Southern
Updated with games through Thursday, November 21
Conference Projections
Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the
Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.
| Southern |
Current Record |
Projected Record |
Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Conf. |
Overall |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th |
| 1. |
UNC Greensboro (115) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 2 |
12.2 - 5.8 |
17.8 - 10.2 |
30.7 | 21.7 | 15.7 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2. |
Samford (138) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
11.5 - 6.5 |
18.1 - 10.9 |
21.3 | 19.9 | 16.7 | 13.6 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3. |
Furman (140) |
0 - 0 |
3 - 0 |
11.5 - 6.5 |
18.1 - 9.9 |
20.7 | 19.3 | 17.1 | 13.3 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4. |
Wofford (173) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 3 |
10.1 - 7.9 |
13.7 - 15.3 |
10.3 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 14.8 | 13.6 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| 5. |
East Tennessee St. (193) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 2 |
9.5 - 8.5 |
14.1 - 14.9 |
6.5 | 8.9 | 12.7 | 13.6 | 14.1 | 13.3 | 12.5 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 3.2 |
| 6. |
Chattanooga (196) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 3 |
9.4 - 8.6 |
14.9 - 14.1 |
6.5 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 13.7 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 3.6 |
| 7. |
Mercer (242) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 3 |
8.0 - 10.0 |
11.7 - 16.3 |
2.4 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 14.6 | 15.7 | 15.3 | 12.2 | 7.8 |
| 8. |
Western Carolina (272) |
0 - 0 |
0 - 2 |
7.0 - 11.0 |
9.0 - 18.0 |
1.0 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 15.7 | 18.8 | 17.9 | 14.1 |
| 9. |
The Citadel (305) |
0 - 0 |
1 - 3 |
5.5 - 12.5 |
7.6 - 17.4 |
0.3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 16.3 | 23.4 | 32.7 |
| 10. |
VMI (331) |
0 - 0 |
2 - 2 |
5.2 - 12.8 |
8.6 - 18.4 |
0.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 15.9 | 26.1 | 34.9 |
This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.
|
Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers) |
|
Team |
Outright |
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th |
| 1. |
UNC Greensboro |
25.8 | 36.8 | 21.8 | 14.9 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2. |
Samford |
16.8 | 26.3 | 21.3 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3. |
Furman |
16.8 | 25.4 | 20.5 | 17.3 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4. |
Wofford |
7.9 | 13.6 | 14.4 | 14.0 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 5. |
East Tennessee St. |
4.8 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 13.8 | 14.2 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 6. |
Chattanooga |
4.7 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.7 |
| 7. |
Mercer |
1.6 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 14.8 | 15.2 | 13.9 | 10.3 | 5.6 |
| 8. |
Western Carolina |
0.6 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 16.3 | 17.6 | 16.0 | 10.9 |
| 9. |
The Citadel |
0.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 17.5 | 23.0 | 26.9 |
| 10. |
VMI |
0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 17.4 | 24.6 | 30.0 |
