Ivy League
Updated with games through Thursday, December 11
Conference Projections
Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the
Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.
| Ivy League |
Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Conf. |
Overall |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
| 1. |
Yale (66) |
0 - 0 |
9 - 1 |
11.6 - 2.4 |
21.5 - 4.5 |
72.0 | 19.5 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2. |
Columbia (125) |
0 - 0 |
8 - 2 |
9.2 - 4.8 |
18.2 - 7.8 |
14.9 | 37.2 | 24.3 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 3. |
Cornell (140) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 5 |
8.6 - 5.4 |
13.4 - 11.6 |
10.1 | 27.1 | 29.0 | 15.8 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 4. |
Harvard (217) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 6 |
6.1 - 7.9 |
11.1 - 15.9 |
1.1 | 5.3 | 12.8 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 17.3 | 14.7 | 10.4 |
| 5. |
Brown (221) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 7 |
6.0 - 8.0 |
10.1 - 15.9 |
1.0 | 4.8 | 11.7 | 18.5 | 19.5 | 18.1 | 15.7 | 10.7 |
| 6. |
Penn (263) |
0 - 0 |
5 - 4 |
5.1 - 8.9 |
11.2 - 14.8 |
0.3 | 2.5 | 6.4 | 12.7 | 17.3 | 19.9 | 21.1 | 19.8 |
| 7. |
Dartmouth (265) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 5 |
5.1 - 8.9 |
8.7 - 16.3 |
0.4 | 2.8 | 6.7 | 12.0 | 16.7 | 19.3 | 20.8 | 21.3 |
| 8. |
Princeton (289) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 10 |
4.3 - 9.7 |
6.9 - 21.1 |
0.1 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 17.1 | 23.7 | 36.1 |
Weekly Changes |
| 1. |
Yale (66) |
|
-5.1 | +3.2 | +1.1 | +0.7 | +0.1 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2. |
Columbia (125) |
|
+4.5 | +4.7 | -3.4 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.0 | -0.6 | -0.4 |
| 3. |
Cornell (140) |
|
+0.2 | -5.4 | +2.4 | +1.1 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| 4. |
Harvard (217) |
|
-0.2 | -2.0 | -2.4 | -1.9 | +0.1 | +1.3 | +2.7 | +2.4 |
| 5. |
Brown (221) |
|
+0.5 | +1.0 | +3.9 | +3.2 | +1.4 | -1.0 | -3.1 | -6.0 |
| 6. |
Penn (263) |
|
-0.0 | -1.4 | -2.1 | -2.0 | -0.5 | +0.5 | +1.6 | +3.8 |
| 7. |
Dartmouth (265) |
|
+0.3 | +1.5 | +3.2 | +4.3 | +4.5 | +1.4 | -3.1 | -12.1 |
| 8. |
Princeton (289) |
|
-0.2 | -1.6 | -2.7 | -3.5 | -4.2 | -2.2 | +2.2 | +12.0 |
This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.
|
Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Outright |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th |
| 1. |
Yale |
64.3 | 78.4 | 15.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | | |
| 2. |
Columbia |
11.0 | 20.3 | 39.8 | 21.9 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3. |
Cornell |
7.2 | 14.3 | 30.5 | 28.2 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4. |
Harvard |
0.8 | 1.8 | 7.5 | 15.3 | 21.0 | 19.7 | 15.4 | 11.6 | 7.6 |
| 5. |
Brown |
0.5 | 1.7 | 7.1 | 15.0 | 19.8 | 19.9 | 16.7 | 12.3 | 7.6 |
| 6. |
Penn |
0.2 | 0.6 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 14.7 | 18.9 | 19.4 | 18.6 | 15.6 |
| 7. |
Dartmouth |
0.2 | 0.6 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 14.2 | 18.7 | 18.9 | 18.6 | 16.2 |
| 8. |
Princeton |
0.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 9.8 | 13.9 | 18.5 | 23.1 | 28.6 |
