Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Sun Belt

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Sun Belt Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th
1. Troy (146) 0 - 0 4 - 5 12.8 - 5.2 17.0 - 11.0 31.919.413.610.27.65.64.52.92.01.10.60.30.10.0
2. Marshall (149) 0 - 0 6 - 4 12.3 - 5.7 18.9 - 10.1 23.319.714.511.08.76.75.53.82.82.11.30.40.2
3. South Alabama (174) 0 - 0 7 - 2 11.2 - 6.8 18.8 - 9.2 10.912.913.312.311.010.68.47.05.73.72.51.30.30.1
4. Arkansas St. (181) 0 - 0 6 - 3 11.0 - 7.0 17.4 - 10.6 10.712.012.211.711.99.88.47.45.94.73.01.40.80.2
5. Southern Miss (191) 0 - 0 4 - 4 10.5 - 7.5 14.7 - 13.3 6.99.211.111.011.010.110.18.97.85.74.22.41.10.3
6. James Madison (195) 0 - 0 6 - 4 10.0 - 8.0 16.0 - 13.0 5.17.28.910.110.111.19.910.28.67.55.93.51.50.3
7. Coastal Carolina (239) 0 - 0 5 - 4 9.4 - 8.6 14.9 - 14.1 3.25.47.18.38.79.910.310.510.39.37.75.13.01.1
8. Georgia Southern (241) 0 - 0 5 - 5 9.2 - 8.8 14.7 - 14.3 3.24.66.27.99.09.410.19.910.910.08.06.03.41.4
9. Appalachian St. (253) 0 - 0 4 - 5 8.8 - 9.2 13.0 - 15.0 1.83.54.86.18.08.59.610.811.311.611.47.63.81.2
10. Old Dominion (256) 0 - 0 2 - 7 8.6 - 9.4 10.9 - 18.1 1.63.14.15.76.68.69.511.211.412.511.58.34.71.1
11. Texas St. (269) 0 - 0 5 - 5 8.3 - 9.7 13.3 - 14.7 1.22.73.64.65.67.09.210.712.113.512.79.65.61.8
12. Georgia St. (319) 0 - 0 0 - 9 5.5 - 12.5 6.0 - 22.0 0.10.30.40.81.21.72.73.86.39.013.619.522.718.0
13. Louisiana Lafayette (344) 0 - 0 1 - 9 4.8 - 13.2 6.3 - 23.7 0.00.10.20.50.71.42.33.66.411.420.627.325.4
14. Louisiana Monroe (353) 0 - 0 1 - 7 3.6 - 14.4 4.7 - 23.3 0.00.10.00.20.30.51.33.06.014.025.648.9
Weekly Changes
1. Troy (146) -4.1-0.2+0.5+1.0+0.9+0.5+0.7+0.5+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0
2. Marshall (149) +10.0+4.3+0.5-1.4-1.4-2.1-1.8-2.4-1.8-1.3-1.2-1.0-0.4-0.1
3. South Alabama (174) -5.6-3.4-1.0-0.1+0.5+1.8+1.5+1.6+1.9+1.3+1.1+0.5+0.0+0.0
4. Arkansas St. (181) +0.2+0.6-0.3+0.2+1.0+0.3-0.6-0.0+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.8-0.4+0.1
5. Southern Miss (191) +1.6+1.8+2.5+0.9+0.7-0.4-0.4-1.0-0.6-1.4-1.3-1.2-0.8-0.4
6. James Madison (195) -2.5-4.0-2.7-1.6-1.2+1.2+1.2+1.9+2.0+2.1+2.0+1.1+0.4+0.1
7. Coastal Carolina (239) +1.6+2.2+2.4+2.1+1.8+1.8+1.3+0.3-0.3-1.8-2.0-3.8-3.7-1.8
8. Georgia Southern (241) -0.5-1.1-0.8-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.1+0.2+1.0+1.4+0.4+0.5-0.1-0.2
9. Appalachian St. (253) +0.7+1.1+0.8+0.9+1.7+0.5+1.0+1.0+0.0-0.3-0.7-2.9-2.6-1.1
10. Old Dominion (256) -0.6-0.5-0.9-0.0-0.7-0.4-1.0+1.2+0.4+1.6+1.0+0.3-0.0-0.5
11. Texas St. (269) -0.6-0.5-0.4-0.8-1.4-1.0+0.3-0.0+0.3+1.5+1.7+1.3+0.1-0.3
12. Georgia St. (319) -0.1-0.1-0.3-0.7-1.0-1.2-1.4-1.8-1.4-0.9+0.4+2.8+2.8+3.2
13. Louisiana Lafayette (344) -0.0-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.5-1.1-1.5-1.8-1.1+1.0+2.8+4.0
14. Louisiana Monroe (353) +0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.1+2.1+2.0-3.1


