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NCAA Tournament

Big South

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Big South		Current Record		Projected Record		Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
	Team	Conf.	Overall	Conf.	Overall	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
1.	High Point (85)	6 - 1	15 - 4	13.8 - 2.2	22.8 - 5.2	69.4	30.2	0.4	0.0	0.0
2.	Winthrop (124)	7 - 1	12 - 8	12.9 - 3.1	17.9 - 10.1	30.5	68.3	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
3.	UNC Asheville (207)	3 - 4	6 - 12	8.6 - 7.4	11.6 - 15.4	0.0	0.7	42.6	25.3	15.9	9.8	4.6	1.1
4.	Longwood (275)	4 - 3	9 - 10	7.8 - 8.2	12.8 - 15.2	0.1	0.6	20.8	22.0	21.7	16.9	12.2	5.7	0.0
5.	Radford (264)	4 - 3	8 - 11	7.7 - 8.3	11.7 - 16.3	0.0	0.1	14.6	21.8	22.2	20.1	16.4	4.8
6.	Presbyterian (258)	4 - 3	8 - 11	7.6 - 8.4	11.6 - 16.4		0.2	14.7	18.8	21.0	24.2	16.6	4.6	0.0
7.	Charleston Southern (210)	2 - 5	8 - 11	6.2 - 8.8	12.2 - 14.8		0.0	5.4	10.7	15.6	21.6	32.0	14.8	0.1
8.	USC Upstate (279)	1 - 6	6 - 13	4.9 - 11.1	9.9 - 18.1			0.5	1.3	3.6	7.4	18.2	64.5	4.5
9.	Gardner Webb (363)	1 - 6	1 - 18	1.6 - 13.4	1.6 - 25.4							0.1	4.5	95.4
Weekly Changes
1.	High Point (85)					+0.7	+0.0	-0.7	-0.0	-0.0	-0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
2.	Winthrop (124)					-0.4	+3.3	-2.0	-0.7	-0.2	-0.0	-0.0	-0.0	+0.0
3.	UNC Asheville (207)					-0.0	+0.1	+19.2	+2.7	-3.8	-4.6	-6.9	-6.6	-0.1
4.	Longwood (275)					+0.0	+0.2	+12.5	+10.9	+7.0	-1.4	-9.5	-19.2	-0.6
5.	Radford (264)					-0.2	-1.5	-5.5	+1.7	+3.2	+2.3	+3.2	-3.2	-0.0
6.	Presbyterian (258)					-0.1	-0.9	-0.4	+1.5	+4.1	+6.1	-0.8	-9.3	-0.0
7.	Charleston Southern (210)					-0.0	-1.0	-17.2	-7.3	-1.8	+5.8	+18.1	+3.4	+0.0
8.	USC Upstate (279)					+0.0	-0.1	-6.0	-8.8	-8.5	-8.2	-4.1	+31.8	+3.9
9.	Gardner Webb (363)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-0.0	-0.0	+3.2	-3.1

This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

			Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
	Team	Outright	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
1.	High Point	61.7	81.4	18.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
2.	Winthrop	18.6	38.2	61.2	0.5	0.1
3.	UNC Asheville	0.0	0.0	1.7	52.1	22.9	12.6	6.9	3.2	0.6
4.	Longwood	0.0	0.1	0.8	27.5	22.8	20.2	15.0	10.6	3.0	0.0
5.	Radford	0.0	0.0	0.6	24.1	22.9	19.9	16.3	13.5	2.7
6.	Presbyterian	0.0		0.4	21.1	22.7	22.5	19.2	12.3	1.8	0.0
7.	Charleston Southern	0.0		0.0	5.4	10.7	15.6	21.6	32.0	14.8	0.1
8.	USC Upstate	0.0			0.9	2.0	4.7	8.5	18.3	61.1	4.5
9.	Gardner Webb	0.0							0.2	4.7	95.1

This Week's Games

Date	Away	W Prob, Pred Score				Home
Jan. 29	Radford	23.8%	78	87	76.2%	Charleston Southern
Jan. 29	Gardner Webb	3.8%	63	86	96.2%	UNC Asheville
Jan. 29	Presbyterian	6.9%	66	84	93.1%	High Point
Jan. 29	Longwood	35.8%	72	76	64.2%	USC Upstate
Jan. 31	High Point	82.0%	87	76	18.0%	Longwood
Jan. 31	UNC Asheville	17.8%	70	80	82.2%	Winthrop
Jan. 31	Radford	33.6%	72	77	66.4%	Presbyterian