Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Southwest

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Southwest Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Alabama St. (224) 0 - 0 2 - 7 11.6 - 5.4 13.9 - 15.1 26.021.016.211.58.86.14.62.71.80.90.40.0
2. Bethune Cookman (227) 0 - 0 2 - 6 12.3 - 5.7 14.5 - 15.5 27.420.415.611.68.56.14.02.91.71.20.50.0
3. Southern (244) 0 - 0 1 - 6 12.0 - 7.0 13.2 - 15.8 16.916.115.113.010.18.77.85.03.72.21.20.1
4. Texas Southern (285) 0 - 0 0 - 6 10.9 - 7.1 11.6 - 15.4 10.913.415.013.712.110.58.06.44.83.11.90.2
5. Grambling St. (279) 0 - 0 2 - 6 9.0 - 7.0 11.9 - 15.1 8.610.311.212.211.910.59.18.67.85.83.80.3
6. Prairie View A&M (314) 0 - 0 1 - 5 8.0 - 7.0 9.3 - 14.7 4.66.98.811.613.212.010.810.79.66.84.50.6
7. Arkansas Pine Bluff (323) 0 - 0 1 - 10 8.1 - 8.9 9.1 - 18.9 1.73.85.67.09.811.213.213.212.411.88.81.5
8. Alabama A&M (326) 0 - 0 3 - 4 8.1 - 9.9 12.0 - 16.0 1.42.74.15.88.210.012.213.014.114.611.52.4
9. Alcorn St. (343) 0 - 0 1 - 9 8.1 - 10.9 9.1 - 21.9 0.82.13.14.75.89.211.712.713.715.816.24.1
10. Jackson St. (347) 0 - 0 1 - 8 7.4 - 10.6 8.9 - 22.1 0.71.42.74.15.87.89.612.315.118.218.24.1
11. Florida A&M (340) 0 - 0 0 - 5 6.1 - 8.9 6.7 - 17.3 1.11.82.64.75.97.78.812.113.915.820.25.5
12. Mississippi Valley St. (365) 0 - 0 0 - 10 2.5 - 15.5 2.6 - 29.4 0.00.00.10.10.41.53.713.081.1
Weekly Changes
1. Alabama St. (224) +9.0+3.4+0.2-2.0-2.2-2.3-1.7-1.7-1.2-0.9-0.5-0.1
2. Bethune Cookman (227) -3.7-0.3+0.5+1.0+1.1+0.5+0.4+0.2+0.0+0.2+0.2-0.0
3. Southern (244) -6.0-2.0+0.0+0.7+1.4+0.8+1.8+1.2+1.0+0.7+0.4+0.0
4. Texas Southern (285) +0.7-0.2+0.1-0.2+0.3+0.6-0.2+0.0+0.1-0.6-0.4-0.3
5. Grambling St. (279) +2.4+1.4+2.5+1.9+1.2-0.0-0.8-1.9-1.9-1.8-2.2-0.7
6. Prairie View A&M (314) -1.8-1.5-1.3-0.4+0.2+0.8+0.7+0.8+1.5+0.6+0.7-0.3
7. Arkansas Pine Bluff (323) +0.9+1.8+2.5+2.1+3.5+2.3+2.1+1.4-2.1-4.2-6.7-3.6
8. Alabama A&M (326) -0.6-0.5-1.5-1.1-0.6-0.3-0.3+0.2+1.4+2.1+1.7-0.5
9. Alcorn St. (343) -0.5-0.4-0.4-0.3-1.8-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.7+1.9+1.8-1.1
10. Jackson St. (347) -0.6-1.6-1.8-1.7-2.1-2.1-1.5+0.3+1.5+4.1+5.6-0.1
11. Florida A&M (340) +0.2-0.1-0.6+0.0-0.8+0.1-0.1+0.1+0.2+0.6+2.2-1.8
12. Mississippi Valley St. (365) +0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.5-0.8-1.2-2.7-2.7+8.3


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Alabama St. 25.826.221.316.211.68.66.04.42.71.70.90.30.0
2. Bethune Cookman 25.728.321.015.911.18.45.93.92.61.41.10.4
3. Southern 16.817.016.315.113.210.18.97.75.03.52.01.20.1
4. Texas Southern 10.112.314.415.413.112.210.17.55.84.62.91.50.1
5. Grambling St. 8.68.610.311.212.212.311.38.87.87.55.83.80.3
6. Prairie View A&M 4.54.77.89.311.013.112.110.810.99.66.53.60.6
7. Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.51.94.15.77.29.711.213.013.012.311.78.81.5
8. Alabama A&M 1.21.83.04.36.28.910.311.712.914.514.310.51.7
9. Alcorn St. 0.70.92.13.24.95.89.311.712.513.515.816.24.1
10. Jackson St. 0.60.81.63.24.36.48.110.012.415.817.716.73.0
11. Florida A&M 1.01.12.12.84.66.07.88.912.514.415.618.85.4
12. Mississippi Valley St. 0.00.00.00.10.20.51.94.113.779.4






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 13 Jackson St. 1.5% 58 87 98.5% Northwestern
Dec. 13 Prairie View A&M 25.1% 80 89 74.9% South Dakota
Dec. 14 Bethune Cookman 5.3% 67 87 94.7% Missouri
Dec. 14 Texas Southern 6.8% 59 77 93.2% Minnesota
Dec. 15 North Alabama 61.8% 71 68 38.2% Alabama A&M
Dec. 16 Southern 12.2% 67 81 87.8% California Baptist
Dec. 16 Tarleton St. 92.7% 82 65 7.3% Mississippi Valley St.
Dec. 17 Mississippi 95.7% 80 59 4.3% Alabama A&M
Dec. 17 Alabama St. 9.4% 64 80 90.6% Cincinnati
Dec. 17 Bethune Cookman 4.4% 66 88 95.6% Saint Louis
Dec. 17 Jacksonville 55.3% 70 69 44.7% Florida A&M
Dec. 17 Texas Southern 1.7% 63 93 98.3% North Carolina St.
Dec. 18 Norfolk St. 56.0% 65 64 44.0% Grambling St.
Dec. 18 Jackson St. 22.2% 67 75 77.8% Hampton