Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Missouri Valley

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Missouri Valley Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Belmont (64) 8 - 2 17 - 3 14.9 - 5.1 23.9 - 6.1 62.125.59.02.30.80.20.10.0
2. Murray St. (87) 8 - 2 16 - 5 13.8 - 6.2 21.8 - 9.2 25.735.422.010.34.31.80.40.10.0
3. Illinois St. (71) 6 - 4 13 - 7 12.8 - 7.2 19.8 - 10.2 9.425.429.117.89.84.92.50.80.20.0
4. Illinois Chicago (133) 7 - 4 10 - 10 11.3 - 8.7 14.3 - 14.7 1.66.616.623.220.115.29.85.31.60.1
5. Northern Iowa (99) 5 - 5 12 - 8 10.9 - 9.1 17.9 - 12.1 0.84.010.918.821.319.513.27.63.60.3
6. Bradley (137) 7 - 4 13 - 8 10.7 - 9.3 16.7 - 13.3 0.42.48.014.719.721.517.710.84.80.0
7. Drake (147) 5 - 5 9 - 10 9.8 - 10.2 13.8 - 15.2 0.10.52.67.212.518.924.720.812.30.50.0
8. Valparaiso (173) 4 - 5 9 - 10 8.9 - 11.1 13.9 - 16.1 0.00.21.54.88.712.218.726.121.46.10.3
9. Southern Illinois (129) 2 - 7 7 - 12 7.5 - 11.5 12.5 - 16.5 0.10.30.92.85.712.224.142.210.90.9
10. Indiana St. (196) 2 - 9 7 - 13 5.4 - 14.6 10.4 - 18.6 0.00.10.84.312.966.115.8
11. Evansville (278) 1 - 8 3 - 15 2.9 - 16.1 4.9 - 23.1 0.00.11.015.983.0
Weekly Changes
1. Belmont (64) +22.4-8.5-8.7-3.7-1.0-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Murray St. (87) -20.8+4.8+7.4+4.6+2.4+1.2+0.2+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
3. Illinois St. (71) -2.2+2.3-1.4+0.8+0.0-0.2+0.6+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0
4. Illinois Chicago (133) +1.2+4.7+9.1+8.7+1.8-5.2-6.9-6.2-4.4-2.7-0.0
5. Northern Iowa (99) +0.1-0.0+0.2+0.0-1.3+2.2+0.3-0.0-0.6-0.9-0.0
6. Bradley (137) -0.8-3.7-7.5-12.0-0.9+7.1+9.2+6.2+2.8-0.5+0.0
7. Drake (147) +0.1+0.4+2.2+5.2+7.2+8.7+8.7-0.2-12.7-18.4-1.1
8. Valparaiso (173) +0.0+0.1+0.2+1.1+1.6+0.6+2.7+5.4+0.2-10.5-1.4
9. Southern Illinois (129) -0.0-0.1-1.3-4.2-8.0-10.2-7.2+4.6+25.4+0.9+0.1
10. Indiana St. (196) +0.0+0.0-0.2-0.7-1.9-4.0-7.4-9.4-10.3+26.0+7.7
11. Evansville (278) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.3-0.5+6.2-5.3


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Belmont 51.170.221.46.21.70.50.20.00.0
2. Murray St. 20.235.836.917.16.72.50.90.20.00.0
3. Illinois St. 5.114.228.830.014.17.33.51.50.60.1
4. Illinois Chicago 0.93.110.018.923.919.313.07.43.50.90.0
5. Northern Iowa 0.21.56.414.721.020.316.411.06.12.60.2
6. Bradley 0.31.45.712.918.719.918.213.07.13.10.0
7. Drake 0.00.21.55.911.716.318.420.515.39.70.50.0
8. Valparaiso 0.00.10.62.56.210.013.718.824.520.52.90.2
9. Southern Illinois 0.00.10.30.92.85.712.224.142.610.90.5
10. Indiana St. 0.00.00.31.44.812.864.915.8
11. Evansville 0.00.00.21.215.982.7






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 28 Belmont 69.7% 76 71 30.3% Valparaiso
Jan. 28 Evansville 13.4% 63 76 86.6% Drake
Jan. 28 Illinois St. 41.2% 80 82 58.8% Murray St.
Jan. 28 Northern Iowa 44.2% 62 64 55.8% Southern Illinois
Jan. 31 Murray St. 27.8% 83 90 72.2% Belmont
Jan. 31 Bradley 38.2% 73 76 61.8% Drake
Jan. 31 Evansville 7.4% 52 68 92.6% Northern Iowa
Jan. 31 Illinois Chicago 32.4% 69 74 67.6% Southern Illinois
Jan. 31 Valparaiso 40.2% 71 74 59.8% Indiana St.
Feb. 03 Drake 14.0% 70 82 86.0% Belmont
Feb. 03 Valparaiso 27.1% 69 75 72.9% Bradley
Feb. 03 Indiana St. 54.4% 73 72 45.6% Evansville
Feb. 03 Illinois Chicago 21.2% 76 85 78.8% Murray St.
Feb. 03 Southern Illinois 19.0% 67 77 81.0% Illinois St.