Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Colonial

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Colonial Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
1. UNC Wilmington (126) 7 - 1 16 - 3 13.5 - 4.5 22.5 - 6.5 59.220.110.95.72.51.10.40.20.0
2. William & Mary (117) 5 - 3 12 - 6 12.0 - 6.0 19.0 - 9.0 20.331.821.711.56.34.12.21.20.60.30.10.0
3. Hofstra (109) 4 - 4 11 - 8 11.3 - 6.7 18.3 - 10.7 7.619.726.120.711.86.73.42.10.90.70.20.00.0
4. College of Charleston (175) 6 - 2 12 - 8 11.0 - 7.0 17.0 - 13.0 10.517.718.418.414.39.35.33.41.50.70.50.10.0
5. Monmouth (188) 4 - 4 9 - 11 9.3 - 8.7 14.3 - 15.7 1.04.26.810.813.414.212.511.910.07.65.51.70.4
6. Towson (167) 4 - 5 10 - 10 9.1 - 8.9 15.1 - 13.9 0.42.05.210.714.715.715.012.39.77.95.01.20.2
7. Drexel (208) 4 - 4 9 - 11 9.0 - 9.0 14.0 - 16.0 0.21.83.77.912.313.915.013.412.09.57.22.40.8
8. Elon (189) 4 - 4 10 - 9 8.8 - 9.2 14.8 - 14.2 0.71.83.86.39.813.215.415.413.810.66.52.10.3
9. Stony Brook (245) 4 - 4 10 - 9 7.9 - 10.1 13.9 - 15.1 0.10.41.33.45.27.39.711.815.918.419.75.81.1
10. Campbell (215) 3 - 5 7 - 12 7.7 - 10.3 11.7 - 17.3 0.00.21.02.54.67.110.313.716.718.415.97.02.6
11. Hampton (236) 4 - 4 8 - 11 7.7 - 10.3 11.7 - 17.3 0.00.41.12.14.97.19.912.614.817.218.48.43.0
12. Northeastern (253) 2 - 7 6 - 14 5.0 - 13.0 9.0 - 20.0 0.00.00.10.20.30.91.94.511.245.935.1
13. North Carolina A&T (269) 2 - 6 7 - 10 4.8 - 13.2 9.8 - 17.2 0.00.00.10.20.61.12.24.29.725.356.4
Weekly Changes
1. UNC Wilmington (126) +8.2-3.2-1.1-0.6-1.3-0.7-0.7-0.3-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0
2. William & Mary (117) +13.7+18.6+4.7-3.9-7.5-7.6-6.2-4.7-3.4-2.1-1.1-0.4-0.0
3. Hofstra (109) -22.9-13.9+8.9+11.6+6.8+4.2+2.3+1.4+0.6+0.6+0.2+0.0+0.0
4. College of Charleston (175) +6.0+7.8+4.1+3.6+0.2-1.7-4.3-5.0-4.4-3.3-1.8-1.0-0.2
5. Monmouth (188) +0.1+1.1+1.1+2.2+3.0+2.7+0.1-0.4-1.5-3.2-2.3-2.6-0.2
6. Towson (167) +0.0-0.1-0.3+2.3+3.8+3.0+1.4-1.1-2.5-2.2-2.1-1.9-0.3
7. Drexel (208) +0.1+0.8-0.0+1.1+3.3+2.7+2.1-0.1-1.9-2.6-2.5-3.2+0.2
8. Elon (189) -4.7-8.9-11.3-8.8-3.5+1.0+5.5+8.1+8.9+7.0+4.8+1.6+0.3
9. Stony Brook (245) +0.1+0.3+1.0+2.5+3.6+4.5+4.7+4.3+4.3+1.8-4.3-21.5-1.2
10. Campbell (215) -0.4-2.2-6.3-8.3-7.9-7.4-3.8+0.8+5.9+10.5+11.5+5.4+2.4
11. Hampton (236) -0.1-0.2-0.5-1.2+0.6+0.6+1.3+1.0+0.1-0.0+1.3-3.9+1.2
12. Northeastern (253) -0.0-0.0-0.1-0.5-1.1-1.5-3.0-5.0-7.9-9.9-11.5+9.0+31.6
13. North Carolina A&T (269) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.5+0.9+1.9+3.5+8.0+18.5-33.7


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
1. UNC Wilmington 55.674.314.76.62.81.10.50.10.0
2. William & Mary 11.425.937.320.08.64.22.11.00.50.30.10.0
3. Hofstra 4.012.828.124.316.79.24.42.41.30.50.30.10.0
4. College of Charleston 4.812.620.821.519.012.46.83.62.00.90.30.10.0
5. Monmouth 0.21.45.89.514.515.414.212.310.17.94.93.00.80.1
6. Towson 0.10.83.97.813.416.815.813.011.08.15.73.20.50.0
7. Drexel 0.10.73.87.012.015.114.813.111.29.06.64.91.40.3
8. Elon 0.21.23.05.99.513.114.914.513.410.77.74.81.20.2
9. Stony Brook 0.00.10.92.45.28.211.011.913.815.013.813.13.70.9
10. Campbell 0.00.10.82.24.26.99.311.614.015.515.413.45.01.6
11. Hampton 0.00.10.91.93.56.49.212.213.715.615.814.54.71.3
12. Northeastern 0.00.00.00.00.20.40.82.03.86.914.638.832.5
13. North Carolina A&T 0.00.00.00.00.20.50.82.03.66.013.135.538.2






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 29 Stony Brook 28.3% 73 80 71.7% Campbell
Jan. 29 College of Charleston 20.3% 71 80 79.7% Hofstra
Jan. 29 Hampton 28.5% 62 68 71.5% Drexel
Jan. 29 William & Mary 54.0% 85 84 46.0% Elon
Jan. 29 North Carolina A&T 19.1% 68 78 80.9% Monmouth
Jan. 29 UNC Wilmington 47.0% 63 64 53.0% Towson
Jan. 31 Campbell 16.3% 78 91 83.7% William & Mary
Jan. 31 College of Charleston 54.2% 81 80 45.8% Northeastern
Jan. 31 North Carolina A&T 23.3% 66 74 76.7% Drexel
Jan. 31 Stony Brook 23.5% 72 80 76.5% Elon
Jan. 31 Hampton 21.0% 59 67 79.0% Towson
Jan. 31 Hofstra 55.9% 71 70 44.1% Monmouth