Mountain West
Updated with games through Thursday, November 21
Conference Projections
Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the
Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.
| Mountain West |
Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Conf. |
Overall |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th |
| 1. |
Boise St. (23) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
15.1 - 4.9 |
21.3 - 6.7 |
34.2 | 25.7 | 17.1 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2. |
Nevada (26) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
15.0 - 5.0 |
23.1 - 6.9 |
31.5 | 25.4 | 17.9 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| 3. |
Utah St. (47) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 0 |
13.4 - 6.6 |
20.7 - 8.3 |
14.1 | 16.8 | 19.9 | 18.2 | 14.1 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4. |
New Mexico (53) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
13.1 - 6.9 |
20.1 - 8.9 |
11.4 | 16.0 | 18.3 | 18.9 | 15.6 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5. |
San Diego St. (71) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 1 |
11.9 - 8.1 |
16.2 - 11.8 |
5.9 | 9.6 | 14.0 | 17.2 | 19.6 | 15.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 6. |
UNLV (86) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
10.3 - 9.7 |
16.6 - 13.4 |
1.8 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 16.9 | 21.0 | 18.9 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 7. |
Colorado St. (101) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
9.5 - 10.5 |
15.9 - 14.1 |
1.2 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 13.5 | 19.2 | 22.8 | 14.4 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 8. |
Wyoming (174) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 1 |
6.3 - 13.7 |
11.5 - 17.5 |
0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 12.8 | 21.4 | 21.6 | 18.4 | 14.5 |
| 9. |
Fresno St. (212) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
5.3 - 14.7 |
9.6 - 21.4 |
0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 8.5 | 15.4 | 21.4 | 23.9 | 24.8 |
| 10. |
Air Force (220) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 4 |
5.2 - 14.8 |
9.3 - 21.7 |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 16.0 | 21.0 | 24.1 | 26.1 |
| 11. |
San Jose St. (236) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 5 |
4.9 - 15.1 |
7.4 - 22.6 |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 13.5 | 19.8 | 25.2 | 31.5 |
This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.
|
Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Outright |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th |
| 1. |
Boise St. |
28.6 | 41.2 | 24.7 | 15.7 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2. |
Nevada |
25.7 | 37.6 | 25.9 | 15.9 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | | |
| 3. |
Utah St. |
10.6 | 17.9 | 18.7 | 20.1 | 17.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4. |
New Mexico |
8.4 | 15.0 | 17.7 | 19.0 | 18.1 | 14.0 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5. |
San Diego St. |
4.2 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 15.4 | 17.1 | 19.5 | 13.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 6. |
UNLV |
1.2 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 8.8 | 13.2 | 17.8 | 20.8 | 16.8 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 7. |
Colorado St. |
0.7 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 9.9 | 15.0 | 19.8 | 22.0 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 8. |
Wyoming |
0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 7.9 | 14.5 | 22.9 | 21.0 | 15.8 | 11.4 |
| 9. |
Fresno St. |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 17.8 | 21.9 | 22.7 | 19.8 |
| 10. |
Air Force |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 4.6 | 9.2 | 17.8 | 21.6 | 23.3 | 20.9 |
| 11. |
San Jose St. |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 15.7 | 20.9 | 24.7 | 25.7 |
