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Northeast

Updated with games through Thursday, November 21

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Northeast		Current Record		Projected Record		Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
	Team	Conf.	Overall	Conf.	Overall	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
1.	Central Connecticut (270)	0 - 0	1 - 3	10.1 - 5.9	13.8 - 13.2	29.8	20.3	13.9	10.8	8.4	6.3	4.8	3.6	2.2
2.	Mercyhurst (292)	0 - 0	2 - 2	9.2 - 6.8	13.2 - 14.8	19.3	16.3	15.3	12.7	10.2	8.7	7.5	6.3	3.7
3.	St. Francis PA (321)	0 - 0	1 - 4	8.4 - 7.6	11.2 - 15.8	11.2	12.7	13.5	12.8	12.4	10.9	10.1	8.8	7.4
4.	Wagner (320)	0 - 0	1 - 3	8.4 - 7.6	12.2 - 12.8	11.6	12.8	13.2	12.2	11.9	11.4	10.7	9.0	7.3
5.	Stonehill (325)	0 - 0	2 - 4	8.1 - 7.9	12.3 - 16.7	10.0	11.5	11.6	12.5	12.8	11.8	10.9	10.1	8.8
6.	Fairleigh Dickinson (343)	0 - 0	1 - 4	7.3 - 8.7	9.3 - 18.7	5.8	7.6	9.2	10.7	11.1	12.7	14.0	14.4	14.4
7.	Le Moyne (348)	0 - 0	0 - 4	7.1 - 8.9	9.8 - 19.2	4.7	7.5	9.0	9.9	12.3	13.4	13.5	14.1	15.8
8.	LIU Brooklyn (352)	0 - 0	1 - 3	7.0 - 9.0	10.3 - 18.7	4.7	7.0	8.0	10.3	10.8	13.3	13.8	15.8	16.3
9.	Chicago St. (355)	0 - 0	0 - 5	6.3 - 9.7	7.2 - 22.8	2.9	4.3	6.4	8.1	10.1	11.7	14.6	17.8	24.1

This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

			Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
	Team	Outright	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
1.	Central Connecticut	24.3	36.1	21.0	13.0	9.5	7.4	5.3	3.7	2.6	1.5
2.	Mercyhurst	15.3	24.1	18.2	15.6	11.5	9.0	7.9	6.2	4.7	2.7
3.	St. Francis PA	8.5	14.8	14.6	14.4	13.0	11.4	10.3	8.6	7.4	5.5
4.	Wagner	8.7	15.0	14.6	13.6	12.9	11.2	10.6	9.5	7.0	5.5
5.	Stonehill	7.7	13.1	13.5	12.7	12.7	12.3	11.0	9.8	8.5	6.3
6.	Fairleigh Dickinson	4.4	7.7	9.6	10.2	11.9	11.7	12.2	13.1	12.4	11.3
7.	Le Moyne	3.2	6.8	9.1	10.1	11.2	12.8	12.5	12.4	12.7	12.3
8.	LIU Brooklyn	3.5	6.6	8.2	9.4	11.0	12.1	12.4	13.4	14.1	12.7
9.	Chicago St.	2.1	4.0	5.6	7.8	9.6	10.7	12.6	13.8	16.7	19.3

This Week's Games

Date	Away	W Prob, Pred Score				Home
Nov. 22	Chicago St.	9.5%	64	80	90.5%	Indiana St.
Nov. 22	Tennessee Martin	70.2%	81	75	29.8%	Le Moyne
Nov. 23	LIU Brooklyn	6.8%	59	77	93.2%	Charlotte
Nov. 23	St. Francis PA	10.2%	65	81	89.8%	Georgetown
Nov. 23	Le Moyne	10.7%	67	82	89.3%	Tex A&M Corpus Chris
Nov. 24	Mercyhurst	21.8%	61	69	78.2%	Air Force
Nov. 24	Binghamton	26.5%	65	71	73.5%	Central Connecticut
Nov. 25	Radford	78.0%	76	68	22.0%	Chicago St.
Nov. 25	Le Moyne	11.2%	69	84	88.8%	UT Rio Grande Valley
Nov. 25	LIU Brooklyn	8.7%	65	82	91.3%	Winthrop
Nov. 25	Texas A&M Commerce	40.0%	67	70	60.0%	Stonehill
Nov. 26	Saint Peter's	65.1%	72	68	34.9%	Fairleigh Dickinson
Nov. 26	Wagner	10.3%	57	71	89.7%	Georgetown
Nov. 26	Lehigh	43.6%	70	72	56.4%	St. Francis PA
Nov. 27	Mercyhurst	6.7%	61	79	93.3%	California
Nov. 27	Stonehill	0.8%	54	88	99.2%	Marquette