Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Colonial

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Colonial Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
1. William & Mary (109) 0 - 0 6 - 3 12.8 - 5.2 19.7 - 8.3 33.221.515.310.66.94.63.11.91.10.90.50.30.1
2. Hofstra (124) 0 - 0 5 - 4 12.2 - 5.8 18.3 - 10.7 21.421.216.912.69.96.44.73.01.81.30.50.20.1
3. UNC Wilmington (127) 0 - 0 8 - 1 12.1 - 5.9 21.6 - 7.4 22.419.116.712.69.36.55.13.32.21.50.80.30.1
4. Towson (151) 0 - 0 5 - 4 10.8 - 7.2 16.7 - 12.3 9.913.314.214.112.110.07.76.04.73.42.41.40.7
5. College of Charleston (175) 0 - 0 3 - 6 9.5 - 8.5 14.6 - 15.4 3.76.78.510.511.411.510.79.98.87.35.33.52.1
6. Elon (177) 0 - 0 4 - 4 9.2 - 8.8 14.7 - 14.3 3.05.77.89.611.812.211.110.69.27.25.63.92.4
7. Monmouth (206) 0 - 0 4 - 5 8.6 - 9.4 14.5 - 15.5 1.83.65.47.98.710.511.511.210.39.58.56.74.4
8. Stony Brook (218) 0 - 0 5 - 3 8.1 - 9.9 15.1 - 13.9 1.32.64.36.28.29.310.311.611.210.710.08.65.6
9. Northeastern (215) 0 - 0 4 - 5 8.1 - 9.9 12.2 - 15.8 1.93.14.66.37.58.610.010.410.610.610.39.26.8
10. Hampton (250) 0 - 0 3 - 5 7.3 - 10.7 12.2 - 16.8 0.71.42.84.05.56.68.710.011.612.312.912.610.9
11. Campbell (261) 0 - 0 2 - 5 7.1 - 10.9 10.6 - 18.4 0.41.02.13.44.77.18.59.712.012.913.812.811.5
12. Drexel (288) 0 - 0 3 - 6 5.9 - 12.1 11.0 - 19.0 0.10.30.91.32.23.74.86.89.111.915.320.223.4
13. North Carolina A&T (290) 0 - 0 3 - 4 5.4 - 12.6 9.6 - 17.4 0.10.40.51.11.82.83.95.67.410.513.820.231.9
Weekly Changes
1. William & Mary (109) +2.3-0.7-0.5-0.8-0.3-0.4+0.3-0.0-0.2+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.0
2. Hofstra (124) +4.3+2.3-0.0-2.8-0.9-1.1-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.4-0.2-0.1
3. UNC Wilmington (127) -0.5-0.9-0.7-0.7-0.9+0.5+1.4+0.8+0.3+0.3+0.2+0.0-0.1
4. Towson (151) -8.8-5.9-2.9+0.5+2.2+2.9+2.4+2.6+2.4+1.9+1.5+0.8+0.5
5. College of Charleston (175) -0.2+0.5-0.4-0.6-1.2-0.6+0.1+0.3+0.3+0.9+0.7+0.1+0.1
6. Elon (177) +2.2+3.8+4.2+4.6+4.6+2.5+0.4-0.7-2.7-4.2-5.1-5.2-4.5
7. Monmouth (206) -0.4-0.2-0.7-0.5-1.7-0.6+0.0+0.1+0.4+1.0+1.1+1.1+0.5
8. Stony Brook (218) +0.4+0.5+0.9+0.9+0.9+0.0+0.4+0.7+0.3-1.3-0.7-1.1-1.9
9. Northeastern (215) +0.7+1.0+0.7+0.9+0.2+0.7+0.4+0.5+0.2-0.3-1.3-1.1-2.6
10. Hampton (250) +0.1-0.3-0.3-0.6-1.0-1.7-1.6-1.1+0.1+0.4+1.2+2.2+2.5
11. Campbell (261) -0.0-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.7-0.7-1.5-0.7+0.3+0.9+1.7+0.4+0.8
12. Drexel (288) -0.0-0.2-0.2-0.7-1.2-1.4-1.6-1.7-1.0-0.2+0.2+2.7+5.3
13. North Carolina A&T (290) +0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.4-0.3-0.1+0.6+0.6+0.1-0.6


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
1. William & Mary 26.539.022.514.59.35.43.82.31.40.70.60.30.10.0
2. Hofstra 17.928.822.415.811.58.05.03.52.31.40.70.30.20.1
3. UNC Wilmington 17.527.920.916.211.88.15.44.02.41.61.00.50.20.1
4. Towson 7.013.515.714.814.711.28.67.05.03.92.61.51.10.5
5. College of Charleston 2.55.58.610.111.912.111.210.19.07.65.94.02.61.4
6. Elon 2.04.47.59.211.212.311.810.810.27.66.14.32.91.6
7. Monmouth 1.12.65.16.88.910.211.311.411.19.58.46.55.13.1
8. Stony Brook 0.81.93.85.37.79.510.111.111.510.39.68.36.94.0
9. Northeastern 1.12.54.15.37.58.39.910.510.810.210.19.17.14.6
10. Hampton 0.51.12.03.34.86.87.69.511.111.312.311.810.57.8
11. Campbell 0.40.71.73.03.96.18.09.510.811.912.612.710.88.3
12. Drexel 0.10.20.61.11.83.24.65.78.110.212.214.918.219.1
13. North Carolina A&T 0.00.10.40.91.62.23.75.16.58.711.414.319.425.7






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 12 Md Eastern Shore 15.7% 59 70 84.3% North Carolina A&T
Dec. 13 Central Michigan 13.7% 67 79 86.3% Stony Brook
Dec. 13 Northern Illinois 7.5% 71 89 92.5% Elon
Dec. 13 Howard 36.4% 71 75 63.6% Hampton
Dec. 13 Hofstra 23.6% 65 73 76.4% Syracuse
Dec. 13 UNC Wilmington 63.3% 71 67 36.7% Valparaiso
Dec. 14 Ball St. 15.9% 65 76 84.1% Campbell
Dec. 14 Charlotte 30.6% 68 74 69.4% College of Charleston
Dec. 14 Monmouth 54.5% 75 74 45.5% Fairfield
Dec. 16 Howard 31.4% 68 73 68.6% Drexel
Dec. 16 Towson 3.4% 56 77 96.6% Kansas
Dec. 16 North Carolina A&T 30.5% 72 78 69.5% UNC Greensboro
Dec. 17 Albany 14.1% 68 80 85.9% Stony Brook
Dec. 17 Campbell 0.5% 57 97 99.5% Gonzaga
Dec. 17 The Citadel 4.7% 64 83 95.3% College of Charleston
Dec. 17 Richmond 54.9% 80 79 45.1% Elon
Dec. 17 Quinnipiac 39.6% 75 78 60.4% Monmouth
Dec. 18 Jackson St. 22.2% 67 75 77.8% Hampton
Dec. 18 Radford 9.6% 74 91 90.4% William & Mary