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NCAA Tournament

Southern

Updated with games through Monday, March 17

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Southern		Current Record		Projected Record		Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
	Team	Conf.	Overall	Conf.	Overall	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th
1.	Chattanooga (124)	15 - 3	22 - 9	15.0 - 3.0	22.0 - 9.0	100.0
2.	UNC Greensboro (135)	13 - 5	17 - 12	13.0 - 5.0	17.0 - 12.0		100.0
3.	East Tennessee St. (140)	12 - 6	17 - 13	12.0 - 6.0	17.0 - 13.0			100.0
4.	Samford (134)	12 - 6	20 - 10	12.0 - 6.0	20.0 - 10.0				100.0
5.	Furman (128)	11 - 7	22 - 9	11.0 - 7.0	22.0 - 9.0					100.0
6.	Wofford (121)	10 - 8	17 - 15	10.0 - 8.0	17.0 - 15.0						100.0
7.	VMI (292)	7 - 11	11 - 19	7.0 - 11.0	11.0 - 19.0							100.0
8.	Mercer (254)	6 - 12	12 - 19	6.0 - 12.0	12.0 - 19.0								100.0
9.	Western Carolina (340)	4 - 14	5 - 22	4.0 - 14.0	5.0 - 22.0									100.0
10.	The Citadel (357)	0 - 18	1 - 25	0.0 - 18.0	1.0 - 25.0										100.0
Weekly Changes
1.	Chattanooga (124)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
2.	UNC Greensboro (135)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
3.	East Tennessee St. (140)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
4.	Samford (134)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
5.	Furman (128)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
6.	Wofford (121)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
7.	VMI (292)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
8.	Mercer (254)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
9.	Western Carolina (340)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0
10.	The Citadel (357)					+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0	+0.0

This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

			Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
	Team	Outright	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th
1.	Chattanooga	100.0	100.0
2.	UNC Greensboro	0.0		100.0
3.	East Tennessee St.	0.0			100.0
4.	Samford	0.0			100.0
5.	Furman	0.0					100.0
6.	Wofford	0.0						100.0
7.	VMI	0.0							100.0
8.	Mercer	0.0								100.0
9.	Western Carolina	0.0									100.0
10.	The Citadel	0.0										100.0

This Week's Games

Date	Away	W Prob, Pred Score				Home
Mar. 18	Chattanooga	30.8%	74	79	69.2%	Middle Tennessee
Mar. 19	Furman	16.5%	58	68	83.5%	North Texas
Mar. 19	Samford	19.3%	67	77	80.7%	George Mason
Mar. 20	Tennessee	95.3%	76	57	4.7%	Wofford