Missouri Valley
Updated with games through Thursday, November 21
Conference Projections
Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the
Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.
| Missouri Valley |
Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Conf. |
Overall |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th |
| 1. |
Bradley (73) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
14.7 - 5.3 |
21.5 - 7.5 |
43.7 | 21.9 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2. |
Murray St. (92) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
13.1 - 6.9 |
18.9 - 10.1 |
21.2 | 20.5 | 16.0 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3. |
Northern Iowa (120) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
11.0 - 9.0 |
16.1 - 12.9 |
7.3 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 |
| 4. |
Drake (139) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 0 |
10.8 - 9.2 |
16.0 - 11.0 |
6.0 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 |
| 5. |
Belmont (144) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
10.6 - 9.4 |
16.3 - 12.7 |
5.1 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 11.2 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| 6. |
Southern Illinois (146) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
10.4 - 9.6 |
14.5 - 14.5 |
4.9 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 |
| 7. |
Illinois St. (150) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
10.2 - 9.8 |
15.2 - 12.8 |
3.9 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 |
| 8. |
Missouri St. (165) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
10.0 - 10.0 |
13.5 - 13.5 |
3.3 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 |
| 9. |
Illinois Chicago (156) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
9.9 - 10.1 |
13.1 - 13.9 |
3.3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.7 |
| 10. |
Indiana St. (192) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
8.5 - 11.5 |
12.7 - 16.3 |
1.2 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 7.3 |
| 11. |
Valparaiso (280) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
5.9 - 14.1 |
9.4 - 19.6 |
0.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 15.9 | 27.3 | 29.2 |
| 12. |
Evansville (311) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 4 |
4.9 - 15.1 |
7.1 - 22.9 |
0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 12.3 | 23.4 | 48.0 |
This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.
|
Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Outright |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th |
| 1. |
Bradley |
38.0 | 49.7 | 21.1 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2. |
Murray St. |
17.2 | 25.9 | 22.3 | 15.3 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3. |
Northern Iowa |
5.4 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 4. |
Drake |
4.4 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 5. |
Belmont |
3.9 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 11.2 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| 6. |
Southern Illinois |
3.6 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| 7. |
Illinois St. |
2.9 | 5.2 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 |
| 8. |
Missouri St. |
2.5 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 |
| 9. |
Illinois Chicago |
2.3 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 |
| 10. |
Indiana St. |
0.9 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 13.9 | 10.3 | 5.5 |
| 11. |
Valparaiso |
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 16.6 | 26.4 | 24.2 |
| 12. |
Evansville |
0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 13.9 | 24.0 | 41.6 |
