Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Metro Atlantic

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Metro Atlantic Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
1. Siena (163) 2 - 0 9 - 2 15.2 - 4.8 22.7 - 8.3 32.423.918.213.66.03.31.40.80.20.20.00.0
2. Quinnipiac (183) 2 - 0 6 - 3 14.9 - 5.1 20.4 - 9.6 25.425.321.614.16.93.61.71.00.30.20.10.0
3. Marist (169) 2 - 0 5 - 2 14.8 - 5.2 19.5 - 8.5 26.122.719.715.88.43.92.10.90.30.10.0
4. Iona (179) 1 - 1 8 - 3 14.3 - 5.7 21.8 - 9.2 13.520.823.922.410.44.82.21.00.60.20.10.1
5. Sacred Heart (294) 1 - 1 2 - 6 10.6 - 9.4 13.3 - 16.7 0.72.14.99.618.318.316.112.28.85.02.51.10.4
6. Merrimack (300) 2 - 0 6 - 6 10.1 - 9.9 14.3 - 16.7 0.81.94.48.715.216.815.413.610.26.93.81.80.6
7. Manhattan (311) 1 - 1 3 - 6 9.9 - 10.1 13.0 - 17.0 0.71.73.56.713.315.716.314.311.67.84.72.60.8
8. Fairfield (296) 0 - 2 5 - 5 9.2 - 10.8 15.0 - 15.0 0.30.82.14.59.714.015.816.915.010.76.32.81.2
9. Saint Peter's (325) 2 - 0 4 - 4 8.5 - 11.5 10.6 - 16.4 0.10.61.13.17.010.212.415.417.716.59.74.91.2
10. Mount St. Mary's (336) 0 - 2 2 - 8 7.6 - 12.4 10.2 - 19.8 0.10.10.51.33.66.610.412.916.017.914.39.96.4
11. Rider (354) 0 - 2 0 - 8 5.3 - 14.7 5.4 - 22.6 0.00.00.20.51.12.74.88.213.821.925.721.2
12. Niagara (357) 0 - 2 2 - 7 5.0 - 15.0 7.4 - 21.6 0.00.10.41.22.03.56.011.419.625.430.6
13. Canisius (360) 0 - 2 3 - 6 4.6 - 15.4 7.8 - 22.2 0.00.10.30.71.42.55.19.317.125.837.7
Weekly Changes
1. Siena (163) +10.1+4.1-1.0-1.2-4.4-2.7-2.1-1.4-0.8-0.2-0.3-0.1-0.0
2. Quinnipiac (183) +12.3+7.4+2.6-3.4-6.2-5.2-3.4-1.9-1.3-0.6-0.2-0.1-0.0
3. Marist (169) +0.3+1.3+2.1+1.9-0.8-1.9-0.9-1.0-0.5-0.3-0.2-0.1+0.0
4. Iona (179) -17.8-4.0+6.3+10.7+3.6+0.7+0.4+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0
5. Sacred Heart (294) -2.8-4.5-5.0-4.7+1.1+3.0+3.5+3.4+3.5+1.7+0.7+0.2-0.1
6. Merrimack (300) -0.3-0.5+0.2+1.6+5.4+3.7+0.2-0.8-1.1-2.1-2.7-2.1-1.5
7. Manhattan (311) -0.5-1.2-1.6-0.9+2.2+2.0+2.4+1.1+0.6-0.2-1.3-1.3-1.4
8. Fairfield (296) -1.2-2.4-3.4-4.5-2.9-1.4+0.7+3.9+5.2+3.9+2.1+0.1-0.1
9. Saint Peter's (325) +0.1+0.3+0.5+1.8+3.9+4.8+3.9+4.2+3.8+1.1-5.6-9.5-9.3
10. Mount St. Mary's (336) +0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+1.0+1.6+2.3+0.8+1.6+2.5-0.6-3.3-6.0
11. Rider (354) +0.0-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.7-1.2-1.5-2.0-3.5-0.9+3.6+4.4+2.0
12. Niagara (357) -0.0-0.2-0.5-0.9-1.9-2.6-4.0-4.6-5.3-3.4+2.7+7.6+13.1
13. Canisius (360) -0.0-0.0-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.8-1.6-2.1-2.1-1.8+1.8+4.0+3.3


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
1. Siena 25.438.423.916.911.85.02.40.90.40.10.00.1
2. Quinnipiac 19.231.726.019.512.45.52.61.20.70.30.10.00.0
3. Marist 20.131.422.619.514.16.73.41.40.60.20.1
4. Iona 11.221.324.522.418.27.53.61.30.60.40.10.10.0
5. Sacred Heart 0.51.43.46.912.020.318.513.910.17.23.81.60.60.2
6. Merrimack 0.51.22.65.29.716.217.115.712.99.45.92.81.00.3
7. Manhattan 0.41.02.34.68.115.816.717.313.19.66.23.31.50.4
8. Fairfield 0.20.41.12.96.012.115.916.516.512.68.64.61.90.9
9. Saint Peter's 0.10.30.71.84.28.911.314.215.416.514.18.23.60.9
10. Mount St. Mary's 0.00.10.20.81.95.18.811.813.916.416.712.47.64.2
11. Rider 0.00.00.10.20.71.83.65.810.014.722.223.517.3
12. Niagara 0.00.00.10.71.62.74.77.813.520.724.124.1
13. Canisius 0.00.00.00.10.41.02.03.56.911.419.425.130.3






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 13 Marist 63.7% 64 60 36.3% Bryant
Dec. 13 Canisius 13.9% 56 67 86.1% Maine
Dec. 13 Manhattan 20.4% 70 79 79.6% Fordham
Dec. 13 Saint Peter's 5.8% 61 79 94.2% Georgetown
Dec. 13 Iona 2.7% 65 92 97.3% St. John's
Dec. 13 Mount St. Mary's 39.2% 73 76 60.8% Loyola MD
Dec. 13 UMass Lowell 11.6% 73 89 88.4% Quinnipiac
Dec. 13 Niagara 44.0% 72 74 56.0% Morgan St.
Dec. 13 Sacred Heart 53.7% 77 76 46.3% NJIT
Dec. 14 Monmouth 54.5% 75 74 45.5% Fairfield
Dec. 14 Merrimack 18.0% 64 74 82.0% Vermont
Dec. 15 Niagara 0.9% 54 86 99.1% VCU
Dec. 16 Canisius 2.3% 56 81 97.7% Rhode Island
Dec. 16 Rider 9.8% 61 76 90.2% Delaware
Dec. 16 Marist 31.6% 60 66 68.4% Georgia Tech
Dec. 16 Sacred Heart 45.7% 82 83 54.3% UMass Lowell
Dec. 17 Quinnipiac 39.6% 75 78 60.4% Monmouth
Dec. 17 Siena 43.9% 68 70 56.1% Vermont
Dec. 18 Fairfield 26.2% 67 74 73.8% Central Connecticut
Dec. 18 Furman 67.5% 81 76 32.5% Manhattan