Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

SEC

Updated with games through Thursday, November 21

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

SEC Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th
1. Auburn (3) 0 - 0 4 - 0 13.9 - 4.1 23.5 - 5.5 34.223.215.910.96.13.92.51.50.70.60.30.10.10.00.0
2. Tennessee (4) 0 - 0 5 - 0 12.8 - 4.2 25.0 - 5.0 22.924.318.712.58.35.43.31.81.30.70.40.20.10.00.0
3. Alabama (5) 0 - 0 4 - 1 13.3 - 4.7 23.8 - 7.2 24.821.218.412.68.25.33.82.41.60.80.50.20.10.10.00.0
4. Texas A&M (16) 0 - 0 4 - 1 11.3 - 6.7 21.4 - 9.6 8.010.813.513.111.210.28.36.45.33.93.22.41.61.20.60.3
5. Kentucky (17) 0 - 0 4 - 0 10.1 - 7.9 21.0 - 10.0 4.15.98.410.611.310.99.98.47.66.84.93.53.42.41.50.7
6. Florida (25) 0 - 0 5 - 0 9.3 - 8.7 19.7 - 10.3 1.43.45.07.310.010.010.39.69.48.17.25.84.63.62.71.5
7. Texas (24) 0 - 0 4 - 1 9.0 - 9.0 19.7 - 11.3 1.93.34.96.67.99.09.39.18.78.37.46.76.24.93.62.3
8. Missouri (33) 0 - 0 3 - 1 8.8 - 9.2 19.4 - 11.6 0.92.14.16.18.19.38.78.98.98.88.27.66.55.14.32.4
9. Mississippi St. (39) 0 - 0 4 - 0 8.1 - 9.9 17.6 - 12.4 0.51.42.84.66.27.07.69.29.08.69.08.58.66.96.14.1
10. Oklahoma (34) 0 - 0 4 - 0 7.9 - 10.1 17.5 - 11.5 0.41.32.14.05.46.88.18.88.89.19.69.28.47.56.24.3
11. Arkansas (45) 0 - 0 3 - 1 7.9 - 10.1 17.2 - 12.8 0.41.32.34.15.56.58.48.78.99.39.29.08.07.16.64.9
12. Mississippi (44) 0 - 0 5 - 0 7.7 - 10.3 17.8 - 12.2 0.31.02.13.95.36.27.18.28.98.79.69.28.98.06.85.9
13. Georgia (65) 0 - 0 5 - 0 6.7 - 11.3 17.2 - 13.8 0.10.30.71.52.43.65.06.47.38.69.711.011.011.911.29.4
14. LSU (64) 0 - 0 4 - 0 6.5 - 11.5 16.8 - 13.2 0.10.40.81.42.53.34.25.16.68.38.910.711.512.912.710.6
15. South Carolina (84) 0 - 0 3 - 2 4.9 - 12.1 12.7 - 16.3 0.10.10.20.71.01.62.13.24.25.86.78.410.813.618.223.2
16. Vanderbilt (81) 0 - 0 5 - 0 4.8 - 13.2 14.9 - 15.1 0.00.00.10.40.40.91.52.42.93.55.37.610.214.819.630.5


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th
1. Auburn 30.339.423.815.39.34.93.01.91.00.50.30.20.10.10.0
2. Tennessee 22.922.924.318.812.58.35.43.31.71.30.70.40.20.10.00.0
3. Alabama 21.328.723.018.111.96.84.33.11.81.10.60.30.10.10.10.0
4. Texas A&M 5.910.012.614.814.511.99.47.15.64.43.02.61.71.20.70.40.2
5. Kentucky 2.74.97.19.911.712.211.29.88.26.55.73.93.12.51.91.00.5
6. Florida 1.02.24.26.38.611.610.810.19.68.97.36.14.73.63.02.01.0
7. Texas 1.32.34.15.88.09.19.69.49.18.77.77.25.75.04.02.71.7
8. Missouri 0.61.32.85.37.79.410.19.48.89.28.57.16.75.14.23.01.7
9. Mississippi St. 0.30.71.83.55.77.07.88.89.59.38.68.88.07.35.74.72.8
10. Oklahoma 0.30.71.63.14.96.67.99.29.08.99.19.18.07.36.35.13.3
11. Arkansas 0.30.81.63.05.36.77.78.68.99.29.09.27.57.36.55.13.8
12. Mississippi 0.20.51.53.04.86.36.68.28.69.29.09.38.67.76.85.94.2
13. Georgia 0.10.20.51.01.93.44.36.46.97.99.210.310.210.410.49.67.4
14. LSU 0.10.20.51.02.13.14.25.25.78.28.59.710.410.711.810.08.6
15. South Carolina 0.10.10.10.20.71.01.62.13.24.25.86.78.410.813.618.223.2
16. Vanderbilt 0.00.00.10.20.50.71.12.12.83.24.56.38.410.715.118.026.2






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Nov. 22 Little Rock 4.7% 65 86 95.3% Arkansas
Nov. 22 Southern Illinois 6.8% 67 85 93.2% Florida
Nov. 22 Jackson St. 0.9% 64 99 99.1% Kentucky
Nov. 22 Pittsburgh 79.8% 78 68 20.2% LSU
Nov. 22 Mississippi St. 42.7% 75 77 57.3% SMU
Nov. 22 Pacific 2.5% 65 92 97.5% Missouri
Nov. 22 Baylor 35.4% 75 79 64.6% Tennessee
Nov. 22 Saint Joseph's 14.1% 69 82 85.9% Texas
Nov. 22 Seton Hall 47.2% 67 68 52.8% Vanderbilt
Nov. 23 Marquette 78.6% 79 70 21.4% Georgia
Nov. 24 Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.0% 67 100 99.0% Missouri
Nov. 24 St. John's 65.2% 79 75 34.8% Georgia
Nov. 25 Md Eastern Shore 1.0% 56 88 99.0% Arkansas
Nov. 25 Iowa St. 30.2% 69 75 69.8% Auburn
Nov. 25 Xavier 67.2% 75 70 32.8% South Carolina
Nov. 26 Houston 52.6% 77 76 47.4% Alabama
Nov. 26 Western Kentucky 5.9% 70 91 94.1% Kentucky
Nov. 26 Texas A&M 69.5% 78 72 30.5% Oregon
Nov. 27 Rutgers 9.8% 72 89 90.2% Alabama
Nov. 27 Texas A&M 59.6% 76 74 40.4% Creighton
Nov. 27 Lindenwood 0.8% 60 93 99.2% Missouri
Nov. 27 Providence 38.4% 65 68 61.6% Oklahoma
Nov. 27 Tennessee Martin 0.7% 60 96 99.3% Tennessee
Nov. 28 Illinois 46.4% 79 80 53.6% Arkansas
Nov. 28 Mississippi 48.2% 79 80 51.8% BYU
Nov. 28 Wake Forest 18.8% 72 83 81.2% Florida
Nov. 28 UNLV 28.4% 68 74 71.6% Mississippi St.