Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Mountain West

Updated with games through Saturday, December 13

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Mountain West Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Utah St. (34) 0 - 0 8 - 1 14.4 - 5.6 23.3 - 6.7 32.222.716.411.28.04.82.61.40.50.20.00.0
2. Boise St. (36) 0 - 0 6 - 2 14.1 - 5.9 20.6 - 8.4 26.922.617.012.48.95.93.61.70.70.20.1
3. San Diego St. (44) 0 - 0 5 - 3 13.1 - 6.9 18.3 - 10.7 14.617.417.115.913.09.66.23.71.50.70.10.0
4. Colorado St. (53) 0 - 0 8 - 2 12.9 - 7.1 20.9 - 9.1 13.215.216.916.613.810.16.94.41.80.80.20.0
5. New Mexico (62) 0 - 0 7 - 2 12.2 - 7.8 20.1 - 9.9 8.411.714.115.414.813.010.26.83.61.60.40.1
6. Wyoming (85) 0 - 0 7 - 2 10.6 - 9.4 18.3 - 11.7 2.44.87.410.514.316.516.013.09.14.01.70.3
7. Nevada (93) 0 - 0 8 - 3 10.1 - 9.9 18.1 - 12.9 1.53.36.09.012.315.817.214.810.86.02.50.7
8. Grand Canyon (110) 0 - 0 6 - 4 9.2 - 10.8 16.2 - 14.8 0.61.83.75.88.812.216.918.515.110.24.91.6
9. Fresno St. (152) 0 - 0 5 - 5 7.2 - 12.8 12.2 - 17.8 0.10.30.71.72.75.38.414.620.622.216.37.3
10. UNLV (151) 0 - 0 4 - 6 7.0 - 13.0 11.0 - 19.0 0.10.20.71.32.84.98.213.119.923.117.48.3
11. San Jose St. (192) 0 - 0 4 - 6 5.4 - 14.6 9.4 - 20.6 0.00.10.30.61.63.46.412.621.132.022.1
12. Air Force (268) 0 - 0 3 - 8 3.6 - 16.4 6.6 - 24.4 0.00.00.10.20.41.73.99.824.559.5
Weekly Changes
1. Utah St. (34) +9.5+2.2-1.5-3.0-1.8-1.9-1.6-0.9-0.8-0.2-0.1+0.0
2. Boise St. (36) -2.4+0.4+0.1-0.3+1.1+0.8+0.5-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.0
3. San Diego St. (44) -2.9-1.1-0.8+0.5+1.5+1.6+0.6+0.7-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
4. Colorado St. (53) -6.3-4.2-0.3+2.1+2.3+2.4+1.9+1.4+0.4+0.4-0.0+0.0
5. New Mexico (62) +2.5+3.0+1.8+0.7-0.6-1.4-0.8-1.2-2.2-1.0-0.8-0.1
6. Wyoming (85) +0.3+0.7+0.8+1.2+0.6+0.4+1.0-0.1-1.0-2.3-1.4-0.4
7. Nevada (93) -0.3-0.2+0.2+0.0-0.5+0.5+0.9+0.9+0.4-0.7-1.1-0.1
8. Grand Canyon (110) -0.2-0.1+0.5+0.3+0.5+1.1+2.3+1.6-0.6-2.0-2.4-0.7
9. Fresno St. (152) -0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-1.5-0.9-2.2-0.4+2.3+2.7+0.5+0.7
10. UNLV (151) +0.0-0.4-0.3-0.8-1.1-2.1-1.5-1.0+1.7+2.5+1.4+1.6
11. San Jose St. (192) +0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.0+0.6+1.4+0.9
12. Air Force (268) +0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.4-0.1-0.2+0.1+2.5-1.9


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Utah St. 25.938.822.714.89.86.73.82.01.00.30.10.0
2. Boise St. 21.532.823.415.911.37.25.02.61.20.50.10.0
3. San Diego St. 11.019.319.017.415.311.98.04.82.81.00.50.10.0
4. Colorado St. 10.117.317.717.416.012.58.75.53.11.20.60.10.0
5. New Mexico 6.311.313.915.415.614.112.18.15.72.71.00.30.0
6. Wyoming 1.63.66.29.212.514.616.314.511.57.32.91.10.2
7. Nevada 1.12.54.67.710.713.415.616.313.68.64.61.90.4
8. Grand Canyon 0.41.02.54.87.110.514.216.417.313.58.03.81.0
9. Fresno St. 0.10.20.51.02.23.66.610.615.520.620.413.55.3
10. UNLV 0.00.10.30.92.13.56.09.614.820.321.415.16.0
11. San Jose St. 0.00.10.10.40.82.34.28.014.322.229.817.6
12. Air Force 0.00.00.00.00.10.30.72.25.112.726.452.4






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 14 Saint Mary's 56.0% 69 68 44.0% Boise St.
Dec. 14 Florida Gulf Coast 7.8% 71 89 92.2% New Mexico
Dec. 15 Wyoming 68.1% 77 71 31.9% South Dakota St.
Dec. 17 Air Force 3.6% 57 79 96.4% San Diego St.
Dec. 20 San Diego St. 12.4% 70 85 87.6% Arizona
Dec. 20 Boise St. 63.1% 73 69 36.9% Nevada
Dec. 20 Colorado St. 24.7% 72 79 75.3% Utah St.
Dec. 20 Fresno St. 35.1% 75 80 64.9% UNLV
Dec. 20 Grand Canyon 26.9% 68 75 73.1% Wyoming
Dec. 20 San Jose St. 8.1% 66 83 91.9% New Mexico