Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

SEC

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

SEC Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th
1. Alabama (8) 0 - 0 7 - 2 11.8 - 4.2 22.5 - 7.5 29.422.715.911.57.64.92.91.81.20.70.70.40.20.10.10.0
2. Vanderbilt (10) 0 - 0 9 - 0 12.2 - 4.8 24.7 - 5.3 24.919.614.911.28.86.54.63.32.61.61.00.60.20.10.10.0
3. Florida (13) 0 - 0 5 - 4 12.0 - 6.0 20.7 - 10.3 15.515.614.112.110.28.26.85.53.92.91.91.61.00.50.20.1
4. Arkansas (23) 0 - 0 7 - 2 10.2 - 6.8 20.0 - 10.0 6.68.510.011.210.610.19.68.97.05.84.43.22.11.00.80.3
5. Auburn (22) 0 - 0 7 - 3 10.5 - 7.5 19.7 - 11.3 5.86.99.110.710.510.410.28.77.65.74.93.72.81.61.10.4
6. Georgia (24) 0 - 0 8 - 1 10.4 - 7.6 22.1 - 8.9 5.37.19.19.310.210.59.78.77.86.65.44.02.62.01.20.5
7. Kentucky (19) 0 - 0 6 - 4 10.3 - 7.7 18.4 - 12.6 4.66.78.69.810.811.010.29.48.16.65.43.82.51.60.80.4
8. Tennessee (20) 0 - 0 7 - 3 10.3 - 7.7 19.8 - 11.2 4.96.98.39.010.211.110.19.98.37.04.93.82.51.71.00.4
9. LSU (34) 0 - 0 8 - 1 9.1 - 8.9 20.5 - 10.5 1.53.04.45.97.38.69.710.010.49.78.57.05.44.32.81.5
10. Texas (44) 0 - 0 6 - 3 7.7 - 10.3 15.8 - 14.2 0.41.01.52.63.64.66.07.69.611.111.211.010.18.86.74.4
11. Missouri (49) 0 - 0 9 - 2 7.4 - 10.6 17.5 - 13.5 0.50.81.62.23.24.25.56.97.79.510.211.210.49.88.87.3
12. Oklahoma (52) 0 - 0 6 - 3 7.3 - 10.7 16.8 - 14.2 0.30.81.12.03.24.05.56.68.29.010.010.910.910.89.67.0
13. Texas A&M (64) 0 - 0 7 - 3 6.6 - 11.4 16.5 - 14.5 0.10.20.61.11.62.23.74.96.58.510.712.012.914.012.28.8
14. Mississippi (62) 0 - 0 5 - 4 6.2 - 11.8 14.3 - 16.7 0.10.20.40.81.32.12.74.15.36.99.411.113.314.314.513.5
15. Mississippi St. (82) 0 - 0 4 - 5 5.2 - 12.8 12.2 - 18.8 0.00.10.10.30.50.91.52.23.24.96.18.211.214.718.927.0
16. South Carolina (83) 0 - 0 6 - 3 4.9 - 13.1 14.0 - 17.0 0.00.10.20.30.30.61.21.82.53.65.67.611.714.921.328.2
Weekly Changes
1. Alabama (8) +7.4+3.7+1.0-0.7-2.0-1.9-1.7-1.4-1.1-1.2-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2-0.0+0.0
2. Vanderbilt (10) +5.5+3.7+1.4-0.5-1.0-1.2-1.9-1.9-1.2-1.1-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.2-0.0+0.0
3. Florida (13) +0.1+2.2+1.9+0.9+0.5-0.3-0.6-1.0-1.2-1.1-0.9-0.5+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
4. Arkansas (23) +1.2+1.8+1.6+2.7+1.2+0.1+0.7-0.5-1.3-2.2-1.5-1.3-1.1-1.2-0.4-0.0
5. Auburn (22) -2.1-2.9-0.8+0.3+0.4+0.3+0.8+0.3+0.3+0.1+0.7+0.6+0.9+0.3+0.5+0.2
6. Georgia (24) +0.6+1.0+2.3+1.2+1.2+0.8+0.4-0.7-1.2-1.3-1.5-1.2-0.9-0.1-0.3-0.3
7. Kentucky (19) -7.5-4.9-3.6-1.5+0.3+1.5+1.3+2.2+2.1+2.7+2.3+2.0+1.4+1.1+0.5+0.3
8. Tennessee (20) -2.7-1.7-0.9-0.9+0.1+0.9+0.2+1.0+0.7+1.0+0.2+0.6+0.5+0.5+0.3+0.2
9. LSU (34) -2.2-2.2-2.1-1.6-1.6-0.9+0.0+0.2+1.3+1.0+1.7+1.5+1.5+1.3+1.2+0.8
10. Texas (44) +0.2+0.5+0.7+1.5+1.9+1.9+2.2+2.1+2.7+2.1-0.1-1.7-3.1-4.1-3.8-3.1
11. Missouri (49) -0.5-0.9-0.8-1.4-0.9-1.2-1.3-1.2-1.7-0.1-0.6+1.3+1.3+2.2+3.1+2.8
12. Oklahoma (52) -0.2-0.2-0.6-0.2+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.7-0.4-0.8-0.9+0.0+0.5+1.2+1.4+1.5
13. Texas A&M (64) -0.1-0.3-0.1-0.3-0.8-0.6-0.8-0.4-1.2-0.6-0.4-1.1-0.3+1.7+2.7+2.5
14. Mississippi (62) +0.1+0.0+0.1+0.5+0.5+0.9+0.6+1.2+1.1+0.8+1.5+0.8-0.5-1.7-2.8-2.9
15. Mississippi St. (82) -0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.4+0.1-0.0-0.8-0.6-0.5-0.6+1.9
16. South Carolina (83) +0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.4+0.5+0.8+0.5+1.0+0.8+1.2-0.2-1.7-3.8


