Patriot
Updated with games through Thursday, November 21
Conference Projections
Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the
Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.
| Patriot |
Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Conf. |
Overall |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th |
| 1. |
Colgate (218) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 3 |
11.3 - 6.7 |
15.1 - 14.9 |
25.7 | 19.0 | 14.3 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 2. |
Bucknell (216) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 2 |
11.3 - 6.7 |
17.8 - 13.2 |
25.8 | 18.8 | 15.1 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 3. |
American (259) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 4 |
9.7 - 8.3 |
13.1 - 15.9 |
11.6 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 4.9 |
| 4. |
Army (275) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
9.3 - 8.7 |
14.1 - 13.9 |
8.4 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 6.2 |
| 5. |
Boston University (274) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 4 |
9.2 - 8.8 |
13.2 - 16.8 |
8.0 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 6.4 |
| 6. |
Lehigh (285) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 4 |
9.0 - 9.0 |
11.3 - 15.7 |
7.5 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 7.8 |
| 7. |
Holy Cross (290) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 2 |
8.6 - 9.4 |
13.7 - 15.3 |
5.9 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 10.9 | 9.4 |
| 8. |
Lafayette (303) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 4 |
8.0 - 10.0 |
12.5 - 17.5 |
3.9 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 13.7 | 12.5 |
| 9. |
Navy (326) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 4 |
7.3 - 10.7 |
10.7 - 19.3 |
2.4 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 14.0 | 17.1 | 19.0 |
| 10. |
Loyola MD (349) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 3 |
6.3 - 11.7 |
9.8 - 18.2 |
0.9 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 14.3 | 19.7 | 31.1 |
This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.
|
Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Outright |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th |
| 1. |
Colgate |
21.1 | 31.1 | 19.9 | 14.2 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2. |
Bucknell |
21.2 | 31.1 | 19.7 | 14.4 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3. |
American |
8.9 | 14.7 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.6 |
| 4. |
Army |
6.4 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.5 |
| 5. |
Boston University |
6.1 | 10.5 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 4.8 |
| 6. |
Lehigh |
5.5 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 |
| 7. |
Holy Cross |
4.3 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 11.0 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 6.9 |
| 8. |
Lafayette |
2.8 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 9.7 |
| 9. |
Navy |
1.7 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 13.7 | 15.4 | 15.4 |
| 10. |
Loyola MD |
0.7 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 14.1 | 19.1 | 25.8 |
