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NCAA Tournament

Big Sky

Updated with games through Thursday, March 05

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Big Sky		Current Record		Projected Record		Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
	Team	Conf.	Overall	Conf.	Overall	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th
1.	Portland St. (133)	13 - 5	16 - 10	13.0 - 5.0	16.0 - 10.0	100.0
2.	Montana St. (114)	12 - 6	15 - 13	12.0 - 6.0	15.0 - 13.0		100.0
3.	Eastern Washington (163)	11 - 7	12 - 18	11.0 - 7.0	12.0 - 18.0			100.0
4.	Montana (185)	10 - 8	13 - 14	10.0 - 8.0	13.0 - 14.0				100.0
5.	Northern Colorado (129)	10 - 8	17 - 11	10.0 - 8.0	17.0 - 11.0					100.0
6.	Weber St. (171)	10 - 8	14 - 15	10.0 - 8.0	14.0 - 15.0						100.0
7.	Idaho (138)	9 - 9	14 - 14	9.0 - 9.0	14.0 - 14.0							100.0
8.	Sacramento St. (234)	6 - 12	7 - 20	6.0 - 12.0	7.0 - 20.0								100.0
9.	Idaho St. (199)	5 - 13	9 - 19	5.0 - 13.0	9.0 - 19.0									100.0
10.	Northern Arizona (298)	4 - 14	7 - 21	4.0 - 14.0	7.0 - 21.0										100.0
Weekly Changes
1.	Portland St. (133)					+13.7	-8.2	-5.5	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
2.	Montana St. (114)					-10.8	+30.0	-18.4	-0.8	-0.1	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
3.	Eastern Washington (163)					-2.9	-21.6	+29.7	-3.7	-1.1	-0.4	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
4.	Montana (185)					+0.0	-0.1	-2.8	+44.2	-24.1	-12.7	-4.6	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
5.	Northern Colorado (129)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-8.2	+66.5	-32.1	-26.2	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
6.	Weber St. (171)					+0.0	-0.0	-2.0	-25.5	-30.0	+68.3	-10.8	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
7.	Idaho (138)					+0.0	-0.1	-1.1	-6.0	-11.3	-23.2	+41.6	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
8.	Sacramento St. (234)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+68.9	-57.9	-11.0
9.	Idaho St. (199)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-67.1	+72.7	-5.6
10.	Northern Arizona (298)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-1.8	-14.8	+16.6

This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

			Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
	Team	Outright	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th
1.	Portland St.	100.0	100.0
2.	Montana St.	0.0		100.0
3.	Eastern Washington	0.0			100.0
4.	Montana	0.0				100.0
5.	Northern Colorado	0.0				100.0
6.	Weber St.	0.0				100.0
7.	Idaho	0.0							100.0
8.	Sacramento St.	0.0								100.0
9.	Idaho St.	0.0									100.0
10.	Northern Arizona	0.0										100.0

This Week's Games

Date	Away	W Prob, Pred Score				Home
Mar. 07	Idaho St.	72.7%	74	68	27.3%	Northern Arizona
Mar. 07	Idaho	71.7%	84	77	28.3%	Sacramento St.
Mar. 09	Montana	36.2%	75	79	63.8%	Northern Colorado
Mar. 09	Eastern Washington	51.2%	81	80	48.8%	Weber St.