Patriot
Updated with games through Thursday, December 11
Conference Projections
Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the
Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.
| Patriot |
Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Conf. |
Overall |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th |
| 1. |
Colgate (147) |
0 - 0 |
4 - 5 |
14.2 - 3.8 |
19.0 - 10.0 |
65.1 | 20.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2. |
Navy (208) |
0 - 0 |
5 - 5 |
11.8 - 6.2 |
17.8 - 11.2 |
18.5 | 30.0 | 19.2 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3. |
American (276) |
0 - 0 |
5 - 4 |
9.8 - 8.2 |
14.9 - 14.1 |
5.0 | 13.5 | 16.3 | 16.8 | 14.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| 4. |
Boston University (278) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 7 |
9.7 - 8.3 |
13.8 - 16.2 |
4.4 | 12.8 | 16.4 | 15.6 | 14.4 | 11.9 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 |
| 5. |
Holy Cross (292) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 6 |
8.8 - 9.2 |
12.6 - 16.4 |
2.4 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 13.6 | 14.7 | 12.7 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 4.8 |
| 6. |
Lehigh (297) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 8 |
8.7 - 9.3 |
10.9 - 18.1 |
2.5 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 |
| 7. |
Bucknell (308) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 9 |
8.2 - 9.8 |
11.3 - 19.7 |
1.4 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 13.5 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 7.9 |
| 8. |
Army (333) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 7 |
6.6 - 11.4 |
9.6 - 19.4 |
0.3 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 13.5 | 16.0 | 19.8 | 21.7 |
| 9. |
Lafayette (334) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 8 |
6.5 - 11.5 |
8.7 - 21.3 |
0.3 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 16.6 | 20.4 | 22.2 |
| 10. |
Loyola MD (345) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 7 |
5.8 - 12.2 |
8.4 - 20.6 |
0.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 11.1 | 15.5 | 22.1 | 32.6 |
Weekly Changes |
| 1. |
Colgate (147) |
|
+15.0 | -3.1 | -4.4 | -3.3 | -2.1 | -1.1 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| 2. |
Navy (208) |
|
-2.1 | +6.4 | +0.0 | -1.5 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| 3. |
American (276) |
|
-0.5 | +2.9 | +2.5 | +1.5 | -0.7 | -1.1 | -1.5 | -1.7 | -1.1 | -0.3 |
| 4. |
Boston University (278) |
|
-9.8 | -7.7 | -3.4 | +1.1 | +3.1 | +3.5 | +4.5 | +3.7 | +3.2 | +1.8 |
| 5. |
Holy Cross (292) |
|
+0.6 | +3.0 | +4.4 | +2.9 | +0.7 | +0.4 | -2.2 | -2.5 | -3.6 | -3.5 |
| 6. |
Lehigh (297) |
|
-1.5 | -1.6 | +0.5 | -0.7 | -1.2 | -0.4 | +0.6 | +1.2 | +1.5 | +1.7 |
| 7. |
Bucknell (308) |
|
-1.3 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -1.1 | -0.1 | -0.4 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +0.7 | +1.6 |
| 8. |
Army (333) |
|
-0.0 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +1.4 | +1.1 | +0.7 | +0.4 | -1.3 | -0.9 | -2.2 |
| 9. |
Lafayette (334) |
|
+0.0 | +0.9 | +1.9 | +2.4 | +3.0 | +3.0 | +2.7 | +1.4 | -1.9 | -13.5 |
| 10. |
Loyola MD (345) |
|
-0.5 | -0.7 | -1.7 | -2.7 | -2.9 | -3.9 | -3.7 | -1.3 | +2.6 | +14.8 |
This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.
|
Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Outright |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th |
| 1. |
Colgate |
59.2 | 72.0 | 17.9 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| 2. |
Navy |
14.2 | 22.9 | 32.5 | 18.1 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3. |
American |
3.5 | 7.0 | 16.2 | 18.3 | 16.8 | 13.2 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 4. |
Boston University |
3.3 | 6.2 | 15.4 | 18.6 | 15.8 | 13.9 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| 5. |
Holy Cross |
1.5 | 3.3 | 9.7 | 13.7 | 14.2 | 14.4 | 14.2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 3.5 |
| 6. |
Lehigh |
1.6 | 3.5 | 8.8 | 13.4 | 14.5 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 |
| 7. |
Bucknell |
1.0 | 2.1 | 6.8 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 14.5 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 5.7 |
| 8. |
Army |
0.2 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 14.3 | 15.8 | 18.0 | 17.2 |
| 9. |
Lafayette |
0.1 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 14.2 | 16.3 | 18.7 | 17.6 |
| 10. |
Loyola MD |
0.0 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 16.4 | 20.9 | 27.1 |
