Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Ohio Valley

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Ohio Valley Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Lindenwood (232) 1 - 0 4 - 4 12.8 - 7.2 16.1 - 11.9 20.417.215.813.711.48.86.13.71.90.80.2
2. Southeast Missouri St. (222) 0 - 0 2 - 6 11.9 - 7.1 13.9 - 13.1 18.215.915.114.112.09.96.94.22.41.00.4
3. Tennessee Martin (233) 0 - 0 5 - 3 12.4 - 7.6 17.4 - 10.6 17.616.414.213.611.99.67.34.82.71.40.4
4. Tennessee St. (262) 0 - 0 2 - 4 10.9 - 7.1 13.0 - 12.0 14.115.614.714.211.59.37.56.34.02.10.7
5. Tennessee Tech (246) 0 - 0 2 - 6 11.3 - 7.7 13.3 - 13.7 12.313.613.913.212.811.69.46.93.81.90.6
6. SIU Edwardsville (254) 0 - 0 4 - 4 11.7 - 8.3 15.7 - 12.3 12.212.813.112.913.311.910.16.84.12.20.8
7. Morehead St. (293) 0 - 0 1 - 7 9.8 - 10.2 10.8 - 17.2 3.65.17.08.811.513.615.113.910.97.23.2
8. Southern Indiana (321) 0 - 0 1 - 7 7.9 - 12.1 8.9 - 19.1 0.71.63.03.86.29.612.416.718.117.210.7
9. Eastern Illinois (322) 0 - 1 1 - 7 7.4 - 12.6 8.4 - 19.6 0.40.91.63.04.47.811.715.420.620.613.7
10. Little Rock (337) 0 - 0 1 - 8 7.1 - 12.9 8.1 - 20.9 0.50.81.42.54.26.410.114.719.122.917.5
11. Western Illinois (355) 0 - 0 0 - 7 4.9 - 15.1 5.1 - 22.9 0.00.10.20.30.71.73.46.512.422.951.8
Weekly Changes
1. Lindenwood (232) +5.9+3.0+2.4+1.4-0.6-1.8-2.4-2.5-3.0-1.9-0.6
2. Southeast Missouri St. (222) +1.2-0.3+0.3+1.9+0.9+0.7-0.8-1.4-1.1-1.1-0.2
3. Tennessee Martin (233) +1.4+1.8+0.2+0.6+0.0+0.0-0.5-0.8-1.2-1.0-0.4
4. Tennessee St. (262) -2.1-0.3-0.3+1.2+1.5+1.6+0.8-0.3-0.8-0.9-0.3
5. Tennessee Tech (246) +6.3+5.5+3.6+2.1+1.0-0.9-2.7-3.9-5.3-4.2-1.6
6. SIU Edwardsville (254) -9.5-4.6-1.0+0.6+2.6+3.6+3.6+2.2+1.4+0.8+0.3
7. Morehead St. (293) -0.1-0.2+0.4+0.2+1.1+1.5+2.7+0.7-1.5-3.0-1.6
8. Southern Indiana (321) -0.6-0.5-0.1-1.3+0.1+0.9+1.1+2.7+0.7-1.6-1.3
9. Eastern Illinois (322) -1.8-3.0-3.6-4.0-4.5-3.2-1.3+1.2+5.8+7.1+7.2
10. Little Rock (337) -0.8-1.4-2.0-2.5-2.0-2.6-1.5+0.3+1.9+3.3+7.3
11. Western Illinois (355) +0.0+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.9+1.8+3.0+2.7-8.7


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Lindenwood 18.422.818.216.013.611.27.95.42.81.40.60.1
2. Southeast Missouri St. 17.618.716.515.113.811.99.56.84.12.31.00.4
3. Tennessee Martin 15.619.717.014.813.711.99.46.23.92.20.90.3
4. Tennessee St. 14.114.115.614.714.612.99.46.15.84.02.10.7
5. Tennessee Tech 11.912.913.913.813.212.611.39.16.93.81.90.6
6. SIU Edwardsville 10.513.813.413.713.213.811.79.25.93.31.50.6
7. Morehead St. 3.04.25.77.89.312.814.115.512.99.55.92.2
8. Southern Indiana 0.50.91.93.34.57.410.313.417.417.915.08.0
9. Eastern Illinois 0.30.51.22.03.65.38.712.816.620.318.510.5
10. Little Rock 0.40.60.91.63.05.17.410.915.619.621.213.8
11. Western Illinois 0.00.00.10.20.31.12.24.37.814.223.945.9






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 13 Tennessee St. 14.8% 74 88 85.2% UNLV
Dec. 13 Western Illinois 16.7% 67 78 83.3% North Dakota
Dec. 14 Eastern Illinois 0.2% 53 94 99.8% Iowa St.
Dec. 16 Little Rock 22.7% 65 74 77.3% Morehead St.
Dec. 18 Little Rock 30.4% 68 74 69.6% Southern Indiana
Dec. 18 SIU Edwardsville 56.7% 66 65 43.3% Eastern Illinois
Dec. 18 Western Illinois 8.6% 65 81 91.4% Lindenwood
Dec. 18 Southeast Missouri St. 38.9% 75 78 61.1% Tennessee Tech
Dec. 18 Tennessee Martin 39.9% 70 73 60.1% Tennessee St.