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NCAA Tournament

Conference USA

Updated with games through Monday, March 17

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Conference USA		Current Record		Projected Record		Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
	Team	Conf.	Overall	Conf.	Overall	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th
1.	Liberty (65)	13 - 5	25 - 6	13.0 - 5.0	25.0 - 6.0	100.0
2.	Jacksonville St. (123)	12 - 6	19 - 12	12.0 - 6.0	19.0 - 12.0		100.0
3.	Middle Tennessee (108)	12 - 6	20 - 11	12.0 - 6.0	20.0 - 11.0			100.0
4.	Kennesaw St. (141)	10 - 8	16 - 14	10.0 - 8.0	16.0 - 14.0				100.0
5.	New Mexico St. (143)	10 - 8	14 - 15	10.0 - 8.0	14.0 - 15.0					100.0
6.	Louisiana Tech (120)	9 - 9	17 - 12	9.0 - 9.0	17.0 - 12.0						100.0
7.	Western Kentucky (167)	8 - 10	15 - 14	8.0 - 10.0	15.0 - 14.0							100.0
8.	UTEP (160)	7 - 11	14 - 15	7.0 - 11.0	14.0 - 15.0								100.0
9.	Sam Houston St. (156)	6 - 12	10 - 18	6.0 - 12.0	10.0 - 18.0									100.0
10.	FIU (248)	3 - 15	7 - 23	3.0 - 15.0	7.0 - 23.0										100.0
Weekly Changes
1.	Liberty (65)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
2.	Jacksonville St. (123)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
3.	Middle Tennessee (108)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
4.	Kennesaw St. (141)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
5.	New Mexico St. (143)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
6.	Louisiana Tech (120)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
7.	Western Kentucky (167)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
8.	UTEP (160)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
9.	Sam Houston St. (156)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
10.	FIU (248)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0

This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

			Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
	Team	Outright	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th
1.	Liberty	100.0	100.0
2.	Jacksonville St.	0.0		100.0
3.	Middle Tennessee	0.0		100.0
4.	Kennesaw St.	0.0				100.0
5.	New Mexico St.	0.0				100.0
6.	Louisiana Tech	0.0						100.0
7.	Western Kentucky	0.0							100.0
8.	UTEP	0.0								100.0
9.	Sam Houston St.	0.0									100.0
10.	FIU	0.0										100.0

This Week's Games

Date	Away	W Prob, Pred Score				Home
Mar. 18	Jacksonville St.	28.4%	67	73	71.6%	Georgia Tech
Mar. 18	Chattanooga	30.8%	74	79	69.2%	Middle Tennessee
Mar. 21	Liberty	31.9%	67	73	68.1%	Oregon