Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Sun Belt

Updated with games through Thursday, November 21

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Sun Belt Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th
1. Arkansas St. (93) 0 - 0 3 - 1 13.4 - 4.6 20.8 - 8.2 41.721.012.68.26.03.82.41.71.20.60.50.30.10.0
2. Troy (130) 0 - 0 3 - 2 11.5 - 6.5 16.9 - 10.1 14.815.315.312.210.48.56.64.94.13.12.51.30.70.4
3. James Madison (168) 0 - 0 2 - 2 10.9 - 7.1 15.1 - 11.9 10.913.611.911.710.39.17.76.75.54.43.22.41.80.8
4. Marshall (162) 0 - 0 2 - 1 10.8 - 7.2 16.5 - 12.5 11.113.312.311.19.88.78.26.75.54.63.62.71.70.8
5. Georgia Southern (215) 0 - 0 3 - 2 9.7 - 8.3 15.1 - 13.9 4.27.99.09.89.89.49.48.57.87.75.95.03.22.1
6. Louisiana Lafayette (208) 0 - 0 0 - 3 9.3 - 8.7 12.4 - 14.6 3.95.97.98.89.09.49.79.48.68.16.85.94.42.4
7. Texas St. (202) 0 - 0 1 - 3 9.1 - 8.9 12.1 - 14.9 3.75.97.28.28.98.99.59.28.68.07.66.45.02.9
8. South Alabama (211) 0 - 0 2 - 2 9.0 - 9.0 14.8 - 13.2 3.55.16.87.98.99.19.59.78.88.27.66.74.83.3
9. Appalachian St. (232) 0 - 0 1 - 2 8.9 - 9.1 11.8 - 14.2 3.04.96.67.88.69.29.09.59.28.58.26.55.23.9
10. Georgia St. (245) 0 - 0 1 - 2 8.4 - 9.6 12.7 - 16.3 1.73.54.96.37.48.69.09.510.210.19.78.26.54.4
11. Southern Miss (257) 0 - 0 1 - 2 7.4 - 10.6 11.3 - 16.7 1.02.12.83.75.06.27.68.79.910.910.611.310.79.3
12. Coastal Carolina (312) 0 - 0 1 - 3 6.2 - 11.8 9.8 - 18.2 0.20.61.11.72.63.85.06.27.99.411.714.517.118.2
13. Louisiana Monroe (306) 0 - 0 0 - 4 5.9 - 12.1 8.9 - 20.1 0.20.41.01.51.93.03.75.37.18.911.514.719.321.6
14. Old Dominion (330) 0 - 0 1 - 3 5.4 - 12.6 7.6 - 18.4 0.10.30.71.01.32.32.84.25.77.510.614.019.629.9


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th
1. Arkansas St. 36.049.520.211.46.74.82.71.81.20.90.40.30.20.00.0
2. Troy 11.119.017.815.811.59.77.05.54.63.22.51.71.00.50.2
3. James Madison 8.014.215.313.411.710.48.26.76.04.63.52.41.91.20.5
4. Marshall 8.114.214.913.111.79.58.17.86.04.34.02.82.11.10.5
5. Georgia Southern 3.06.610.010.710.410.09.49.07.87.26.54.93.82.41.3
6. Louisiana Lafayette 2.65.47.59.49.49.710.09.88.87.86.66.14.73.31.6
7. Texas St. 2.44.97.38.68.99.29.49.78.58.37.56.55.43.72.1
8. South Alabama 2.24.86.48.28.99.79.69.39.58.37.66.35.43.82.3
9. Appalachian St. 2.14.26.88.28.49.29.49.68.98.48.16.75.43.92.7
10. Georgia St. 1.32.74.76.67.18.38.99.69.89.79.58.46.94.83.1
11. Southern Miss 0.71.52.73.94.36.36.98.49.39.910.211.010.19.16.5
12. Coastal Carolina 0.10.40.91.52.23.84.85.77.28.49.911.514.315.114.4
13. Louisiana Monroe 0.20.20.61.32.12.63.64.86.07.99.912.114.217.417.2
14. Old Dominion 0.00.20.50.91.22.12.93.74.77.08.411.314.718.224.1






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Nov. 22 IUPUI 25.8% 68 75 74.2% Coastal Carolina
Nov. 22 North Carolina Central 37.7% 72 75 62.3% Georgia St.
Nov. 22 Louisiana Lafayette 21.4% 64 73 78.6% Liberty
Nov. 22 Louisiana Monroe 34.2% 69 73 65.8% Northwestern St.
Nov. 22 UC San Diego 55.8% 76 74 44.2% James Madison
Nov. 22 Princeton 66.0% 72 67 34.0% Texas St.
Nov. 23 Coastal Carolina 42.9% 68 70 57.1% Alabama A&M
Nov. 23 West Georgia 15.1% 72 85 84.9% Georgia Southern
Nov. 23 North Alabama 73.7% 79 71 26.3% Louisiana Monroe
Nov. 23 Marshall 4.6% 64 86 95.4% Purdue
Nov. 24 William & Mary 35.3% 72 76 64.7% Appalachian St.
Nov. 24 Old Dominion 14.7% 66 78 85.3% Boston College
Nov. 24 Southern Miss 22.0% 69 78 78.0% Montana St.
Nov. 25 Southern Miss 42.6% 71 73 57.4% Abilene Christian
Nov. 25 Incarnate Word 18.7% 67 77 81.3% South Alabama
Nov. 25 UTSA 17.8% 71 82 82.2% Troy
Nov. 26 Western Illinois 14.3% 59 71 85.7% South Alabama
Nov. 26 Austin Peay 48.9% 74 75 51.1% Georgia St.
Nov. 27 Sam Houston St. 71.4% 75 69 28.6% Appalachian St.
Nov. 27 South Carolina St. 15.1% 68 80 84.9% Marshall
Nov. 27 Georgia St. 44.6% 75 76 55.4% Tulsa