Conference USA
Updated with games through Thursday, November 21
Conference Projections
Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the
Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.
| Conference USA |
Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Conf. |
Overall |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th |
| 1. |
Liberty (82) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
12.7 - 5.3 |
20.2 - 6.8 |
39.6 | 22.4 | 14.0 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2. |
Louisiana Tech (106) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 0 |
11.5 - 6.5 |
18.5 - 9.5 |
21.7 | 20.2 | 17.1 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 3. |
Western Kentucky (121) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
10.6 - 7.4 |
16.3 - 12.7 |
12.8 | 16.1 | 16.4 | 14.8 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| 4. |
Sam Houston St. (124) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
10.5 - 7.5 |
15.2 - 12.8 |
13.1 | 15.9 | 15.4 | 14.5 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 5. |
Middle Tennessee (169) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
8.9 - 9.1 |
14.2 - 13.8 |
4.3 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 5.9 |
| 6. |
New Mexico St. (185) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
8.2 - 9.8 |
12.4 - 14.6 |
3.2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 11.8 | 8.8 |
| 7. |
UTEP (197) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 1 |
7.9 - 10.1 |
12.7 - 14.3 |
2.3 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 11.0 |
| 8. |
Jacksonville St. (209) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
7.6 - 10.4 |
12.3 - 14.7 |
2.0 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 13.3 | 14.3 | 15.6 | 14.0 | 12.3 |
| 9. |
Kennesaw St. (248) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
6.4 - 11.6 |
10.2 - 17.8 |
0.6 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 15.6 | 20.6 | 24.0 |
| 10. |
FIU (268) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 3 |
5.7 - 12.3 |
9.0 - 20.0 |
0.4 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 15.6 | 21.1 | 33.3 |
This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.
|
Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Outright |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th |
| 1. |
Liberty |
33.7 | 46.0 | 21.7 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2. |
Louisiana Tech |
17.2 | 26.7 | 22.0 | 16.3 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 3. |
Western Kentucky |
10.0 | 16.8 | 18.0 | 17.0 | 14.4 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 4. |
Sam Houston St. |
10.0 | 16.4 | 17.5 | 16.4 | 14.4 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 5. |
Middle Tennessee |
3.1 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 4.3 |
| 6. |
New Mexico St. |
2.2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 6.6 |
| 7. |
UTEP |
1.6 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 11.3 | 8.2 |
| 8. |
Jacksonville St. |
1.4 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 11.4 | 13.5 | 13.9 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 9.2 |
| 9. |
Kennesaw St. |
0.4 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 10.7 | 13.6 | 15.8 | 19.0 | 19.4 |
| 10. |
FIU |
0.3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 16.0 | 20.8 | 27.8 |
