Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Conference USA

Updated with games through Wednesday, February 18

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Conference USA Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Liberty (95) 14 - 0 19 - 3 18.6 - 1.4 23.6 - 4.4 99.90.1
2. Sam Houston St. (110) 10 - 5 15 - 8 13.6 - 6.4 18.6 - 9.4 0.196.92.70.20.10.0
3. Western Kentucky (185) 8 - 7 13 - 11 10.4 - 9.6 15.4 - 13.6 1.128.621.016.613.68.85.53.41.00.40.0
4. Kennesaw St. (164) 7 - 8 12 - 11 10.0 - 10.0 15.0 - 13.0 0.124.620.215.114.012.36.93.32.11.00.4
5. Jacksonville St. (220) 8 - 7 10 - 13 9.9 - 10.1 11.9 - 16.1 1.421.419.816.912.510.98.44.72.61.10.2
6. Louisiana Tech (246) 8 - 7 12 - 11 9.8 - 10.2 13.8 - 14.2 0.312.217.818.916.413.89.66.23.90.90.1
7. Middle Tennessee (153) 6 - 9 9 - 14 9.2 - 10.8 12.2 - 15.8 0.04.59.915.415.616.214.19.88.04.52.1
8. Missouri St. (219) 7 - 8 10 - 13 9.0 - 11.0 12.0 - 16.0 0.14.05.99.013.016.125.515.07.92.90.6
9. New Mexico St. (158) 5 - 10 9 - 13 8.0 - 12.0 12.0 - 15.0 1.32.63.15.28.39.319.120.822.18.2
10. FIU (195) 5 - 9 9 - 13 7.7 - 12.3 11.7 - 16.3 0.00.51.63.36.58.512.018.918.215.115.2
11. UTEP (262) 6 - 9 7 - 16 7.5 - 12.5 8.5 - 19.5 0.20.81.52.64.36.915.427.531.59.3
12. Delaware (269) 5 - 10 9 - 16 6.4 - 13.6 10.4 - 19.6 0.00.10.20.60.81.84.18.220.363.8
Weekly Changes
1. Liberty (95) +0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Sam Houston St. (110) -0.1+26.8-15.1-6.8-3.0-1.2-0.6-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0
3. Western Kentucky (185) +0.0+0.4+24.6+12.2+0.6-12.1-9.9-6.4-4.1-3.1-1.8-0.4
4. Kennesaw St. (164) +0.0-8.6+3.8-1.0-4.0+1.6+4.3+1.8+0.8+0.5+0.3+0.4
5. Jacksonville St. (220) -0.0-5.5-0.4-11.6-5.1+3.1+6.5+6.1+3.6+2.1+0.9+0.2
6. Louisiana Tech (246) +0.0-0.0+9.7+13.5+11.5+5.1-1.8-9.8-11.0-9.7-6.5-1.0
7. Middle Tennessee (153) +0.0-1.2+1.0+3.8+5.4+2.3-0.6-3.3-5.1-2.4-1.0+1.2
8. Missouri St. (219) +0.0-11.7-25.3-12.7-6.5+2.0+8.7+20.9+13.5+7.6+2.9+0.6
9. New Mexico St. (158) +0.0+0.0+1.3+2.2+1.9+3.0+3.5+0.4+4.0-2.2-17.0+2.8
10. FIU (195) +0.0-0.0+0.2+0.3-1.1-4.0-9.1-7.3+0.3+1.8+5.8+13.1
11. UTEP (262) +0.0-0.0+0.1-0.1+0.1-0.5-1.7-3.8-5.2-0.4+3.5+8.0
12. Delaware (269) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.6+0.6+1.4+3.2+5.8+12.8-24.8


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Liberty 99.8100.0
2. Sam Houston St. 0.00.299.10.60.10.0
3. Western Kentucky 0.02.149.621.211.68.34.41.40.90.40.0
4. Kennesaw St. 0.00.734.623.915.211.87.23.32.30.50.20.1
5. Jacksonville St. 0.02.028.723.717.314.28.33.71.90.30.0
6. Louisiana Tech 0.00.727.520.616.614.710.45.43.50.60.0
7. Middle Tennessee 0.00.113.316.616.416.514.09.87.53.31.80.6
8. Missouri St. 0.00.411.711.911.715.214.316.211.25.22.00.1
9. New Mexico St. 0.02.03.55.59.39.916.322.716.110.83.8
10. FIU 0.00.01.82.75.18.27.814.219.619.714.86.2
11. UTEP 0.00.01.11.83.64.85.711.820.122.122.06.9
12. Delaware 0.00.10.20.40.91.24.27.613.424.847.2






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Feb. 19 FIU 14.9% 72 84 85.1% Liberty
Feb. 21 Delaware 15.8% 62 73 84.2% Middle Tennessee
Feb. 21 Missouri St. 29.6% 74 81 70.4% FIU
Feb. 21 Jacksonville St. 14.5% 68 80 85.5% Sam Houston St.
Feb. 21 Louisiana Tech 20.2% 68 77 79.8% Kennesaw St.
Feb. 21 Western Kentucky 16.0% 68 80 84.0% Liberty
Feb. 21 UTEP 17.6% 64 74 82.4% New Mexico St.