Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Big Sky

Updated with games through Sunday, January 04

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Big Sky Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th
1. Montana St. (125) 2 - 0 5 - 7 11.7 - 6.3 14.7 - 13.3 27.121.216.912.49.26.34.02.10.60.1
2. Portland St. (158) 2 - 0 5 - 5 11.2 - 6.8 14.2 - 11.8 20.318.816.914.311.48.05.43.41.20.3
3. Idaho (142) 1 - 0 6 - 5 11.5 - 7.5 16.5 - 12.5 20.117.314.813.711.79.36.94.11.80.4
4. Idaho St. (122) 1 - 1 5 - 7 11.3 - 7.7 15.3 - 13.7 16.917.215.414.312.110.07.64.31.70.4
5. Northern Colorado (146) 0 - 2 7 - 5 9.7 - 8.3 16.7 - 11.3 6.210.213.014.815.713.912.28.64.11.4
6. Weber St. (164) 1 - 1 5 - 8 8.9 - 9.1 12.9 - 16.1 3.85.98.811.313.715.916.514.57.22.4
7. Montana (195) 2 - 0 5 - 6 8.9 - 9.1 11.9 - 15.1 3.95.88.710.813.516.017.114.57.52.4
8. Eastern Washington (200) 0 - 1 1 - 12 7.8 - 10.2 8.8 - 21.2 1.73.25.07.09.713.817.320.914.07.4
9. Sacramento St. (268) 0 - 2 1 - 10 5.1 - 12.9 6.1 - 20.9 0.10.20.30.91.93.97.014.430.840.6
10. Northern Arizona (272) 0 - 2 3 - 9 4.8 - 13.2 7.8 - 20.2 0.00.10.30.51.32.86.013.031.344.6
Weekly Changes
1. Montana St. (125) +10.6+3.1+0.2-2.0-2.4-2.6-2.5-1.9-1.8-0.7
2. Portland St. (158) +17.0+12.8+7.6+3.1-1.9-6.7-9.8-9.4-7.9-4.9
3. Idaho (142) +1.1+0.1-1.8-0.2+0.4+0.5+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.4
4. Idaho St. (122) -10.7-3.0-0.7+2.3+2.4+3.7+3.6+1.9+0.4+0.1
5. Northern Colorado (146) -17.5-10.0-3.6+1.8+5.3+6.6+7.7+5.9+2.8+1.0
6. Weber St. (164) -2.4-3.9-2.4-2.6-0.8+2.0+4.5+5.1+1.2-0.6
7. Montana (195) +2.6+2.6+3.9+3.1+3.2+2.4+1.5-3.1-8.3-8.0
8. Eastern Washington (200) -0.5-1.2-1.8-2.7-2.3-1.1+1.2+5.7+2.7-0.1
9. Sacramento St. (268) -0.1-0.3-0.7-1.2-1.9-1.8-2.7-1.0+5.4+4.3
10. Northern Arizona (272) -0.1-0.3-0.8-1.5-2.0-3.1-3.7-3.4+5.5+9.3


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th
1. Montana St. 24.530.922.217.111.68.15.22.91.50.40.1
2. Portland St. 17.422.921.017.313.710.47.14.22.50.70.2
3. Idaho 19.321.117.714.613.411.48.96.64.01.70.4
4. Idaho St. 15.917.717.615.414.011.89.77.54.31.70.4
5. Northern Colorado 4.77.711.914.815.615.613.210.86.72.90.8
6. Weber St. 3.04.77.810.212.314.715.515.712.05.31.6
7. Montana 3.14.77.39.512.214.116.716.112.65.21.6
8. Eastern Washington 1.22.14.05.68.311.214.617.919.611.55.2
9. Sacramento St. 0.00.10.20.61.12.94.58.616.532.033.6
10. Northern Arizona 0.00.00.10.40.91.74.07.215.032.538.2






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 08 Montana St. 54.1% 78 77 45.9% Eastern Washington
Jan. 08 Montana 23.0% 72 80 77.0% Idaho
Jan. 08 Idaho St. 41.2% 75 77 58.8% Northern Colorado
Jan. 08 Weber St. 60.6% 75 72 39.4% Northern Arizona
Jan. 10 Montana 36.1% 81 85 63.9% Eastern Washington
Jan. 10 Montana St. 38.5% 69 72 61.5% Idaho
Jan. 10 Idaho St. 72.2% 73 66 27.8% Northern Arizona
Jan. 10 Weber St. 29.3% 77 84 70.7% Northern Colorado
Jan. 10 Sacramento St. 15.0% 69 82 85.0% Portland St.