Home

Game Probabilities

Conferences

Preseason Predictions

Odds Charts

NCAA Tournament

Big South

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Big South		Current Record		Projected Record		Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
	Team	Conf.	Overall	Conf.	Overall	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
1.	High Point (95)	0 - 0	7 - 2	12.7 - 3.3	22.4 - 5.6	55.0	28.4	10.3	4.0	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.1
2.	Winthrop (115)	0 - 0	5 - 5	11.9 - 4.1	17.8 - 10.2	34.3	37.9	16.2	6.6	3.2	1.2	0.4	0.2	0.0
3.	UNC Asheville (178)	0 - 0	3 - 6	9.3 - 6.7	13.0 - 14.0	5.7	14.8	26.8	20.2	15.0	9.2	5.3	2.4	0.6
4.	USC Upstate (225)	0 - 0	4 - 5	8.1 - 7.9	13.1 - 14.9	2.2	6.6	16.0	21.2	19.4	15.2	10.6	6.9	1.9
5.	Presbyterian (260)	0 - 0	4 - 6	7.2 - 8.8	12.2 - 15.8	0.9	4.0	10.0	15.4	19.1	18.8	16.4	11.5	4.0
6.	Charleston Southern (237)	0 - 0	4 - 5	6.1 - 7.9	11.3 - 14.7	1.2	5.3	10.7	13.5	12.6	16.4	19.2	16.7	4.6
7.	Radford (277)	0 - 0	2 - 7	6.7 - 9.3	10.5 - 17.5	0.5	2.2	7.1	12.2	17.0	19.9	19.7	15.2	6.1
8.	Longwood (307)	0 - 0	4 - 5	5.5 - 10.5	10.9 - 17.1	0.1	0.8	2.8	6.7	11.1	16.2	20.8	26.8	14.6
9.	Gardner Webb (350)	0 - 0	0 - 10	2.5 - 11.5	2.8 - 23.2		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.9	2.7	7.5	20.2	68.2
Weekly Changes
1.	High Point (95)					-2.3	-2.5	+2.4	+1.4	+0.6	+0.2	+0.1	+0.1	+0.0
2.	Winthrop (115)					-0.9	-3.8	+2.6	+1.0	+1.0	+0.2	-0.1	+0.1	-0.0
3.	UNC Asheville (178)					+2.2	+4.1	+2.0	-0.1	-1.5	-2.4	-1.9	-1.7	-0.6
4.	USC Upstate (225)					+0.7	+0.7	-1.0	+1.0	+1.3	-0.7	-0.3	-0.9	-0.8
5.	Presbyterian (260)					+0.0	+0.3	-1.9	-1.5	+1.0	+1.5	+1.1	+0.2	-0.5
6.	Charleston Southern (237)					+0.3	+1.6	-1.4	+1.2	+0.4	+0.7	+0.4	-2.2	-1.0
7.	Radford (277)					+0.0	-0.0	-0.3	-0.3	-0.1	+1.6	+1.5	-0.5	-1.9
8.	Longwood (307)					-0.1	-0.3	-2.1	-2.3	-2.2	-0.6	+0.5	+5.7	+1.3
9.	Gardner Webb (350)					+0.0	+0.0	-0.2	-0.4	-0.6	-0.4	-1.3	-0.7	+3.5

This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

			Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
	Team	Outright	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
1.	High Point	47.8	61.6	25.7	8.5	2.8	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.0
2.	Winthrop	28.1	41.3	36.4	13.6	5.4	2.2	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
3.	UNC Asheville	4.1	8.2	17.6	27.8	20.4	12.2	7.5	4.0	1.8	0.5
4.	USC Upstate	1.6	3.3	8.5	18.4	23.1	17.7	13.1	8.9	5.4	1.6
5.	Presbyterian	0.6	1.4	5.3	12.2	17.6	19.1	17.5	14.3	9.2	3.5
6.	Charleston Southern	1.2	1.2	5.3	11.4	15.4	11.4	15.4	19.4	17.4	3.2
7.	Radford	0.3	0.8	3.3	8.9	14.6	17.8	18.6	17.7	12.8	5.5
8.	Longwood	0.1	0.2	1.1	4.0	8.4	12.2	16.4	20.1	23.9	13.8
9.	Gardner Webb	0.0		0.1	0.2	0.4	0.8	3.0	7.9	21.1	66.5

This Week's Games

Date	Away	W Prob, Pred Score				Home
Dec. 13	Delaware St.	12.1%	67	81	87.9%	Longwood
Dec. 13	USC Upstate	2.5%	62	89	97.5%	North Carolina
Dec. 13	St. Thomas MN	50.0%	75	74	50.0%	UNC Asheville
Dec. 14	High Point	84.1%	78	66	15.9%	Appalachian St.
Dec. 14	Coppin St.	4.9%	65	87	95.1%	Radford
Dec. 15	Wofford	73.2%	81	73	26.8%	Gardner Webb
Dec. 16	USC Upstate	77.7%	78	69	22.3%	South Carolina St.
Dec. 17	Presbyterian	47.0%	67	68	53.0%	East Carolina
Dec. 17	Longwood	2.6%	65	93	97.4%	Wake Forest
Dec. 18	North Florida	21.2%	77	86	78.8%	Charleston Southern
Dec. 18	Winthrop	79.9%	86	76	20.1%	North Dakota
Dec. 18	Radford	9.6%	74	91	90.4%	William & Mary