Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Conference USA

Updated with games through Tuesday, December 30

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Conference USA Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Liberty (111) 1 - 0 6 - 3 13.7 - 6.3 18.7 - 9.3 27.821.817.012.28.85.63.41.90.90.40.10.0
2. Sam Houston St. (95) 0 - 1 5 - 4 13.7 - 6.3 18.7 - 9.3 26.023.717.212.68.45.43.31.71.10.40.20.0
3. Middle Tennessee (128) 1 - 0 4 - 5 12.7 - 7.3 15.7 - 12.3 16.916.617.115.011.78.36.13.72.41.50.60.2
4. New Mexico St. (134) 1 - 0 5 - 3 12.7 - 7.3 16.7 - 10.3 17.317.216.514.411.48.56.04.02.41.40.70.1
5. Western Kentucky (141) 0 - 1 5 - 5 10.8 - 9.2 15.8 - 13.2 5.07.910.613.313.613.411.79.26.65.12.70.9
6. Kennesaw St. (155) 0 - 1 5 - 4 10.6 - 9.4 15.6 - 12.4 3.86.79.112.013.813.912.010.28.06.13.31.1
7. Louisiana Tech (201) 1 - 0 5 - 4 9.2 - 10.8 13.2 - 14.8 1.52.64.56.09.612.213.014.312.711.19.13.4
8. Missouri St. (233) 1 - 0 4 - 5 8.4 - 11.6 11.4 - 16.6 0.51.12.54.06.58.812.113.516.216.013.75.1
9. FIU (198) 0 - 1 4 - 5 8.2 - 11.8 12.2 - 15.8 0.30.92.14.06.28.911.714.215.515.415.05.6
10. UTEP (228) 0 - 1 1 - 8 7.9 - 12.1 8.9 - 19.1 0.30.81.83.45.07.610.312.914.616.617.59.2
11. Jacksonville St. (245) 1 - 0 3 - 6 7.8 - 12.2 9.8 - 18.2 0.40.71.63.04.96.99.312.215.017.318.510.1
12. Delaware (299) 0 - 1 4 - 7 4.4 - 15.6 8.4 - 21.6 0.00.00.10.30.51.22.14.68.518.464.3
Weekly Changes
1. Liberty (111) +5.1+2.5+0.7-1.4-2.0-1.6-1.5-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.2-0.1
2. Sam Houston St. (95) -0.7+1.0-0.2+0.1-0.2+0.2-0.2-0.1+0.1-0.1+0.0-0.0
3. Middle Tennessee (128) +5.1+2.6+2.5+0.1-2.1-2.4-2.0-1.5-1.1-0.4-0.5-0.2
4. New Mexico St. (134) -0.3+0.0-0.1+0.7-0.1-0.2-0.3+0.1-0.0+0.1+0.2-0.1
5. Western Kentucky (141) -9.3-6.1-3.8-1.1+1.3+2.2+4.1+4.1+3.2+3.2+1.6+0.6
6. Kennesaw St. (155) -0.3+0.4+0.2+0.9+0.8-1.7-1.4-0.6+0.1+1.3+0.5-0.2
7. Louisiana Tech (201) +0.8+1.0+1.9+0.8+2.1+2.6+0.5+0.2-2.0-2.0-1.8-4.0
8. Missouri St. (233) +0.4+0.6+1.4+2.0+2.5+2.8+3.4+0.9+1.0-2.3-3.3-9.4
9. FIU (198) -0.5-1.1-1.3-1.3-1.0-1.1-0.9-1.1+0.8+2.6+5.1-0.1
10. UTEP (228) -0.7-1.2-1.9-2.6-3.5-3.1-2.7-1.5+1.1+4.5+8.2+3.4
11. Jacksonville St. (245) +0.4+0.4+1.1+2.0+3.1+3.7+4.2+4.1+2.9+0.8-4.3-18.4
12. Delaware (299) -0.0-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.9-1.5-3.0-4.0-5.5-7.3-5.6+28.6


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Liberty 23.135.822.615.510.86.64.12.41.30.60.20.1
2. Sam Houston St. 22.034.524.415.910.56.04.12.41.00.70.40.10.0
3. Middle Tennessee 12.221.118.617.814.510.27.54.32.71.71.10.40.1
4. New Mexico St. 11.920.219.317.414.610.47.34.53.11.80.90.40.1
5. Western Kentucky 3.16.39.612.113.814.213.110.98.35.54.01.90.4
6. Kennesaw St. 2.65.58.410.913.114.113.711.48.86.44.62.50.7
7. Louisiana Tech 1.12.13.55.57.911.113.113.513.211.59.47.02.2
8. Missouri St. 0.40.91.73.35.57.910.612.613.914.914.010.63.9
9. FIU 0.20.61.63.15.37.510.212.214.214.913.712.44.3
10. UTEP 0.20.51.32.64.56.49.011.513.614.914.914.66.4
11. Jacksonville St. 0.30.61.12.13.86.08.610.713.115.516.215.37.0
12. Delaware 0.00.00.00.10.10.30.81.83.16.010.220.457.2






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 02 Jacksonville St. 49.4% 66 67 50.6% Delaware
Jan. 02 New Mexico St. 52.7% 74 73 47.3% FIU
Jan. 02 Kennesaw St. 24.1% 73 81 75.9% Liberty
Jan. 02 Louisiana Tech 19.5% 60 69 80.5% Middle Tennessee
Jan. 02 UTEP 35.8% 63 67 64.2% Missouri St.
Jan. 02 Sam Houston St. 49.8% 81 82 50.2% Western Kentucky
Jan. 04 Kennesaw St. 69.7% 80 74 30.3% Delaware
Jan. 04 UTEP 30.6% 70 76 69.4% FIU
Jan. 04 Jacksonville St. 11.9% 61 73 88.1% Liberty
Jan. 04 Louisiana Tech 21.8% 64 73 78.2% Western Kentucky
Jan. 04 Sam Houston St. 46.2% 76 77 53.8% Middle Tennessee
Jan. 04 New Mexico St. 58.4% 67 64 41.6% Missouri St.