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th
1. Troy 25.638.620.512.79.16.54.53.42.11.30.80.40.10.00.0
2. Marshall 18.329.920.613.710.07.85.44.43.22.21.50.90.30.1
3. South Alabama 8.115.315.213.813.011.19.07.55.54.32.61.80.70.20.1
4. Arkansas St. 7.614.514.213.012.511.28.77.66.55.03.31.90.90.40.2
5. Southern Miss 5.19.812.212.211.211.09.79.48.16.34.53.21.70.80.1
6. James Madison 3.67.29.510.410.910.710.19.69.37.36.34.82.61.00.2
7. Coastal Carolina 2.35.17.18.29.79.89.710.49.79.48.06.33.92.10.6
8. Georgia Southern 2.04.56.17.69.19.79.69.810.39.88.57.14.92.30.7
9. Appalachian St. 1.12.95.25.97.78.89.310.110.610.710.49.45.62.80.8
10. Old Dominion 0.92.44.15.67.18.18.810.910.811.210.89.76.43.30.8
11. Texas St. 0.72.03.54.35.67.08.19.811.112.312.211.47.53.91.3
12. Georgia St. 0.00.10.40.61.11.42.33.64.87.210.014.720.120.812.9
13. Louisiana Lafayette 0.00.00.10.20.40.81.12.03.04.67.913.321.026.019.6
14. Louisiana Monroe 0.00.00.10.00.00.40.50.91.94.17.615.826.842.0






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 13 Arkansas St. 41.3% 75 77 58.7% Rice
Dec. 13 Coastal Carolina 12.8% 62 76 87.2% Grand Canyon
Dec. 13 Old Dominion 6.7% 62 80 93.3% George Mason
Dec. 13 Georgia Southern 44.4% 78 79 55.6% West Georgia
Dec. 13 Jacksonville St. 51.5% 68 67 48.5% Georgia St.
Dec. 13 Louisiana Lafayette 10.1% 55 69 89.9% Louisiana Tech
Dec. 13 Louisiana Monroe 0.7% 60 97 99.3% Miami FL
Dec. 13 Wright St. 38.2% 73 76 61.8% Marshall
Dec. 13 Southern Miss 14.2% 66 78 85.8% Mississippi
Dec. 14 Troy 24.5% 72 80 75.5% UAB
Dec. 14 High Point 84.1% 78 66 15.9% Appalachian St.
Dec. 14 North Texas 38.8% 64 67 61.2% South Alabama
Dec. 17 Arkansas St. 50.7% 77 76 49.3% Texas St.
Dec. 17 James Madison 45.4% 76 77 54.6% Old Dominion
Dec. 17 South Alabama 82.2% 79 69 17.8% Louisiana Monroe
Dec. 18 Coastal Carolina 37.2% 63 67 62.8% Appalachian St.
Dec. 18 Georgia St. 18.2% 71 83 81.8% Georgia Southern
Dec. 18 Louisiana Lafayette 10.1% 60 75 89.9% Southern Miss