Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Big West

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Big West Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Hawaii (90) 7 - 2 14 - 4 15.3 - 4.7 22.3 - 6.7 52.333.710.13.00.70.20.1
2. UC Irvine (110) 7 - 2 12 - 7 14.9 - 5.1 19.9 - 10.1 39.739.414.14.71.60.40.10.0
3. UC San Diego (108) 5 - 4 13 - 6 12.5 - 7.5 20.5 - 9.5 4.914.637.023.411.95.82.00.40.10.0
4. UC Santa Barbara (156) 6 - 3 11 - 7 11.6 - 8.4 16.6 - 12.4 2.58.419.525.420.514.86.71.70.40.10.0
5. UC Davis (184) 5 - 4 10 - 8 10.4 - 9.6 15.4 - 13.6 0.42.28.119.724.520.814.06.62.90.70.2
6. Cal St. Fullerton (185) 5 - 5 8 - 12 10.2 - 9.8 13.2 - 16.8 0.21.37.914.921.924.318.17.62.70.80.3
7. Cal St. Northridge (209) 4 - 5 9 - 10 9.2 - 10.8 14.2 - 15.8 0.10.42.97.212.417.424.120.010.54.10.8
8. Long Beach St. (235) 4 - 5 6 - 13 7.9 - 12.1 9.9 - 20.1 0.00.41.24.310.820.528.321.39.83.4
9. Cal Poly (256) 3 - 6 5 - 14 6.9 - 13.1 8.9 - 21.1 0.10.41.63.58.919.628.224.313.4
10. UC Riverside (273) 2 - 7 5 - 14 5.9 - 14.1 8.9 - 21.1 0.00.00.51.43.911.221.631.929.5
11. Cal St. Bakersfield (303) 2 - 7 6 - 13 5.1 - 14.9 9.1 - 20.9 0.00.10.51.64.612.428.352.4
Weekly Changes
1. Hawaii (90) -3.2+6.8-1.8-0.8-0.5-0.3-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0
2. UC Irvine (110) +13.7+7.2-9.2-5.7-3.0-1.7-0.8-0.3-0.1+0.0+0.0
3. UC San Diego (108) -9.3-11.0+9.6+7.7+3.8+0.8-0.5-0.6-0.3-0.0+0.0
4. UC Santa Barbara (156) +1.1+4.0+10.1+9.5+1.3-2.0-7.3-8.2-6.0-2.3-0.2
5. UC Davis (184) -1.8-4.9-7.5-4.0+5.5+7.9+5.2+0.8-0.5-0.7+0.1
6. Cal St. Fullerton (185) +0.0+0.3+4.0+5.8+8.7+8.0+0.5-9.0-10.4-6.0-1.9
7. Cal St. Northridge (209) -0.3-1.4-1.7-2.6-2.0+1.0+6.6+4.4-2.0-1.7-0.3
8. Long Beach St. (235) -0.1-0.6-1.7-4.8-6.4-3.4+3.1+9.4+3.3+0.7+0.5
9. Cal Poly (256) -0.1-0.4-1.7-4.4-6.1-8.3-5.8+1.0+7.6+10.2+7.9
10. UC Riverside (273) +0.0-0.0-0.0-0.6-0.9-2.0-1.4+0.9+4.1-2.6+2.5
11. Cal St. Bakersfield (303) +0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.5+1.6+4.3+2.4-8.5


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Hawaii 43.862.530.45.71.20.30.00.0
2. UC Irvine 32.350.637.09.02.50.60.20.0
3. UC San Diego 2.06.317.942.720.38.53.20.90.20.0
4. UC Santa Barbara 0.93.210.626.328.817.58.93.41.00.20.00.0
5. UC Davis 0.10.63.111.420.924.520.012.25.21.70.30.1
6. Cal St. Fullerton 0.00.31.89.819.224.723.014.25.11.50.30.1
7. Cal St. Northridge 0.00.10.74.110.216.421.323.214.36.72.30.4
8. Long Beach St. 0.00.10.73.06.813.220.928.418.17.01.8
9. Cal Poly 0.00.10.72.45.312.824.329.217.27.8
10. UC Riverside 0.00.00.10.72.35.813.724.033.520.0
11. Cal St. Bakersfield 0.00.00.20.92.57.215.627.646.0






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 29 Cal Poly 47.2% 83 84 52.8% Cal St. Bakersfield
Jan. 29 UC Davis 41.9% 82 84 58.1% Cal St. Northridge
Jan. 29 Hawaii 43.1% 65 67 56.9% UC Irvine
Jan. 29 Long Beach St. 42.7% 73 75 57.3% UC Riverside
Jan. 29 UC Santa Barbara 23.1% 71 79 76.9% UC San Diego
Jan. 31 Cal Poly 38.6% 79 83 61.4% UC Riverside
Jan. 31 UC Davis 65.5% 80 76 34.5% Cal St. Bakersfield
Jan. 31 Cal St. Fullerton 29.5% 78 84 70.5% UC Santa Barbara
Jan. 31 UC San Diego 62.6% 83 79 37.4% Cal St. Northridge
Jan. 31 Hawaii 75.1% 75 67 24.9% Long Beach St.