Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Big West

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Big West Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. UC San Diego (100) 1 - 0 7 - 1 14.5 - 5.5 22.6 - 7.4 32.426.318.611.56.02.91.40.70.20.10.0
2. Hawaii (103) 2 - 0 8 - 2 14.4 - 5.6 21.2 - 7.8 30.626.919.811.56.22.71.20.60.30.10.0
3. UC Irvine (105) 2 - 0 5 - 4 14.1 - 5.9 18.2 - 10.8 27.224.820.613.37.03.62.10.90.30.20.0
4. UC Davis (154) 0 - 1 4 - 3 11.1 - 8.9 16.1 - 12.9 4.08.313.818.517.313.69.87.24.12.41.1
5. UC Santa Barbara (165) 2 - 0 6 - 2 11.0 - 9.0 16.5 - 12.5 3.97.812.716.917.514.910.97.64.62.30.7
6. UC Riverside (209) 1 - 1 4 - 5 9.3 - 10.7 12.6 - 17.4 0.82.45.59.915.016.515.313.510.27.23.5
7. Cal Poly (198) 1 - 1 3 - 6 9.0 - 11.0 12.0 - 18.0 0.72.04.88.412.515.916.714.611.88.44.3
8. Cal St. Northridge (248) 1 - 1 4 - 5 7.8 - 12.2 12.0 - 18.0 0.20.72.04.17.411.214.116.818.416.58.5
9. Cal St. Fullerton (230) 0 - 2 2 - 7 7.5 - 12.5 9.9 - 20.1 0.20.61.53.86.39.813.716.118.417.012.6
10. Long Beach St. (271) 0 - 2 1 - 9 6.5 - 13.5 8.1 - 21.9 0.00.10.51.63.86.210.414.218.622.721.7
11. Cal St. Bakersfield (302) 0 - 2 3 - 7 5.0 - 15.0 8.8 - 21.2 0.00.10.50.92.74.47.713.123.147.4
Weekly Changes
1. UC San Diego (100) +1.7+0.9+0.1-0.2-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.2-0.4-0.1-0.0
2. Hawaii (103) +0.3+1.9+0.7-0.0-0.2-1.0-0.8-0.3-0.3-0.1-0.0
3. UC Irvine (105) -0.5-0.5+1.5+0.9-0.4-0.5-0.1-0.1-0.3+0.0-0.0
4. UC Davis (154) -0.1+0.3+1.3+2.0+0.7+0.9-0.8-0.9-1.4-1.1-0.9
5. UC Santa Barbara (165) +0.3+1.7+1.7+2.8+1.6-0.7-1.3-1.7-1.5-1.6-1.3
6. UC Riverside (209) +0.7+1.6+3.5+5.8+8.0+6.3+3.1-1.0-6.6-9.7-11.6
7. Cal Poly (198) -1.9-3.9-5.7-7.0-4.3+0.8+3.9+5.8+5.6+4.4+2.4
8. Cal St. Northridge (248) -0.3-1.0-1.3-1.7-1.9-1.3+0.1+1.7+3.6+2.8-0.6
9. Cal St. Fullerton (230) -0.1-0.4-0.8-0.6-0.8-0.5+0.7+0.2+2.3+1.0-1.0
10. Long Beach St. (271) -0.1-0.2-0.3-0.5+0.3+0.0+0.6+1.0+2.3+2.8-6.1
11. Cal St. Bakersfield (302) -0.1-0.3-0.7-1.4-2.4-3.4-4.6-4.6-3.4+1.7+19.2


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. UC San Diego 26.539.026.117.29.84.41.90.90.40.20.10.0
2. Hawaii 25.237.226.718.19.94.61.81.00.40.20.1
3. UC Irvine 22.033.225.219.111.85.52.81.40.60.30.10.0
4. UC Davis 2.55.910.115.819.316.412.78.75.43.21.80.7
5. UC Santa Barbara 2.75.69.314.718.217.913.49.26.13.51.60.4
6. UC Riverside 0.51.23.56.912.116.216.415.312.08.85.32.3
7. Cal Poly 0.41.03.05.710.514.416.316.413.49.96.42.9
8. Cal St. Northridge 0.10.41.12.75.49.312.215.316.717.013.66.2
9. Cal St. Fullerton 0.10.20.82.15.17.911.614.516.317.314.49.6
10. Long Beach St. 0.00.10.30.82.35.18.111.715.019.020.717.0
11. Cal St. Bakersfield 0.00.00.00.20.71.63.35.79.014.923.840.9






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 13 UC Riverside 1.4% 64 94 98.6% BYU
Dec. 13 Pepperdine 45.4% 72 74 54.6% Cal St. Bakersfield
Dec. 13 Cal St. Fullerton 30.6% 83 89 69.4% Denver
Dec. 13 Cal St. Northridge 34.8% 78 82 65.2% Delaware
Dec. 13 UC Davis 21.0% 67 76 79.0% Oregon
Dec. 13 Utah Valley 77.4% 82 73 22.6% UC Santa Barbara
Dec. 14 Tulane 20.3% 73 82 79.7% UC San Diego
Dec. 14 UTEP 13.6% 61 74 86.4% Hawaii
Dec. 16 Montana St. 53.2% 78 77 46.8% Cal Poly
Dec. 16 UC San Diego 47.2% 70 71 52.8% Loyola Marymount
Dec. 17 Seattle 51.6% 69 68 48.4% UC Davis
Dec. 17 UC Santa Barbara 51.2% 75 74 48.8% Green Bay
Dec. 18 Pepperdine 35.6% 69 73 64.4% Long Beach St.