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NCAA Tournament

Mountain West

Updated with games through Wednesday, February 18

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Mountain West		Current Record		Projected Record		Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
	Team	Conf.	Overall	Conf.	Overall	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th
1.	Utah St. (21)	13 - 2	22 - 3	16.8 - 3.2	25.8 - 4.2	90.7	7.4	1.4	0.5	0.0
2.	San Diego St. (45)	12 - 3	17 - 7	14.6 - 5.4	19.6 - 9.4	4.9	51.1	21.9	21.1	0.9	0.0
3.	New Mexico (44)	11 - 4	19 - 6	13.9 - 6.1	21.9 - 8.1	3.6	32.3	41.1	15.1	6.7	1.0	0.2	0.0
4.	Grand Canyon (73)	10 - 5	17 - 9	13.4 - 6.6	20.4 - 10.6	0.8	8.8	31.9	43.5	13.9	0.9	0.1
5.	Nevada (75)	9 - 6	17 - 9	11.8 - 8.2	19.8 - 11.2		0.3	3.6	17.7	52.0	19.7	5.9	0.9
6.	Boise St. (51)	7 - 8	14 - 10	10.4 - 9.6	17.4 - 11.6			0.0	0.8	14.9	33.8	21.9	20.0	6.5	2.2
7.	UNLV (134)	8 - 7	12 - 13	9.8 - 10.2	13.8 - 16.2		0.0	0.1	1.0	8.0	16.6	31.1	32.3	8.5	2.4
8.	Colorado St. (85)	7 - 8	15 - 10	9.7 - 10.3	17.7 - 12.3			0.0	0.3	3.6	25.2	32.9	24.6	9.7	3.7	0.0
9.	Fresno St. (131)	6 - 9	11 - 14	7.9 - 12.1	12.9 - 17.1					0.0	2.3	5.4	13.1	34.4	44.4	0.4
10.	Wyoming (96)	5 - 10	13 - 12	7.7 - 12.3	15.7 - 14.3					0.0	0.5	2.6	9.1	40.8	46.6	0.4
11.	San Jose St. (231)	2 - 13	6 - 19	3.5 - 16.5	7.5 - 22.5									0.2	0.7	98.3	0.8
12.	Air Force (340)	0 - 15	3 - 23	0.5 - 19.5	3.5 - 27.5											0.8	99.2
Weekly Changes
1.	Utah St. (21)					+12.1	-10.8	-1.0	-0.1	-0.2	-0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
2.	San Diego St. (45)					-14.1	-7.6	+7.2	+16.1	-1.2	-0.5	-0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
3.	New Mexico (44)					+1.8	+17.9	-8.1	-6.0	-2.0	-3.6	-0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
4.	Grand Canyon (73)					+0.7	+7.3	+26.0	+18.7	-32.5	-15.7	-3.4	-0.9	-0.2	-0.0	+0.0	+0.0
5.	Nevada (75)					-0.5	-6.3	-20.5	-19.9	+32.4	+9.5	+4.6	+0.9	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
6.	Boise St. (51)					+0.0	-0.4	-3.7	-9.4	-4.5	-16.3	+10.4	+16.3	+5.6	+2.0	+0.0	+0.0
7.	UNLV (134)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.4	+5.2	+6.6	-5.3	+6.6	-7.7	-5.8	+0.0	+0.0
8.	Colorado St. (85)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.3	+2.8	+20.5	+6.0	-3.4	-11.9	-14.3	-0.0	+0.0
9.	Fresno St. (131)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-0.0	-0.1	+0.1	-2.8	-8.8	+1.8	+9.5	+0.2	+0.0
10.	Wyoming (96)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-0.0	-0.6	-9.3	-10.7	+12.2	+8.2	+0.2	+0.0
11.	San Jose St. (231)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-0.0	+0.2	+0.3	+4.9	-5.3
12.	Air Force (340)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-5.3	+5.3

This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

			Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
	Team	Outright	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th
1.	Utah St.	82.2	94.8	4.5	0.6	0.2
2.	San Diego St.	3.8	14.1	61.8	17.5	6.1	0.4
3.	New Mexico	0.9	5.0	39.1	34.9	17.4	3.3	0.2
4.	Grand Canyon	0.0	1.1	17.8	42.6	34.9	3.5	0.2	0.0
5.	Nevada	0.0	0.0	2.0	7.4	18.2	59.9	10.1	2.1	0.3
6.	Boise St.	0.0			0.1	2.1	22.6	44.9	18.4	9.2	2.2	0.5
7.	UNLV	0.0		0.0	0.2	1.1	10.9	25.2	37.1	23.2	2.0	0.2
8.	Colorado St.	0.0			0.1	0.9	10.2	29.9	28.8	22.6	5.9	1.6
9.	Fresno St.	0.0				0.0	0.3	3.9	8.0	15.8	44.2	27.7	0.0
10.	Wyoming	0.0					0.1	1.7	5.4	12.8	44.1	35.8	0.0
11.	San Jose St.	0.0								0.0	0.2	0.8	98.8	0.2
12.	Air Force	0.0											2.9	97.0

This Week's Games

Date	Away	W Prob, Pred Score				Home
Feb. 21	UNLV	86.2%	81	69	13.8%	Air Force
Feb. 21	San Jose St.	6.2%	64	82	93.8%	Boise St.
Feb. 21	San Diego St.	54.5%	72	70	45.5%	Colorado St.
Feb. 21	New Mexico	70.0%	78	72	30.0%	Fresno St.
Feb. 21	Wyoming	27.4%	68	75	72.6%	Grand Canyon
Feb. 21	Utah St.	70.5%	79	73	29.5%	Nevada
Feb. 24	San Jose St.	69.8%	72	66	30.2%	Air Force
Feb. 24	Wyoming	22.6%	70	78	77.4%	Boise St.
Feb. 24	Fresno St.	22.4%	67	75	77.6%	Colorado St.
Feb. 24	New Mexico	50.7%	76	75	49.3%	Nevada
Feb. 25	UNLV	18.8%	71	82	81.2%	Grand Canyon
Feb. 25	Utah St.	56.6%	76	74	43.4%	San Diego St.