Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

SEC

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

SEC Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th
1. Florida (13) 5 - 2 14 - 6 12.8 - 5.2 21.8 - 9.2 37.220.814.09.26.34.83.32.21.40.80.20.00.0
2. Arkansas (19) 6 - 2 16 - 5 12.7 - 5.3 22.7 - 8.3 28.423.915.711.57.85.23.22.11.30.60.20.0
3. Vanderbilt (11) 5 - 3 18 - 3 12.3 - 5.7 25.3 - 5.7 13.121.321.416.210.47.14.33.11.70.90.30.1
4. Alabama (18) 4 - 3 14 - 6 11.1 - 6.9 21.1 - 9.9 5.88.611.513.714.113.510.78.96.24.02.10.70.20.1
5. Texas A&M (43) 6 - 1 16 - 4 10.7 - 7.3 20.7 - 10.3 3.45.37.811.413.814.113.211.88.76.13.01.10.30.0
6. Tennessee (23) 3 - 3 13 - 6 11.1 - 7.9 21.1 - 10.9 4.36.89.010.811.111.811.710.49.87.53.91.90.60.20.00.0
7. Auburn (27) 4 - 3 13 - 7 10.4 - 7.6 19.4 - 11.6 3.85.57.38.710.711.513.412.910.87.94.71.90.60.10.10.0
8. Georgia (32) 4 - 3 16 - 4 10.6 - 8.4 22.6 - 9.4 2.24.36.48.611.011.011.712.312.010.46.12.61.00.30.1
9. Kentucky (33) 5 - 3 14 - 7 9.8 - 8.2 18.8 - 12.2 1.32.44.35.98.510.912.815.015.612.76.92.60.70.40.1
10. Texas (35) 3 - 4 11 - 8 9.1 - 8.9 17.1 - 12.9 0.41.12.13.45.07.410.012.415.417.413.27.03.11.40.50.2
11. Missouri (69) 4 - 4 14 - 7 7.6 - 10.4 17.6 - 13.4 0.00.10.30.50.92.13.95.79.313.518.418.013.48.14.11.5
12. LSU (44) 1 - 6 13 - 7 6.4 - 11.6 18.4 - 12.6 0.00.10.20.41.11.94.28.015.420.018.614.510.15.6
13. Mississippi (80) 3 - 4 11 - 9 6.2 - 11.8 14.2 - 16.8 0.00.00.00.10.40.81.95.513.120.923.317.510.26.2
14. South Carolina (86) 2 - 5 11 - 9 5.3 - 12.7 14.3 - 16.7 0.00.10.41.22.87.413.418.724.420.211.3
15. Mississippi St. (102) 2 - 5 10 - 10 4.6 - 13.4 12.6 - 18.4 0.00.00.10.31.23.16.211.419.731.126.9
16. Oklahoma (67) 1 - 7 11 - 10 4.2 - 13.8 14.2 - 16.8 0.00.10.30.62.03.58.113.423.748.2
Weekly Changes
1. Florida (13) -22.8+1.8+4.7+4.1+3.4+3.2+2.2+1.6+1.1+0.6+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Arkansas (19) +13.1-0.5-3.3-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.3-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0
3. Vanderbilt (11) +9.0+7.5+4.3-0.4-2.9-3.1-3.8-3.2-2.8-2.3-1.2-0.7-0.3-0.1-0.0-0.0
4. Alabama (18) -4.0-8.0-4.5-0.9+1.2+3.7+3.7+3.5+2.6+1.8+0.9+0.1-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0
5. Texas A&M (43) +1.8+2.2+2.5+3.5+3.7+1.5-0.1-1.3-3.2-2.3-2.9-2.3-1.5-0.9-0.4-0.1
6. Tennessee (23) +3.5+2.7+2.3+2.2+0.1-0.3-0.9-1.7-0.8-1.1-1.7-1.7-1.2-0.8-0.4-0.1
7. Auburn (27) +2.9+2.9+3.7+2.9+3.6+2.0+2.0+0.1-2.2-4.2-5.2-3.9-2.4-1.6-0.4-0.2
8. Georgia (32) -2.5-6.0-6.0-4.1-2.2-1.0+1.6+3.6+5.7+6.1+3.6+1.2+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.0
9. Kentucky (33) -0.9-2.4-3.0-3.3-2.8-1.5+0.3+3.6+5.8+4.7+1.4-0.6-0.7-0.3-0.1-0.1
10. Texas (35) -0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.2+0.9+1.6+1.8+3.4+3.0+0.4-3.1-3.4-2.1-1.7-0.8
11. Missouri (69) -0.1-0.1-0.5-0.9-1.6-2.0-2.4-2.4-1.4+1.1+5.1+6.0+3.0-0.2-1.6-1.9
12. LSU (44) +0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-1.4-1.3+0.0+3.4+4.8+2.1-0.9-1.6-3.3
13. Mississippi (80) -0.0-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.4-0.9-1.4-2.5-1.9+0.7+3.4+4.6+2.0-1.6-1.5
14. South Carolina (86) +0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.5-1.0-1.3-0.1+2.2+2.7+3.8-0.4-4.7
15. Mississippi St. (102) +0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.2-0.3-0.5-1.1-1.7-2.2-2.5-2.4-1.3+1.2+6.5+4.8
16. Oklahoma (67) +0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.5-1.2-1.6-1.7-2.7-1.6+0.2+1.7+8.0


