Mid-American
Updated with games through Thursday, November 21
Conference Projections
Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the
Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.
| Mid-American |
Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Conf. |
Overall |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th |
| 1. |
Toledo (112) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
13.1 - 4.9 |
19.2 - 8.8 |
33.9 | 22.9 | 16.2 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2. |
Kent St. (128) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
12.4 - 5.6 |
18.4 - 9.6 |
25.0 | 21.8 | 17.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 3. |
Ohio (126) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 4 |
12.3 - 5.7 |
17.0 - 11.0 |
23.7 | 22.2 | 17.7 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4. |
Central Michigan (225) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
10.0 - 8.0 |
12.8 - 13.2 |
4.5 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 13.7 | 14.3 | 12.1 | 10.5 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 5. |
Akron (203) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 2 |
9.9 - 8.1 |
13.7 - 13.3 |
5.7 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 6. |
Miami OH (239) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
9.4 - 8.6 |
13.7 - 13.3 |
4.2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 |
| 7. |
Ball St. (282) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 4 |
7.9 - 10.1 |
10.0 - 17.0 |
0.9 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 10.8 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 6.7 |
| 8. |
Northern Illinois (297) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 3 |
7.6 - 10.4 |
9.7 - 17.3 |
0.7 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 9.5 |
| 9. |
Bowling Green (300) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 3 |
7.3 - 10.7 |
10.3 - 16.7 |
0.7 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 12.8 | 11.5 |
| 10. |
Western Michigan (316) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 4 |
6.6 - 11.4 |
8.7 - 20.3 |
0.4 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 15.2 | 16.2 | 15.8 |
| 11. |
Eastern Michigan (323) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
5.9 - 12.1 |
10.1 - 18.9 |
0.2 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 15.6 | 19.0 | 22.3 |
| 12. |
Buffalo (338) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 3 |
5.7 - 12.3 |
8.1 - 19.9 |
0.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 14.4 | 19.2 | 27.8 |
This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.
|
Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Outright |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th |
| 1. |
Toledo |
28.3 | 40.4 | 23.1 | 14.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2. |
Kent St. |
19.8 | 30.4 | 22.7 | 16.6 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3. |
Ohio |
18.8 | 29.4 | 22.9 | 16.5 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4. |
Central Michigan |
3.4 | 7.0 | 11.8 | 13.9 | 14.2 | 13.8 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 5. |
Akron |
4.0 | 7.7 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 14.0 | 13.3 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 6. |
Miami OH |
2.9 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 12.6 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| 7. |
Ball St. |
0.6 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 5.2 |
| 8. |
Northern Illinois |
0.4 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 7.0 |
| 9. |
Bowling Green |
0.4 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 10.6 | 8.5 |
| 10. |
Western Michigan |
0.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 14.1 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 12.6 |
| 11. |
Eastern Michigan |
0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 15.9 | 17.3 | 18.2 |
| 12. |
Buffalo |
0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 14.9 | 18.3 | 21.8 |
