Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Patriot

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Patriot Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th
1. Navy (180) 7 - 1 13 - 6 14.2 - 3.8 20.2 - 8.8 59.123.016.41.30.20.0
2. Colgate (192) 6 - 2 10 - 9 13.1 - 4.9 17.1 - 11.9 24.936.032.75.40.80.20.00.0
3. American (239) 6 - 2 11 - 8 12.6 - 5.4 17.6 - 11.4 15.536.737.98.21.20.40.10.1
4. Lehigh (300) 5 - 3 7 - 12 9.5 - 8.5 11.5 - 17.5 0.53.69.547.220.59.54.92.71.20.5
5. Boston University (284) 3 - 5 7 - 13 8.5 - 9.5 12.5 - 17.5 0.00.62.320.634.218.111.07.04.02.1
6. Holy Cross (331) 3 - 5 6 - 13 7.1 - 10.9 10.1 - 18.9 0.10.46.515.419.819.116.513.58.7
7. Lafayette (318) 2 - 6 4 - 16 6.6 - 11.4 8.6 - 21.4 0.00.22.68.018.518.718.617.216.2
8. Loyola MD (341) 3 - 5 5 - 14 6.4 - 11.6 8.4 - 20.6 0.00.00.12.98.212.817.318.520.619.6
9. Bucknell (342) 3 - 5 6 - 15 6.1 - 11.9 9.1 - 21.9 0.00.32.95.910.314.718.422.225.3
10. Army (338) 2 - 6 6 - 13 6.0 - 12.0 10.0 - 19.0 0.12.55.610.514.218.221.327.6
Weekly Changes
1. Navy (180) +12.6-13.7+2.7-1.2-0.3-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Colgate (192) -20.7+0.2+18.8+2.0-0.2-0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0
3. American (239) +8.6+15.7-3.8-9.0-6.1-2.9-1.4-0.8-0.3-0.0
4. Lehigh (300) -0.2-0.5-6.3+16.2+0.2-2.7-2.9-1.8-1.3-0.8
5. Boston University (284) -0.2-0.4-3.3+3.4+12.2-1.4-2.8-3.4-2.9-1.2
6. Holy Cross (331) -0.1-0.8-3.8-4.7-2.2+1.6+0.9+2.0+3.3+3.8
7. Lafayette (318) -0.0-0.1-1.4-3.0-1.6+3.2+1.2-0.6-0.1+2.3
8. Loyola MD (341) +0.0+0.0-0.2+1.0+3.2+4.2+4.1-0.1-6.9-5.4
9. Bucknell (342) -0.1-0.4-2.6-5.5-7.0-6.2-3.4+1.3+8.4+15.4
10. Army (338) +0.0-0.1-0.1+0.9+1.7+4.4+4.4+3.4-0.4-14.2


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th
1. Navy 50.969.620.79.00.60.1
2. Colgate 18.635.139.922.72.00.30.1
3. American 8.020.036.636.75.70.80.20.0
4. Lehigh 0.10.64.211.450.320.48.13.11.30.40.1
5. Boston University 0.00.11.15.030.831.214.98.44.62.61.1
6. Holy Cross 0.00.00.20.911.819.320.818.113.19.56.4
7. Lafayette 0.00.00.45.612.820.019.116.914.211.1
8. Loyola MD 0.00.00.10.25.111.017.219.217.916.912.5
9. Bucknell 0.00.00.44.08.714.318.119.019.416.1
10. Army 0.00.23.39.015.016.717.618.120.1






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 28 American 63.9% 78 74 36.1% Loyola MD
Jan. 28 Lehigh 48.0% 74 75 52.0% Army
Jan. 28 Navy 59.9% 72 70 40.1% Boston University
Jan. 28 Holy Cross 10.6% 65 79 89.4% Colgate
Jan. 28 Bucknell 28.6% 67 73 71.4% Lafayette
Jan. 31 Lafayette 18.3% 68 78 81.7% American
Jan. 31 Holy Cross 37.6% 70 74 62.4% Army
Jan. 31 Boston University 54.5% 72 71 45.5% Bucknell
Jan. 31 Colgate 61.7% 75 72 38.3% Lehigh
Jan. 31 Loyola MD 8.2% 64 81 91.8% Navy
Feb. 02 Boston University 50.5% 72 71 49.5% Holy Cross