Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Mid-American

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Mid-American Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
1. Miami OH (94) 9 - 0 18 - 0 15.1 - 1.9 24.1 - 1.9 43.554.41.90.10.0
2. Akron (66) 8 - 1 15 - 4 15.8 - 2.2 22.8 - 5.2 56.041.32.60.10.0
3. Kent St. (172) 7 - 2 14 - 5 11.9 - 6.1 18.9 - 9.1 0.63.960.324.38.22.10.40.20.0
4. Toledo (169) 5 - 4 9 - 10 10.2 - 6.8 14.2 - 12.8 0.222.833.121.513.15.72.70.80.10.0
5. Bowling Green (144) 4 - 5 10 - 8 10.2 - 7.8 16.2 - 10.8 0.19.824.529.720.39.24.01.50.50.20.10.0
6. Buffalo (182) 4 - 5 12 - 7 9.2 - 8.8 17.2 - 10.8 0.01.910.819.720.620.016.37.92.10.50.20.0
7. Ohio (232) 5 - 5 9 - 11 8.5 - 9.5 12.5 - 15.5 0.00.44.010.019.628.023.58.44.21.50.40.0
8. Massachusetts (200) 4 - 6 12 - 9 8.2 - 9.8 16.2 - 12.8 0.22.28.218.322.522.315.86.72.90.80.2
9. Eastern Michigan (216) 3 - 6 8 - 12 6.8 - 11.2 11.8 - 17.2 0.10.82.24.59.018.431.616.59.65.02.4
10. Ball St. (305) 3 - 5 5 - 13 5.8 - 12.2 7.8 - 20.2 0.10.10.41.13.26.214.027.119.617.011.3
11. Northern Illinois (315) 3 - 6 5 - 13 5.2 - 12.8 7.2 - 19.8 0.10.10.31.33.08.620.529.622.913.7
12. Western Michigan (283) 2 - 7 7 - 12 4.7 - 13.3 9.7 - 18.3 0.00.20.52.27.413.020.326.130.3
13. Central Michigan (316) 2 - 7 4 - 15 4.4 - 13.6 6.4 - 21.6 0.10.00.21.13.99.215.927.542.1
Weekly Changes
1. Miami OH (94) -12.5+13.8-1.0-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Akron (66) +12.5-11.7-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
3. Kent St. (172) +0.4+2.0+34.0-1.0-10.8-10.5-7.8-4.0-1.6-0.5-0.2-0.0+0.0
4. Toledo (169) -0.0-0.4+6.7+9.9-3.5-0.9-2.9-5.2-2.9-0.7-0.1-0.0-0.0
5. Bowling Green (144) -0.3-3.5-31.6-2.0+15.4+12.6+5.3+2.3+1.1+0.4+0.2+0.1+0.0
6. Buffalo (182) +0.0-0.1-1.0+3.6+7.4+1.5+0.2-1.6-5.1-3.2-1.5-0.3-0.0
7. Ohio (232) -0.0-0.1-2.6-3.2-2.8-1.5+5.5+5.8-1.5+0.1+0.3+0.1-0.0
8. Massachusetts (200) +0.0+0.0+0.0+1.1+5.0+10.8+9.5+4.0-10.3-11.0-6.1-2.6-0.5
9. Eastern Michigan (216) -0.0-0.1-4.3-8.0-10.5-11.8-10.6-1.2+20.1+11.5+7.9+4.6+2.3
10. Ball St. (305) +0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.2+1.2+0.9+0.3+5.3-5.6-5.1+2.6
11. Northern Illinois (315) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.3+0.5+0.5+1.4+5.6-4.8-3.7
12. Western Michigan (283) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.4-1.0-2.1-3.1-8.5-5.6+4.7+16.4
13. Central Michigan (316) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.7+2.6+5.1+5.2+3.4-17.0


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
1. Miami OH 43.543.554.41.90.10.0
2. Akron 55.956.342.41.30.10.0
3. Kent St. 0.20.74.761.223.87.21.90.40.1
4. Toledo 0.00.622.533.021.413.15.72.70.80.10.0
5. Bowling Green 0.00.216.927.330.115.36.32.70.80.30.10.0
6. Buffalo 0.00.14.112.823.127.218.09.53.71.20.20.1
7. Ohio 0.00.01.86.714.323.226.018.86.22.30.60.1
8. Massachusetts 0.00.53.912.320.024.922.211.14.01.10.20.1
9. Eastern Michigan 0.00.21.13.46.811.519.829.616.37.32.91.0
10. Ball St. 0.00.10.10.82.35.210.420.825.417.211.95.9
11. Northern Illinois 0.00.10.10.72.15.614.524.126.318.58.1
12. Western Michigan 0.00.00.10.41.23.39.617.022.225.221.0
13. Central Michigan 0.00.10.10.62.17.114.020.025.031.0






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 30 Kent St. 11.5% 81 97 88.5% Akron
Jan. 31 Ball St. 11.2% 66 80 88.8% Toledo
Jan. 31 Bowling Green 76.3% 77 69 23.7% Central Michigan
Jan. 31 Ohio 24.3% 75 83 75.7% Buffalo
Jan. 31 Eastern Michigan 32.4% 71 76 67.6% Massachusetts
Jan. 31 Northern Illinois 4.3% 68 90 95.7% Miami OH
Feb. 03 Akron 77.2% 84 75 22.8% Eastern Michigan
Feb. 03 Ball St. 9.0% 61 76 91.0% Bowling Green
Feb. 03 Miami OH 60.7% 85 82 39.3% Buffalo
Feb. 03 Central Michigan 13.5% 70 83 86.5% Massachusetts
Feb. 03 Kent St. 34.7% 82 87 65.3% Toledo
Feb. 03 Western Michigan 25.5% 74 82 74.5% Ohio