Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Sun Belt

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Sun Belt Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th
1. Troy (115) 8 - 1 13 - 6 15.3 - 2.7 20.3 - 7.7 94.84.00.90.10.10.10.0
2. Arkansas St. (160) 5 - 4 11 - 8 12.0 - 6.0 18.0 - 10.0 1.940.723.414.89.05.72.81.10.40.10.10.0
3. Marshall (148) 5 - 3 12 - 7 10.7 - 6.3 17.7 - 10.3 0.818.720.318.014.910.37.44.62.71.50.60.20.1
4. South Alabama (195) 5 - 3 12 - 6 10.6 - 6.4 17.6 - 9.4 1.118.220.519.014.511.16.94.52.51.20.50.10.0
5. Georgia St. (257) 6 - 3 7 - 12 10.1 - 7.9 11.1 - 16.9 0.87.011.613.715.114.611.99.47.24.62.61.20.2
6. Coastal Carolina (226) 6 - 4 12 - 9 10.1 - 7.9 16.1 - 12.9 0.26.89.612.314.715.815.511.27.43.92.00.50.1
7. Appalachian St. (204) 6 - 4 11 - 9 9.9 - 8.1 14.9 - 13.1 0.43.38.111.013.114.714.912.010.06.34.11.80.3
8. Georgia Southern (240) 5 - 4 11 - 9 9.3 - 8.7 15.3 - 13.7 1.14.17.310.112.514.617.113.39.86.23.00.9
9. Southern Miss (247) 5 - 5 9 - 11 8.2 - 9.8 12.2 - 15.8 0.20.71.53.25.69.414.318.417.815.111.02.7
10. James Madison (228) 3 - 6 9 - 11 7.8 - 10.2 13.8 - 15.2 0.10.71.63.65.69.011.214.717.917.012.26.30.0
11. Texas St. (287) 4 - 6 9 - 11 7.4 - 10.6 12.4 - 15.6 0.00.20.40.92.44.27.611.818.122.220.611.50.0
12. Old Dominion (243) 3 - 6 5 - 15 6.6 - 10.4 8.6 - 19.4 0.00.10.30.81.63.16.29.814.820.728.114.3
13. Louisiana Lafayette (340) 3 - 6 5 - 16 5.1 - 11.9 7.1 - 21.9 0.00.10.10.81.73.98.821.163.40.1
14. Louisiana Monroe (358) 0 - 9 1 - 18 1.0 - 17.0 2.0 - 26.0 0.00.299.8
Weekly Changes
1. Troy (115) +12.3-8.2-2.4-1.0-0.4-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Arkansas St. (160) -6.8+4.7+2.3+2.2+1.1+0.3-0.7-1.4-0.8-0.5-0.3-0.2-0.0+0.0
3. Marshall (148) -1.2+0.5+0.4+2.0+2.0+0.8+0.0-0.8-1.2-1.3-0.8-0.5-0.0+0.0
4. South Alabama (195) -0.9+8.8+7.3+4.7+1.4-0.7-2.9-4.1-3.9-4.1-3.4-2.0-0.2+0.0
5. Georgia St. (257) +0.2+3.9+6.1+6.6+6.0+5.3+1.4-1.7-3.5-6.3-7.4-6.8-3.9-0.0
6. Coastal Carolina (226) -0.2+2.3+1.8+3.1+3.9+4.9+3.7+0.7-2.8-4.7-5.8-4.8-2.2+0.0
7. Appalachian St. (204) -0.1-0.1+0.5+0.4+1.3+2.2+2.8+0.6-0.6-2.3-2.1-1.9-0.7+0.0
8. Georgia Southern (240) -2.8-8.8-8.1-5.6-2.5-0.1+3.9+7.6+6.1+5.1+3.3+1.6+0.3+0.0
9. Southern Miss (247) -0.4-2.2-5.2-6.9-6.5-5.6-2.0+2.2+6.5+6.8+6.2+4.9+2.0+0.0
10. James Madison (228) -0.1-0.4-0.9-1.7-1.0-0.8+0.6+1.5+2.7+3.1+1.5-4.0-0.7+0.0
11. Texas St. (287) -0.0-0.4-1.2-2.8-3.4-3.7-3.6-2.4-0.8+3.8+4.8+4.3+5.4-0.0
12. Old Dominion (243) -0.0-0.2-0.7-1.1-2.0-2.5-2.9-2.2-1.9-0.0+2.1+5.4+6.1-0.0
13. Louisiana Lafayette (340) +0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.5+1.9+4.2-5.9-0.1
14. Louisiana Monroe (358) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.2+0.2


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th
1. Troy 92.796.82.60.50.10.10.0
2. Arkansas St. 1.04.145.324.513.96.83.21.40.50.20.10.0
3. Marshall 0.81.022.221.817.013.59.16.94.32.41.20.40.20.0
4. South Alabama 0.91.118.521.018.814.610.86.94.52.21.10.40.1
5. Georgia St. 0.20.97.112.614.917.215.412.28.15.53.31.90.80.2
6. Coastal Carolina 0.00.38.211.714.617.116.213.88.55.52.51.20.40.1
7. Appalachian St. 0.10.45.610.313.415.616.614.79.96.93.62.00.90.1
8. Georgia Southern 0.00.12.65.99.312.714.116.214.311.46.94.01.90.7
9. Southern Miss 0.00.00.51.42.75.58.212.715.318.014.412.07.51.9
10. James Madison 0.00.10.72.04.56.810.512.115.615.415.111.06.2
11. Texas St. 0.00.10.20.92.03.96.810.114.717.617.816.09.8
12. Old Dominion 0.00.00.10.40.91.83.16.510.015.222.331.58.3
13. Louisiana Lafayette 0.00.00.10.20.81.84.39.823.159.90.1
14. Louisiana Monroe 0.00.00.299.8






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 28 Old Dominion 19.0% 76 87 81.0% Arkansas St.
Jan. 28 Marshall 68.0% 78 72 32.0% Texas St.
Jan. 29 Appalachian St. 45.4% 66 67 54.6% Southern Miss
Jan. 29 Coastal Carolina 28.1% 66 72 71.9% South Alabama
Jan. 29 Georgia Southern 77.4% 90 80 22.6% Louisiana Monroe
Jan. 29 Georgia St. 59.2% 65 62 40.8% Louisiana Lafayette
Jan. 29 James Madison 14.0% 71 83 86.0% Troy
Jan. 31 Appalachian St. 17.2% 64 74 82.8% Troy
Jan. 31 Marshall 37.2% 82 86 62.8% Arkansas St.
Jan. 31 Coastal Carolina 79.7% 82 72 20.3% Louisiana Monroe
Jan. 31 Georgia Southern 63.1% 73 69 36.9% Louisiana Lafayette
Jan. 31 Georgia St. 22.4% 64 73 77.6% South Alabama
Jan. 31 James Madison 39.6% 72 75 60.4% Southern Miss
Jan. 31 Old Dominion 45.7% 72 73 54.3% Texas St.