Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Horizon

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Horizon Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Oakland (123) 1 - 0 4 - 5 14.9 - 5.1 18.3 - 11.7 43.723.115.28.64.72.41.40.60.30.0
2. Wright St. (135) 1 - 1 3 - 5 13.8 - 6.2 17.6 - 11.4 22.825.320.413.18.45.22.71.30.70.10.0
3. Youngstown St. (157) 2 - 0 5 - 4 13.5 - 6.5 17.3 - 10.7 20.723.219.714.29.56.03.62.00.90.20.0
4. Robert Morris (200) 1 - 1 5 - 4 11.1 - 8.9 15.6 - 12.4 4.38.012.015.616.215.912.28.64.81.80.4
5. Milwaukee (213) 1 - 0 3 - 5 10.9 - 9.1 13.9 - 16.1 4.18.011.014.515.614.612.89.96.52.40.6
6. Fort Wayne (228) 1 - 1 3 - 6 10.3 - 9.7 12.3 - 15.7 1.85.58.812.814.815.315.312.48.13.81.3
7. Northern Kentucky (236) 1 - 1 5 - 3 9.7 - 10.3 14.7 - 13.3 1.53.96.410.012.714.916.816.411.05.01.5
8. Green Bay (242) 1 - 2 3 - 7 9.3 - 10.7 12.2 - 16.8 0.82.24.77.711.515.417.519.214.35.11.5
9. Detroit (306) 2 - 0 3 - 6 7.8 - 12.2 8.8 - 18.2 0.20.71.73.15.88.413.419.928.614.24.0
10. IUPUI (327) 0 - 3 2 - 9 4.6 - 15.4 6.6 - 22.4 0.00.00.20.40.92.35.313.636.240.9
11. Cleveland St. (338) 0 - 2 1 - 8 4.3 - 15.7 5.3 - 22.7 0.00.00.10.41.02.04.411.131.249.8
Weekly Changes
1. Oakland (123) -11.1+2.1+4.1+2.7+1.2+0.3+0.4+0.3+0.1-0.0-0.0
2. Wright St. (135) +9.1+5.4+1.7-1.9-3.0-2.8-3.0-3.2-1.3-0.7-0.3
3. Youngstown St. (157) +9.4+4.9+2.4-0.3-2.6-4.0-3.7-2.8-1.7-1.1-0.3
4. Robert Morris (200) -2.9-3.2-1.3+0.9+1.8+3.1+1.7+1.0+0.0-0.5-0.7
5. Milwaukee (213) -0.4-2.2-0.1+1.6+2.2+0.9+1.1-0.4-0.3-1.6-1.0
6. Fort Wayne (228) +0.1+0.2+1.0+2.9+2.4+1.9+1.1-1.3-1.9-3.8-2.7
7. Northern Kentucky (236) -3.0-4.4-4.6-3.5-0.5+1.7+4.0+5.8+3.8+0.9-0.3
8. Green Bay (242) -1.0-2.3-2.4-1.5-0.4+1.3+2.3+5.2+3.1-2.1-2.2
9. Detroit (306) -0.0-0.0+0.3+0.5+1.7+2.1+3.5+5.8+7.4-8.2-12.9
10. IUPUI (327) -0.1-0.3-0.6-0.7-1.5-2.3-3.4-4.2-3.1+9.9+6.0
11. Cleveland St. (338) -0.1-0.3-0.5-0.7-1.5-2.3-4.0-6.2-6.2+7.3+14.5


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Oakland 37.750.522.213.66.63.81.61.00.40.2
2. Wright St. 18.429.026.719.011.36.93.91.90.90.40.00.0
3. Youngstown St. 15.725.125.019.613.27.74.82.61.30.50.10.0
4. Robert Morris 2.85.810.114.016.416.814.210.67.13.71.10.3
5. Milwaukee 2.95.510.012.415.416.014.111.08.65.11.60.3
6. Fort Wayne 1.33.17.210.613.915.314.914.110.76.82.60.8
7. Northern Kentucky 0.92.24.87.811.714.015.615.914.59.13.60.9
8. Green Bay 0.51.23.26.410.012.616.217.616.411.83.80.9
9. Detroit 0.20.41.12.44.37.010.115.019.726.111.32.7
10. IUPUI 0.00.00.10.30.61.23.26.816.236.934.6
11. Cleveland St. 0.00.00.10.20.61.42.55.813.933.142.5






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 13 Northern Kentucky 48.7% 75 76 51.3% Bellarmine
Dec. 13 Wright St. 38.2% 73 76 61.8% Marshall
Dec. 13 Oakland 28.2% 70 76 71.8% Northern Iowa
Dec. 13 Toledo 46.1% 78 79 53.9% Robert Morris
Dec. 14 Detroit 20.8% 74 84 79.2% Fort Wayne
Dec. 14 Indiana St. 41.2% 78 81 58.8% Milwaukee
Dec. 16 Miami OH 41.2% 76 78 58.8% Wright St.
Dec. 17 Cleveland St. 3.9% 66 89 96.1% UAB
Dec. 17 UC Santa Barbara 51.2% 75 74 48.8% Green Bay
Dec. 17 Oakland 63.5% 84 80 36.5% Northern Kentucky
Dec. 17 Youngstown St. 46.3% 71 72 53.7% Robert Morris