Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Big Sky

Updated with games through Thursday, November 21

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Big Sky Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th
1. Northern Colorado (141) 0 - 0 2 - 2 11.6 - 6.4 17.1 - 10.9 29.718.714.310.68.46.44.93.52.21.2
2. Eastern Washington (171) 0 - 0 1 - 4 10.3 - 7.7 13.4 - 15.6 15.514.714.112.811.69.28.06.64.62.9
3. Montana St. (175) 0 - 0 0 - 4 10.1 - 7.9 14.2 - 15.8 13.614.713.612.910.59.88.37.35.63.6
4. Weber St. (183) 0 - 0 0 - 3 9.8 - 8.2 13.2 - 14.8 11.913.012.811.711.210.89.98.26.24.3
5. Idaho St. (205) 0 - 0 1 - 4 9.3 - 8.7 12.0 - 14.0 9.010.811.111.911.711.510.89.47.76.0
6. Montana (207) 0 - 0 0 - 3 9.3 - 8.7 12.6 - 15.4 8.710.011.411.612.111.510.59.98.36.1
7. Northern Arizona (227) 0 - 0 1 - 1 8.6 - 9.4 13.5 - 13.5 5.87.89.010.110.812.112.112.411.48.6
8. Portland St. (249) 0 - 0 1 - 1 7.8 - 10.2 12.1 - 15.9 3.65.36.68.410.111.112.913.414.814.0
9. Idaho (276) 0 - 0 0 - 3 6.9 - 11.1 9.5 - 19.5 1.42.94.35.67.59.811.814.619.522.6
10. Sacramento St. (289) 0 - 0 0 - 3 6.3 - 11.7 8.6 - 19.4 1.02.02.74.56.17.610.914.619.830.8


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th
1. Northern Colorado 24.535.019.913.210.07.25.64.22.51.70.8
2. Eastern Washington 12.219.716.414.612.710.28.37.15.73.41.9
3. Montana St. 10.717.516.414.811.99.59.37.46.24.32.7
4. Weber St. 9.515.414.613.112.210.910.68.27.34.53.2
5. Idaho St. 6.811.712.712.112.511.610.310.38.26.44.3
6. Montana 6.611.112.212.512.311.311.29.78.66.84.4
7. Northern Arizona 4.27.69.410.010.911.212.011.811.19.36.6
8. Portland St. 2.54.96.48.29.410.511.812.212.613.011.1
9. Idaho 0.92.23.85.26.88.410.612.114.817.418.6
10. Sacramento St. 0.61.52.63.65.47.08.411.415.319.025.7






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Nov. 22 UC Irvine 65.0% 73 68 35.0% Weber St.
Nov. 22 Incarnate Word 20.5% 68 78 79.5% Northern Arizona
Nov. 22 Portland St. 24.3% 72 80 75.7% Milwaukee
Nov. 23 Eastern Washington 40.0% 76 78 60.0% California Baptist
Nov. 23 Southern Utah 63.2% 75 71 36.8% Idaho
Nov. 23 Prairie View A&M 8.2% 67 85 91.8% Northern Colorado
Nov. 23 St. Thomas MN 68.4% 72 67 31.6% Portland St.
Nov. 24 Sacramento St. 6.8% 59 77 93.2% California
Nov. 24 Denver 22.1% 74 83 77.9% Montana
Nov. 24 Idaho 31.1% 69 74 68.9% San Diego
Nov. 24 Southern Miss 22.0% 69 78 78.0% Montana St.
Nov. 24 Wofford 63.9% 73 69 36.1% Portland St.
Nov. 25 Dixie St. 24.5% 70 78 75.5% Montana
Nov. 26 Abilene Christian 27.5% 69 76 72.5% Montana St.
Nov. 26 Eastern Washington 22.4% 73 82 77.6% UC Santa Barbara
Nov. 26 Northern Arizona 70.5% 72 66 29.5% Eastern Michigan
Nov. 27 Sacramento St. 22.0% 59 67 78.0% Air Force
Nov. 27 Cal St. Northridge 33.1% 71 76 66.9% Montana
Nov. 27 Northern Arizona 68.9% 76 70 31.1% Houston Baptist