Metro Atlantic
Updated with games through Thursday, November 21
Conference Projections
Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the
Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.
| Metro Atlantic |
Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Conf. |
Overall |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th |
| 1. |
Quinnipiac (187) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
13.4 - 6.6 |
18.4 - 11.6 |
28.4 | 18.5 | 13.6 | 10.6 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2. |
Saint Peter's (213) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 3 |
12.8 - 7.2 |
15.4 - 11.6 |
21.1 | 17.4 | 13.6 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3. |
Marist (264) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
11.3 - 8.7 |
17.4 - 11.6 |
10.1 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| 4. |
Merrimack (265) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 3 |
11.3 - 8.7 |
14.0 - 17.0 |
9.2 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| 5. |
Rider (256) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 2 |
11.2 - 8.8 |
16.5 - 14.5 |
9.8 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 6. |
Mount St. Mary's (277) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
10.4 - 9.6 |
14.8 - 15.2 |
6.2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 3.4 |
| 7. |
Fairfield (298) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 3 |
9.6 - 10.4 |
12.8 - 17.2 |
3.4 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.6 |
| 8. |
Iona (308) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 4 |
9.4 - 10.6 |
12.6 - 18.4 |
3.3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 |
| 9. |
Siena (313) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 2 |
9.4 - 10.6 |
14.1 - 15.9 |
2.9 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 |
| 10. |
Manhattan (324) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
9.0 - 11.0 |
11.9 - 16.1 |
2.7 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 8.4 |
| 11. |
Sacred Heart (327) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 5 |
8.5 - 11.5 |
11.5 - 18.5 |
1.8 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 10.1 |
| 12. |
Niagara (337) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 4 |
8.1 - 11.9 |
10.7 - 19.3 |
1.0 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 14.5 | 12.2 |
| 13. |
Canisius (357) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 6 |
5.5 - 14.5 |
6.2 - 24.8 |
0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 19.3 | 43.7 |
This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.
|
Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Outright |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th |
| 1. |
Quinnipiac |
23.9 | 34.0 | 19.4 | 13.0 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2. |
Saint Peter's |
17.0 | 25.7 | 18.7 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3. |
Marist |
7.4 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 12.1 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 4. |
Merrimack |
7.1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 5. |
Rider |
7.6 | 12.7 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 6. |
Mount St. Mary's |
4.7 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.5 |
| 7. |
Fairfield |
2.4 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.5 |
| 8. |
Iona |
2.3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 |
| 9. |
Siena |
2.1 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 4.5 |
| 10. |
Manhattan |
1.9 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 |
| 11. |
Sacred Heart |
1.3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 7.8 |
| 12. |
Niagara |
0.7 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 12.5 | 9.9 |
| 13. |
Canisius |
0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 12.7 | 19.6 | 37.7 |
