) +0.5+1.8+2.1+2.7+1.7-0.1-0.7-1.6-2.0-1.0-1.4-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.1-0.1
7. Baylor (39) -0.7-1.1-0.7-1.3-0.9-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.4+1.1+0.1+0.9+1.0+0.3+0.8+0.7
8. Colorado (43) -0.0+0.1+0.4+0.7+1.0+2.3+0.4+0.9+0.1-0.1-1.8-0.7-1.2-0.4-0.9-0.6
9. TCU (46) -0.5-1.4-1.5-2.4-2.6-2.7-1.6-1.2+0.7+0.7+1.3+2.2+2.8+2.5+2.2+1.5
10. UCF (63) -0.0+0.1+0.1+0.4+0.2+0.8+1.9+1.3+1.1+0.7+0.1-0.3-1.2-1.1-1.4-2.6
11. West Virginia (73) -0.0-0.2-0.4-0.7-1.1-1.2-1.8-1.4-1.0-0.4-0.0+0.4+1.2+1.7+2.8+2.1
12. Arizona St. (68) +0.0+0.1+0.2+0.4+1.1+2.2+2.9+3.2+2.7+2.0+3.0+0.3-1.3-3.0-5.8-8.1
13. Kansas St. (65) +0.0+0.1+0.1+0.3+0.5+0.6+1.8+1.5-0.0+1.0+1.4-1.0+0.1-1.6-2.2-2.5
14. Oklahoma St. (70) -0.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.8-0.2-0.5-1.1-0.4+0.6+0.5+0.6+1.6+1.5
15. Cincinnati (84) +0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.6-0.8-1.0-1.6-1.0-0.5+0.1+1.5+2.0+2.9
16. Utah (96) +0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.4-0.9-0.9-1.2-1.2-0.2+1.1+5.1


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th
1. Iowa St. 32.248.525.112.87.13.41.50.90.50.20.00.00.00.0
2. Arizona 21.835.724.415.910.96.23.51.70.90.50.20.10.10.00.0
3. BYU 10.819.820.019.015.410.76.43.92.31.20.70.40.20.00.00.0
4. Houston 3.88.914.716.617.313.210.77.54.52.61.80.90.60.30.20.10.0
5. Kansas 4.08.611.413.316.115.012.18.35.53.72.51.31.10.60.30.10.1
6. Texas Tech 2.55.910.112.315.414.712.79.86.84.73.21.81.20.70.40.20.0
7. Baylor 0.31.02.13.95.88.010.511.711.810.58.87.26.34.93.72.41.4
8. Colorado 0.20.51.73.25.78.111.011.712.610.89.66.96.64.73.52.31.2
9. TCU 0.10.40.92.44.05.79.010.711.111.010.09.28.36.24.94.02.1
10. UCF 0.10.10.51.12.33.96.08.39.910.910.210.39.78.37.76.54.3
11. West Virginia 0.00.10.30.81.73.35.17.18.69.410.210.310.29.89.28.45.3
12. Arizona St. 0.00.10.20.61.32.64.56.78.49.410.511.411.010.29.38.35.6
13. Kansas St. 0.00.10.40.61.62.44.57.08.18.410.310.811.110.79.78.46.1
14. Oklahoma St. 0.00.10.20.51.02.34.05.37.28.39.310.710.810.711.310.77.7
15. Cincinnati 0.00.00.10.20.61.02.23.55.06.17.59.111.212.313.314.313.5
16. Utah 0.00.00.10.30.50.91.82.94.05.46.58.511.014.718.524.8






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 12 Arizona 56.4% 91 89 43.6% Alabama
Dec. 13 Santa Clara 49.3% 78 79 50.7% Arizona St.
Dec. 13 Texas Tech 55.7% 77 76 44.3% Arkansas
Dec. 13 UC Riverside 1.4% 64 94 98.6% BYU
Dec. 13 Georgia 80.5% 83 72 19.5% Cincinnati
Dec. 13 UTSA 2.1% 64 92 97.9% Colorado
Dec. 13 Kansas St. 31.6% 75 80 68.4% Creighton
Dec. 13 New Orleans 2.0% 56 83 98.0% Houston
Dec. 13 Kansas 46.6% 76 77 53.4% North Carolina St.
Dec. 13 Utah 43.8% 78 80 56.2% Mississippi St.
Dec. 13 West Virginia 28.1% 67 73 71.9% Ohio St.
Dec. 13 Oklahoma St. 43.4% 82 84 56.6% Oklahoma
Dec. 13 Alabama 43.6% 89 91 56.4% Arizona
Dec. 14 Eastern Illinois 0.2% 53 94 99.8% Iowa St.
Dec. 15 Incarnate Word 6.5% 63 81 93.5% TCU
Dec. 16 Abilene Christian 0.7% 56 91 99.3% Arizona
Dec. 16 Pacific 4.2% 62 84 95.8% BYU
Dec. 16 Towson 3.4% 56 77 96.6% Kansas
Dec. 16 Northern Colorado 3.8% 63 85 96.2% Texas Tech
Dec. 17 Alabama St. 9.4% 64 80 90.6% Cincinnati
Dec. 17 Arizona St. 21.0% 69 77 79.0% UCLA
Dec. 17 Mercer 10.9% 74 89 89.1% UCF
Dec. 17 Portland St. 5.5% 66 86 94.5% Colorado
Dec. 18 UMKC 3.0% 62 88 97.0% Oklahoma St.
Dec. 18 Oral Roberts 3.3% 61 85 96.7% TCU