Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Horizon

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Horizon Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Oakland (121) 8 - 3 11 - 10 15.1 - 4.9 18.1 - 11.9 42.048.57.11.80.40.10.0
2. Wright St. (140) 8 - 2 11 - 8 14.9 - 5.1 17.9 - 11.1 54.135.07.22.21.10.30.1
3. Fort Wayne (225) 7 - 3 10 - 8 11.3 - 7.7 14.3 - 12.7 2.37.628.223.218.412.16.51.40.20.0
4. Green Bay (227) 7 - 4 10 - 10 11.6 - 8.4 14.6 - 14.4 0.94.327.424.818.812.97.02.81.10.1
5. Northern Kentucky (193) 6 - 5 11 - 8 11.2 - 8.8 16.2 - 11.8 0.53.019.323.922.616.310.13.40.80.10.0
6. Robert Morris (199) 5 - 6 11 - 9 10.2 - 9.8 16.2 - 12.8 0.11.26.913.620.125.121.48.22.70.80.1
7. Milwaukee (223) 5 - 6 8 - 13 9.9 - 10.1 12.9 - 17.1 0.00.33.58.514.222.729.615.05.10.80.1
8. Youngstown St. (218) 3 - 8 7 - 12 7.7 - 12.3 11.7 - 16.3 0.00.21.12.85.612.431.231.512.42.8
9. Detroit (290) 5 - 6 6 - 12 7.7 - 12.3 8.7 - 18.3 0.20.81.74.511.733.339.28.00.7
10. Cleveland St. (320) 3 - 7 4 - 14 5.4 - 14.6 6.4 - 21.6 0.10.10.41.03.713.646.434.7
11. IUPUI (312) 2 - 9 4 - 16 4.2 - 14.8 6.2 - 21.8 0.00.00.11.15.931.461.6
Weekly Changes
1. Oakland (121) -0.3-5.4+4.0+1.4+0.3+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Wright St. (140) -2.3-2.8+3.0+1.0+0.7+0.2+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
3. Fort Wayne (225) +1.8+4.7+3.0+1.5-0.3-2.9-3.2-3.3-1.3-0.1+0.0
4. Green Bay (227) +0.7+3.1+5.0+5.0+0.8-2.7-4.8-4.6-2.5+0.0+0.0
5. Northern Kentucky (193) +0.0+0.1-6.0-0.8+2.6+2.9+1.8-0.4-0.3+0.1+0.0
6. Robert Morris (199) -0.1+0.1-7.3-4.2+0.9+6.3+5.5-0.5-1.3+0.4+0.1
7. Milwaukee (223) +0.0+0.2-0.0+0.5+1.6+5.1+8.6-4.6-11.4+0.1+0.1
8. Youngstown St. (218) +0.0-0.0-1.0-2.2-2.9-4.3-3.9+5.7-2.1+8.3+2.4
9. Detroit (290) +0.0-0.0-0.7-2.2-3.7-4.9-5.1+3.7+4.9+7.2+0.7
10. Cleveland St. (320) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.3+0.9+3.0+9.1-13.0-0.5
11. IUPUI (312) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+1.0+4.9-3.1-2.8


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Oakland 41.562.232.04.51.10.20.10.0
2. Wright St. 33.854.335.67.31.80.80.20.1
3. Fort Wayne 2.32.37.628.223.218.412.16.51.40.2
4. Green Bay 0.62.37.829.226.418.29.84.81.20.20.0
5. Northern Kentucky 0.31.55.523.526.120.912.67.61.90.40.0
6. Robert Morris 0.00.21.58.215.722.025.219.06.11.70.30.0
7. Milwaukee 0.00.11.16.313.518.922.923.59.93.10.50.0
8. Youngstown St. 0.00.00.31.43.77.915.335.925.77.72.0
9. Detroit 0.00.00.41.43.27.414.833.331.67.20.7
10. Cleveland St. 0.00.10.20.51.76.817.439.633.7
11. IUPUI 0.00.00.00.11.15.931.461.6






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 28 Oakland 62.6% 87 83 37.4% Fort Wayne
Jan. 28 IUPUI 13.9% 78 91 86.1% Robert Morris
Jan. 30 Cleveland St. 16.1% 72 83 83.9% Green Bay
Jan. 30 Northern Kentucky 58.9% 82 79 41.1% Detroit
Jan. 30 IUPUI 16.0% 77 90 84.0% Youngstown St.
Jan. 30 Wright St. 56.2% 76 74 43.8% Milwaukee
Jan. 31 Robert Morris 41.5% 74 77 58.5% Fort Wayne
Feb. 01 Cleveland St. 15.8% 75 87 84.2% Milwaukee
Feb. 01 Wright St. 56.9% 73 71 43.1% Green Bay
Feb. 01 Northern Kentucky 19.7% 81 91 80.3% Oakland