Horizon
Updated with games through Thursday, November 21
Conference Projections
Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the
Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.
| Horizon |
Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Conf. |
Overall |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th |
| 1. |
Fort Wayne (105) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
14.9 - 5.1 |
19.3 - 8.7 |
47.6 | 20.6 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2. |
Wright St. (161) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
12.5 - 7.5 |
16.8 - 11.2 |
14.5 | 18.5 | 16.3 | 13.8 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 3. |
Milwaukee (179) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
11.8 - 8.2 |
15.8 - 13.2 |
9.7 | 13.8 | 15.0 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| 4. |
Northern Kentucky (181) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 4 |
11.7 - 8.3 |
14.6 - 14.4 |
9.6 | 13.8 | 14.7 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| 5. |
Youngstown St. (190) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
11.4 - 8.6 |
16.3 - 12.7 |
8.0 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 0.6 |
| 6. |
Green Bay (229) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 3 |
10.3 - 9.7 |
13.9 - 16.1 |
4.2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 1.7 |
| 7. |
Oakland (231) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 4 |
10.2 - 9.8 |
10.9 - 17.1 |
3.7 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 12.1 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 1.7 |
| 8. |
Robert Morris (263) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 2 |
9.1 - 10.9 |
15.2 - 14.8 |
1.8 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 14.4 | 15.0 | 14.4 | 11.5 | 3.9 |
| 9. |
Cleveland St. (304) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 3 |
7.5 - 12.5 |
11.2 - 16.8 |
0.4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 14.9 | 20.6 | 21.9 | 9.8 |
| 10. |
Detroit (318) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
7.1 - 12.9 |
10.2 - 19.8 |
0.4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 9.8 | 14.2 | 20.3 | 26.0 | 11.8 |
| 11. |
IUPUI (361) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 3 |
3.5 - 16.5 |
5.0 - 23.0 |
| | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 7.1 | 18.8 | 69.0 |
This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.
|
Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Outright |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th |
| 1. |
Fort Wayne |
41.8 | 53.7 | 20.1 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2. |
Wright St. |
11.7 | 18.0 | 20.7 | 16.8 | 13.3 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 3. |
Milwaukee |
7.8 | 12.6 | 15.7 | 16.3 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 4. |
Northern Kentucky |
7.3 | 12.4 | 15.9 | 15.7 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 5. |
Youngstown St. |
6.1 | 10.4 | 14.4 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 12.6 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 6. |
Green Bay |
3.1 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 1.1 |
| 7. |
Oakland |
2.6 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.3 |
| 8. |
Robert Morris |
1.2 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 14.2 | 14.0 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 2.8 |
| 9. |
Cleveland St. |
0.2 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 15.6 | 19.9 | 19.4 | 7.5 |
| 10. |
Detroit |
0.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 15.2 | 20.0 | 23.1 | 9.0 |
| 11. |
IUPUI |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 8.6 | 21.3 | 63.3 |
