Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Mid-American

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Mid-American Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
1. Akron (60) 0 - 0 7 - 2 15.3 - 2.7 23.0 - 5.0 71.117.36.62.81.30.50.20.10.0
2. Miami OH (117) 0 - 0 7 - 0 11.7 - 5.3 19.7 - 6.3 10.024.319.914.510.68.45.83.21.91.00.30.1
3. Bowling Green (141) 0 - 0 5 - 3 11.3 - 6.7 17.3 - 9.7 7.116.416.914.412.010.58.46.24.22.31.00.30.1
4. Toledo (158) 0 - 0 4 - 4 10.4 - 6.6 14.9 - 12.1 3.513.315.415.813.512.310.17.35.12.31.10.30.1
5. Kent St. (161) 0 - 0 7 - 1 10.5 - 7.5 18.1 - 9.9 3.79.412.813.914.512.410.99.96.33.61.70.70.2
6. Ohio (184) 0 - 0 3 - 6 9.8 - 8.2 13.2 - 14.8 1.97.39.111.012.712.812.811.49.86.13.21.40.4
7. Massachusetts (186) 0 - 0 7 - 3 9.5 - 8.5 16.8 - 12.2 1.45.78.410.311.913.012.512.510.47.84.01.60.5
8. Buffalo (204) 0 - 0 8 - 1 9.0 - 9.0 17.5 - 10.5 0.73.45.68.310.912.414.014.412.59.74.92.50.8
9. Eastern Michigan (212) 0 - 0 5 - 5 8.5 - 9.5 13.8 - 15.2 0.62.54.46.78.810.913.014.615.111.66.93.81.1
10. Western Michigan (283) 0 - 0 5 - 4 6.5 - 11.5 11.5 - 16.5 0.00.40.61.72.84.47.310.616.020.018.211.86.1
11. Central Michigan (330) 0 - 0 2 - 6 4.9 - 13.1 7.1 - 20.9 0.00.10.20.51.02.24.48.014.021.524.823.2
12. Ball St. (339) 0 - 0 2 - 7 4.4 - 13.6 6.6 - 21.4 0.00.10.10.40.81.53.05.911.919.826.729.8
13. Northern Illinois (348) 0 - 0 2 - 6 4.1 - 13.9 6.1 - 20.9 0.00.10.10.51.22.34.89.917.325.937.7
Weekly Changes
1. Akron (60) -2.8+0.7+1.1+0.7+0.3+0.0-0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Miami OH (117) +5.3+8.7+3.0-0.4-2.6-1.9-3.4-3.3-2.3-1.8-0.8-0.2-0.1
3. Bowling Green (141) -1.3-3.0+0.7+0.7+0.5+0.8+0.7+0.2+0.5+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.0
4. Toledo (158) +1.4+2.8+2.3+1.9-0.1-0.1-1.2-2.1-1.4-1.7-0.9-0.5-0.2
5. Kent St. (161) -1.4-5.2-1.6-0.8+1.2+0.6+2.4+2.2+1.2+1.0+0.4+0.0+0.0
6. Ohio (184) -0.1+0.4-0.6+0.5+0.9+0.7+0.7-0.3-0.4-0.9-0.6-0.4-0.2
7. Massachusetts (186) -0.4-1.5-1.7-0.8+0.6+0.9+0.7+0.8+1.1+1.1-0.2-0.4-0.2
8. Buffalo (204) -0.3-0.8-0.6-0.1+0.6+0.4+0.1+1.2-0.1+0.7-0.7-0.0-0.4
9. Eastern Michigan (212) -0.5-2.2-2.4-1.7-1.4-0.8+0.1+1.1+2.6+3.0+1.5+0.7+0.0
10. Western Michigan (283) +0.0+0.2+0.2+0.6+1.0+1.0+2.0+2.5+2.7+2.2-1.2-5.9-5.3
11. Central Michigan (330) -0.0-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-1.4-1.4-1.4-2.5-2.6+1.7+4.1+4.7
12. Ball St. (339) -0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.4+0.6+1.3+1.9+2.1-6.6
13. Northern Illinois (348) +0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.8-1.3-2.1-2.6-1.3+0.8+8.2


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
1. Akron 68.275.815.45.32.30.70.40.00.10.0
2. Miami OH 9.910.425.719.913.910.48.05.43.01.91.00.30.1
3. Bowling Green 4.78.517.918.015.211.910.07.35.43.21.80.70.20.0
4. Toledo 3.13.614.215.515.413.112.210.17.15.12.31.10.30.1
5. Kent St. 2.54.710.814.315.514.512.210.88.34.72.71.10.40.1
6. Ohio 1.12.68.210.712.613.813.012.410.88.14.72.10.70.2
7. Massachusetts 0.92.16.69.611.512.813.512.612.18.86.22.91.10.3
8. Buffalo 0.40.94.26.69.611.913.514.413.511.77.93.51.80.5
9. Eastern Michigan 0.40.83.05.27.710.611.713.914.813.410.15.62.50.7
10. Western Michigan 0.00.10.40.92.23.55.68.411.816.520.416.39.54.4
11. Central Michigan 0.00.10.10.30.91.53.15.810.116.221.622.717.6
12. Ball St. 0.00.00.10.30.51.12.24.27.713.721.225.323.6
13. Northern Illinois 0.00.00.20.30.81.73.16.111.919.425.730.9






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 13 Murray St. 30.0% 84 91 70.0% Akron
Dec. 13 Central Michigan 13.7% 67 79 86.3% Stony Brook
Dec. 13 Miami OH 65.2% 83 79 34.8% Eastern Kentucky
Dec. 13 Northern Illinois 7.5% 71 89 92.5% Elon
Dec. 13 Massachusetts 22.5% 74 84 77.5% Florida St.
Dec. 13 St. Bonaventure 69.8% 80 74 30.2% Ohio
Dec. 13 Toledo 46.1% 78 79 53.9% Robert Morris
Dec. 14 Ball St. 15.9% 65 76 84.1% Campbell
Dec. 14 Buffalo 56.7% 77 75 43.3% East Carolina
Dec. 14 Western Michigan 2.1% 62 87 97.9% Iowa
Dec. 14 Kent St. 49.8% 80 81 50.2% Portland
Dec. 16 Chicago St. 6.3% 64 83 93.7% Bowling Green
Dec. 16 Miami OH 41.2% 76 78 58.8% Wright St.
Dec. 16 Toledo 2.9% 63 87 97.1% Michigan St.