Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Missouri Valley

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Missouri Valley Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Belmont (74) 0 - 0 8 - 1 14.0 - 6.0 22.5 - 7.5 35.022.115.210.77.14.32.91.60.60.20.1
2. Illinois St. (81) 0 - 0 7 - 2 13.5 - 6.5 20.8 - 9.2 25.722.116.512.89.16.04.32.01.00.40.1
3. Northern Iowa (98) 0 - 0 6 - 2 12.2 - 7.8 19.1 - 10.9 12.816.215.715.012.810.77.45.22.81.10.3
4. Southern Illinois (107) 0 - 0 5 - 4 11.6 - 8.4 17.0 - 13.0 9.312.214.114.914.212.69.96.63.91.80.6
5. Murray St. (111) 0 - 0 7 - 3 11.3 - 8.7 18.6 - 12.4 8.111.212.713.914.213.410.97.54.62.50.9
6. Drake (129) 0 - 0 4 - 4 10.5 - 9.5 15.2 - 13.8 4.27.110.911.614.115.213.210.67.64.21.5
7. Bradley (132) 0 - 0 6 - 4 10.3 - 9.7 16.3 - 13.7 3.96.39.411.913.314.914.311.78.04.32.0
8. Illinois Chicago (173) 0 - 0 3 - 5 7.9 - 12.1 11.3 - 17.7 0.51.32.84.26.29.213.618.318.615.310.0
9. Indiana St. (182) 0 - 0 4 - 4 7.5 - 12.5 12.0 - 17.0 0.51.12.03.45.88.112.117.719.217.812.2
10. Valparaiso (238) 0 - 0 5 - 3 5.9 - 14.1 11.3 - 18.7 0.00.30.51.12.03.46.610.818.427.529.5
11. Evansville (264) 0 - 0 2 - 6 5.2 - 14.8 7.2 - 21.8 0.00.10.30.51.12.14.88.115.324.942.7
Weekly Changes
1. Belmont (74) +10.3+4.0-0.3-1.9-3.1-3.3-2.3-1.4-1.3-0.5-0.2
2. Illinois St. (81) +4.7+3.5+0.4-0.6-1.5-1.9-1.3-1.7-0.8-0.6-0.1
3. Northern Iowa (98) -8.1-2.9+0.4+1.8+1.9+2.6+1.7+1.5+0.7+0.3+0.1
4. Southern Illinois (107) +3.8+4.3+4.2+3.1+1.6-1.2-3.3-4.3-3.7-3.1-1.4
5. Murray St. (111) -4.8-3.4-1.6-0.4+1.9+2.7+2.5+1.4+0.7+0.8+0.2
6. Drake (129) -4.0-3.6-1.3-1.6+0.1+2.6+1.5+2.6+2.0+1.2+0.4
7. Bradley (132) -1.4-0.7-0.8+0.6-0.0+0.6+1.5+0.6+0.1-0.7+0.2
8. Illinois Chicago (173) -0.4-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.8-0.5+0.7+0.8+1.0+0.3+0.5
9. Indiana St. (182) -0.1-0.3+0.0+0.1+0.4+0.2+0.1+1.3-0.2-1.1-0.5
10. Valparaiso (238) -0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.7-1.7-2.0-1.9-0.9+2.4+6.2
11. Evansville (264) -0.0-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.1+0.9+1.0+2.2+1.0-5.4


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Belmont 29.141.522.214.09.15.93.62.11.00.40.20.0
2. Illinois St. 21.032.022.616.011.27.64.93.31.50.70.20.1
3. Northern Iowa 10.016.718.116.614.811.89.06.34.11.80.80.2
4. Southern Illinois 6.712.214.115.615.313.710.98.65.42.81.10.4
5. Murray St. 5.810.613.114.014.414.112.69.06.33.51.70.7
6. Drake 2.95.88.912.513.113.914.212.49.16.03.11.0
7. Bradley 2.65.57.811.312.913.614.113.510.36.33.31.3
8. Illinois Chicago 0.30.82.03.35.27.310.914.618.317.412.67.6
9. Indiana St. 0.20.81.62.64.66.39.713.717.518.815.29.3
10. Valparaiso 0.00.10.40.81.52.54.38.012.419.526.224.4
11. Evansville 0.00.00.10.50.71.62.86.29.217.225.336.4






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 13 Murray St. 30.0% 84 91 70.0% Akron
Dec. 13 Illinois Chicago 11.4% 68 83 88.6% Belmont
Dec. 13 North Dakota St. 28.3% 67 73 71.7% Drake
Dec. 13 Evansville 5.0% 60 80 95.0% Notre Dame
Dec. 13 Utah St. 71.4% 77 70 28.6% Illinois St.
Dec. 13 UNC Wilmington 63.3% 71 67 36.7% Valparaiso
Dec. 13 Oakland 28.2% 70 76 71.8% Northern Iowa
Dec. 13 Southern Illinois 36.8% 75 79 63.2% Richmond
Dec. 14 Indiana St. 41.2% 78 81 58.8% Milwaukee
Dec. 16 Belmont 81.8% 79 68 18.2% Evansville
Dec. 16 Valparaiso 5.5% 62 81 94.5% Northwestern
Dec. 17 Northern Iowa 59.6% 67 64 40.4% Illinois Chicago
Dec. 18 Bradley 50.9% 74 73 49.1% Indiana St.
Dec. 18 Drake 30.6% 73 79 69.4% Murray St.
Dec. 18 Illinois St. 45.5% 74 75 54.5% Southern Illinois