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th
1. Alabama 29.429.422.715.911.57.65.13.41.90.90.40.50.40.20.10.10.0
2. Vanderbilt 24.425.620.015.111.08.66.24.33.32.51.50.90.60.20.10.10.0
3. Florida 14.117.016.915.412.610.07.96.44.83.31.91.71.00.50.30.20.1
4. Arkansas 5.97.08.69.911.110.610.09.58.77.05.64.43.22.11.00.80.3
5. Auburn 5.07.08.210.611.611.010.69.98.46.65.14.12.72.01.20.70.2
6. Georgia 4.56.18.210.410.811.510.89.28.47.05.64.62.92.11.30.80.3
7. Kentucky 3.95.47.99.811.311.211.39.89.17.35.94.72.72.01.10.60.2
8. Tennessee 4.15.58.09.310.411.011.410.19.27.65.94.43.02.01.20.70.3
9. LSU 1.12.03.75.37.48.69.610.310.610.18.77.35.94.43.01.81.0
10. Texas 0.30.51.22.03.24.75.37.58.810.611.210.69.89.17.15.23.0
11. Missouri 0.40.61.22.02.94.25.26.47.88.810.010.910.39.88.56.84.7
12. Oklahoma 0.20.51.01.43.03.95.46.27.89.29.310.110.810.49.17.24.8
13. Texas A&M 0.10.10.30.91.32.23.14.66.27.69.211.112.012.412.19.96.7
14. Mississippi 0.10.10.20.61.11.82.83.54.96.77.810.111.912.713.012.510.1
15. Mississippi St. 0.00.00.10.20.50.61.51.92.94.35.87.39.412.714.917.320.6
16. South Carolina 0.00.00.10.20.30.50.91.42.33.34.96.98.612.316.019.423.0






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 12 Arizona 56.4% 91 89 43.6% Alabama
Dec. 12 Texas 8.5% 67 83 91.5% Connecticut
Dec. 13 Texas Tech 55.7% 77 76 44.3% Arkansas
Dec. 13 Chattanooga 3.2% 67 90 96.8% Auburn
Dec. 13 Central Arkansas 0.8% 61 96 99.2% Vanderbilt
Dec. 13 Georgia 80.5% 83 72 19.5% Cincinnati
Dec. 13 The Citadel 1.4% 58 85 98.6% South Carolina
Dec. 13 George Washington 15.2% 75 88 84.8% Florida
Dec. 13 Indiana 34.0% 77 81 66.0% Kentucky
Dec. 13 SMU 50.0% 78 79 50.0% LSU
Dec. 13 Southern Miss 14.2% 66 78 85.8% Mississippi
Dec. 13 Utah 43.8% 78 80 56.2% Mississippi St.
Dec. 13 Oklahoma St. 43.4% 82 84 56.6% Oklahoma
Dec. 13 Alabama 43.6% 89 91 56.4% Arizona
Dec. 14 Bethune Cookman 5.3% 67 87 94.7% Missouri
Dec. 14 Jacksonville 4.4% 63 84 95.6% Texas A&M
Dec. 16 Queens 2.9% 69 95 97.1% Arkansas
Dec. 16 South Carolina 13.8% 65 77 86.2% Clemson
Dec. 16 Le Moyne 2.0% 69 95 98.0% Texas
Dec. 16 LIU Brooklyn 10.1% 68 84 89.9% Mississippi St.
Dec. 16 Louisville 42.0% 76 79 58.0% Tennessee
Dec. 16 UMKC 2.3% 60 86 97.7% Oklahoma
Dec. 17 South Florida 6.2% 79 101 93.8% Alabama
Dec. 17 Mississippi 95.7% 80 59 4.3% Alabama A&M
Dec. 17 St. Francis PA 0.2% 54 99 99.8% Florida
Dec. 17 Vanderbilt 82.9% 86 74 17.1% Memphis
Dec. 18 Western Carolina 1.7% 67 98 98.3% Georgia