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th
1. Florida 25.343.620.414.18.05.73.72.21.40.60.30.00.0
2. Arkansas 20.638.323.215.09.75.93.42.21.30.70.30.10.0
3. Vanderbilt 11.326.423.118.212.58.04.93.32.10.90.40.10.0
4. Alabama 3.19.211.112.814.213.812.29.97.45.22.81.00.30.10.0
5. Texas A&M 2.16.18.69.812.413.513.012.59.87.34.51.90.50.10.0
6. Tennessee 4.34.47.29.311.411.811.811.510.09.46.83.71.90.60.20.00.0
7. Auburn 1.44.66.39.010.112.612.813.611.29.16.52.81.10.20.10.00.0
8. Georgia 2.22.34.36.68.711.111.111.911.911.810.36.02.51.00.30.1
9. Kentucky 0.62.43.96.47.410.211.213.513.614.010.84.41.50.40.10.0
10. Texas 0.10.71.62.74.56.69.212.413.516.315.99.64.61.80.60.10.1
11. Missouri 0.00.10.10.40.71.52.74.56.910.516.825.316.88.33.61.40.4
12. LSU 0.00.00.00.10.10.20.91.62.85.29.617.422.617.611.36.73.6
13. Mississippi 0.00.00.00.10.40.71.43.17.215.522.923.415.37.42.7
14. South Carolina 0.00.00.10.20.71.53.78.915.020.022.817.69.4
15. Mississippi St. 0.00.00.00.10.20.61.85.39.614.920.525.521.5
16. Oklahoma 0.00.00.00.00.10.41.13.06.212.018.927.730.5






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 27 Tennessee 43.5% 80 81 56.5% Georgia
Jan. 28 Texas 29.3% 79 85 70.7% Auburn
Jan. 28 Florida 79.6% 80 70 20.4% South Carolina
Jan. 28 Mississippi St. 15.6% 71 83 84.4% LSU
Jan. 28 Tennessee 43.5% 80 81 56.5% Georgia
Jan. 31 Kentucky 24.2% 79 88 75.8% Arkansas
Jan. 31 Auburn 31.8% 74 79 68.2% Tennessee
Jan. 31 Texas A&M 26.8% 86 94 73.2% Georgia
Jan. 31 LSU 55.8% 75 74 44.2% South Carolina
Jan. 31 Vanderbilt 79.7% 81 72 20.3% Mississippi
Jan. 31 Mississippi St. 25.0% 71 79 75.0% Missouri
Jan. 31 Texas 56.6% 82 80 43.4% Oklahoma
Feb. 01 Alabama 31.8% 85 90 68.2% Florida
Feb. 03 Texas A&M 17.2% 86 99 82.8% Alabama
Feb. 03 Mississippi 10.5% 63 77 89.5% Tennessee
Feb. 03 South Carolina 14.2% 70 82 85.8% Texas