Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Ohio Valley

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Ohio Valley Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Tennessee Martin (211) 7 - 2 12 - 5 14.6 - 5.4 19.6 - 8.4 58.621.610.15.12.61.20.70.10.0
2. Tennessee St. (230) 7 - 3 10 - 7 13.1 - 5.9 16.1 - 9.9 23.433.119.411.56.83.61.60.60.0
3. Lindenwood (224) 6 - 4 9 - 9 12.3 - 7.7 15.3 - 12.7 6.915.019.317.514.712.99.24.20.30.0
4. Morehead St. (295) 7 - 3 8 - 10 11.8 - 8.2 12.8 - 15.2 3.59.615.218.418.215.212.37.20.40.0
5. Southeast Missouri St. (251) 6 - 4 8 - 10 11.0 - 8.0 13.0 - 14.0 2.47.613.016.218.118.015.19.30.40.0
6. SIU Edwardsville (266) 6 - 4 10 - 8 11.2 - 8.8 15.2 - 12.8 2.25.910.012.816.117.718.815.60.80.0
7. Little Rock (301) 6 - 3 7 - 11 11.1 - 8.9 12.1 - 16.9 2.86.210.613.715.517.417.714.51.50.1
8. Eastern Illinois (299) 5 - 5 6 - 12 9.8 - 10.2 10.8 - 17.2 0.31.02.54.88.013.723.541.24.70.5
9. Southern Indiana (319) 2 - 8 3 - 15 5.8 - 14.2 6.8 - 21.2 0.00.20.74.252.535.96.6
10. Tennessee Tech (333) 2 - 8 4 - 14 5.7 - 14.3 7.7 - 20.3 0.00.00.10.53.037.553.05.8
11. Western Illinois (356) 0 - 10 1 - 17 2.6 - 17.4 3.6 - 24.4 0.02.010.387.6
Weekly Changes
1. Tennessee Martin (211) +0.1-1.1+0.1+0.3+0.3+0.0+0.3+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Tennessee St. (230) +4.7+4.8-1.5-2.2-2.4-1.8-1.1-0.3-0.1-0.0+0.0
3. Lindenwood (224) -6.1-6.6-1.0+0.9+2.6+4.2+3.7+2.4-0.1-0.0+0.0
4. Morehead St. (295) +0.5+1.4+0.7+0.9-0.3-1.0-0.2-1.0-0.9-0.2-0.0
5. Southeast Missouri St. (251) +0.4+0.9+0.1-0.8-1.1-0.8+0.6+1.4-0.7-0.1+0.0
6. SIU Edwardsville (266) +1.0+2.5+3.5+2.9+2.2-0.6-3.8-2.5-4.0-1.1-0.0
7. Little Rock (301) -0.7-2.2-2.3-2.2-1.0+0.6+2.6+5.3-0.2-0.1+0.0
8. Eastern Illinois (299) +0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.2+0.7+2.1+7.4-8.1-3.0-0.2
9. Southern Indiana (319) +0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.3-0.7-2.0-6.5+12.2+2.2-4.8
10. Tennessee Tech (333) -0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.2-0.6-2.2-6.0+3.9+6.4-1.2
11. Western Illinois (356) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.3-1.9-4.0+6.3


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Tennessee Martin 53.962.121.98.64.11.90.90.40.00.0
2. Tennessee St. 23.424.735.119.110.85.72.81.40.40.0
3. Lindenwood 4.79.917.021.717.713.810.66.42.80.10.0
4. Morehead St. 2.96.211.918.418.616.613.79.84.70.10.0
5. Southeast Missouri St. 1.22.47.613.016.218.118.015.19.30.40.0
6. SIU Edwardsville 1.13.17.412.415.717.617.915.99.60.40.0
7. Little Rock 1.73.67.112.214.416.317.316.611.70.80.1
8. Eastern Illinois 0.10.41.53.86.410.115.623.135.53.40.3
9. Southern Indiana 0.00.00.10.31.26.652.136.03.7
10. Tennessee Tech 0.00.00.10.21.05.350.339.23.9
11. Western Illinois 0.00.14.214.481.3






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 27 Tennessee Tech 14.4% 72 85 85.6% Tennessee St.
Jan. 29 Little Rock 20.7% 73 82 79.3% Tennessee St.
Jan. 29 Tennessee Martin 57.2% 63 61 42.8% Eastern Illinois
Jan. 29 Lindenwood 60.5% 75 72 39.5% Southern Indiana
Jan. 29 SIU Edwardsville 42.1% 66 68 57.9% Morehead St.
Jan. 29 Southeast Missouri St. 73.5% 75 68 26.5% Western Illinois
Jan. 31 Little Rock 45.6% 72 73 54.4% Tennessee Tech
Jan. 31 Southeast Missouri St. 46.8% 68 69 53.2% Eastern Illinois
Jan. 31 Lindenwood 52.1% 77 76 47.9% Morehead St.
Jan. 31 SIU Edwardsville 50.6% 65 64 49.4% Southern Indiana
Jan. 31 Tennessee Martin 80.8% 70 61 19.2% Western Illinois
Feb. 03 SIU Edwardsville 26.6% 66 73 73.4% Lindenwood
Feb. 03 Little Rock 17.4% 62 73 82.6% Tennessee Martin