Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Mountain West

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Mountain West Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Boise St. (38) 0 - 0 6 - 2 14.2 - 5.8 20.6 - 8.4 28.322.217.111.78.65.93.51.60.80.20.1
2. Utah St. (40) 0 - 0 7 - 1 14.0 - 6.0 22.6 - 7.4 27.820.816.412.69.26.43.52.00.90.20.1
3. Colorado St. (48) 0 - 0 8 - 2 13.0 - 7.0 21.0 - 9.0 14.316.817.215.312.79.96.94.02.10.80.20.0
4. San Diego St. (45) 0 - 0 5 - 3 12.9 - 7.1 18.1 - 10.9 14.515.416.815.713.49.46.94.52.20.80.20.0
5. New Mexico (58) 0 - 0 7 - 2 12.3 - 7.7 20.2 - 9.8 9.312.413.615.814.812.49.66.33.51.60.50.1
6. Nevada (88) 0 - 0 7 - 3 10.6 - 9.4 18.5 - 12.5 2.54.67.510.313.915.916.213.28.55.11.90.4
7. Wyoming (85) 0 - 0 7 - 2 10.5 - 9.5 18.2 - 11.8 2.45.27.210.012.915.716.813.68.65.02.10.4
8. Grand Canyon (113) 0 - 0 5 - 4 8.9 - 11.1 15.7 - 15.3 0.61.72.74.77.611.315.017.916.712.57.12.1
9. UNLV (138) 0 - 0 4 - 5 7.6 - 12.4 12.5 - 17.5 0.20.41.02.33.96.810.514.921.619.513.65.3
10. Fresno St. (155) 0 - 0 5 - 5 6.9 - 13.1 11.9 - 18.1 0.10.20.51.32.34.57.313.718.923.418.69.2
11. San Jose St. (189) 0 - 0 4 - 5 5.4 - 14.6 9.8 - 20.2 0.10.10.30.81.43.36.712.120.932.322.2
12. Air Force (270) 0 - 0 3 - 8 3.6 - 16.4 6.6 - 24.4 0.00.00.10.20.51.64.19.923.460.3
Weekly Changes
1. Boise St. (38) +6.9+2.4-0.9-2.4-2.0-1.2-0.8-1.1-0.4-0.4-0.1-0.1
2. Utah St. (40) +2.0+0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3+0.0-0.6-0.3-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.0
3. Colorado St. (48) -7.6-4.7-0.5+1.6+2.7+3.4+2.4+1.6+0.9+0.2-0.0+0.0
4. San Diego St. (45) -6.0-4.6-1.1+0.8+3.5+2.3+2.3+1.8+0.8+0.2-0.0-0.0
5. New Mexico (58) +6.9+8.0+6.7+5.7+1.8-1.2-4.1-6.7-6.9-5.9-3.3-1.0
6. Nevada (88) -0.1-0.1+0.8-0.3+0.4+1.5+1.8+0.5-1.4-1.3-1.3-0.4
7. Wyoming (85) -1.3-0.4-1.8-1.8-0.7+0.7+2.8+2.8+0.2+0.0-0.4-0.2
8. Grand Canyon (113) -0.6-0.6-1.1-1.2-1.5-1.2+0.7+2.4+2.1+1.0+0.3-0.1
9. UNLV (138) -0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.5+0.3+0.1+1.0+3.0-0.5-1.5-1.6
10. Fresno St. (155) -0.2-0.5-1.1-1.7-2.9-3.7-3.6-1.0+1.5+4.6+5.4+3.1
11. San Jose St. (189) -0.0-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.4-0.8-0.4-0.4+1.0+2.3+1.0-1.9
12. Air Force (270) +0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.1+0.1+2.1


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Boise St. 22.734.522.915.510.67.44.62.51.30.60.10.1
2. Utah St. 22.233.721.715.211.37.75.32.61.60.70.20.1
3. Colorado St. 10.618.919.317.014.611.48.55.62.91.30.50.10.0
4. San Diego St. 11.218.917.816.714.711.88.45.93.61.50.60.10.0
5. New Mexico 6.512.514.614.816.113.911.28.05.12.41.20.30.0
6. Nevada 1.73.86.39.511.414.915.514.811.47.23.61.40.2
7. Wyoming 1.83.76.88.911.414.315.415.011.57.24.11.40.2
8. Grand Canyon 0.41.02.33.65.99.412.715.616.915.410.55.31.4
9. UNLV 0.10.30.61.63.05.08.111.916.121.317.611.13.5
10. Fresno St. 0.10.10.40.71.93.35.88.814.719.621.716.06.8
11. San Jose St. 0.00.00.00.20.41.12.14.18.413.922.130.117.5
12. Air Force 0.00.00.00.20.20.72.45.612.025.653.2






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 13 Coastal Carolina 12.8% 62 76 87.2% Grand Canyon
Dec. 13 Duquesne 13.0% 70 84 87.0% Nevada
Dec. 13 Utah St. 71.4% 77 70 28.6% Illinois St.
Dec. 13 Tennessee St. 14.8% 74 88 85.2% UNLV
Dec. 13 Stanford 63.7% 75 71 36.3% San Jose St.
Dec. 14 Saint Mary's 54.2% 69 68 45.8% Boise St.
Dec. 14 Florida Gulf Coast 7.4% 71 90 92.6% New Mexico
Dec. 15 Wyoming 69.4% 77 71 30.6% South Dakota St.
Dec. 17 Air Force 3.7% 57 79 96.3% San Diego St.