Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Southwest

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Southwest Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Bethune Cookman (265) 6 - 1 8 - 11 12.7 - 5.3 14.7 - 15.3 51.021.411.17.23.82.81.40.80.40.20.1
2. Southern (260) 3 - 3 4 - 12 12.1 - 6.9 13.1 - 15.9 21.626.616.910.77.45.34.93.41.91.00.3
3. Florida A&M (330) 5 - 2 6 - 10 9.2 - 6.8 10.2 - 14.8 9.412.815.415.612.09.28.16.35.14.41.7
4. Arkansas Pine Bluff (314) 4 - 3 5 - 13 10.3 - 7.7 11.3 - 17.7 3.510.915.815.515.011.99.77.85.43.11.7
5. Grambling St. (280) 2 - 3 6 - 10 8.7 - 7.3 12.7 - 14.3 5.68.511.512.612.09.69.17.67.99.26.40.0
6. Alabama A&M (308) 4 - 3 8 - 9 9.7 - 8.3 13.7 - 14.3 4.26.78.59.711.712.712.912.310.07.73.6
7. Jackson St. (350) 5 - 2 6 - 14 9.8 - 9.2 10.8 - 21.2 2.35.87.58.88.911.614.814.211.59.55.10.0
8. Texas Southern (321) 4 - 4 4 - 13 9.3 - 8.7 9.3 - 17.7 1.44.06.79.112.013.913.413.211.99.74.60.0
9. Prairie View A&M (324) 3 - 5 4 - 13 7.1 - 7.9 8.1 - 15.9 0.30.92.65.09.111.710.513.918.717.210.10.0
10. Alabama St. (310) 3 - 4 5 - 14 8.0 - 9.0 10.0 - 19.0 0.72.33.55.06.68.911.114.217.219.510.90.0
11. Alcorn St. (354) 2 - 5 3 - 16 6.7 - 11.3 7.7 - 22.3 0.00.20.40.91.52.54.16.310.118.554.41.2
12. Mississippi Valley St. (365) 0 - 6 0 - 20 1.6 - 16.4 1.6 - 30.4 0.11.298.7
Weekly Changes
1. Bethune Cookman (265) +24.8-0.3-5.1-5.0-4.3-3.5-2.9-1.8-1.1-0.6-0.2+0.0
2. Southern (260) -10.4+6.0+1.3-0.1+0.2-0.6+1.3+1.2+0.7+0.3+0.1+0.0
3. Florida A&M (330) -9.6-6.4-0.8+2.9+1.6+2.4+2.9+2.0+2.1+2.4+0.6+0.0
4. Arkansas Pine Bluff (314) +1.5+6.9+8.1+4.8+2.0-3.1-4.5-4.2-5.2-4.1-2.1-0.0
5. Grambling St. (280) +0.7-1.2-0.2-0.7-2.2-1.3-1.0-0.9+0.8+3.3+2.7-0.0
6. Alabama A&M (308) +1.7+2.7+2.3+2.0+2.5+0.5+0.1-1.3-2.3-3.7-4.6-0.0
7. Jackson St. (350) +0.1+1.7+2.2+2.2+1.1+1.0-1.3-1.7-2.2-1.2-1.7-0.1
8. Texas Southern (321) +1.1+3.4+5.1+6.7+7.8+7.9+4.0+0.0-4.9-12.3-18.7-0.2
9. Prairie View A&M (324) -9.3-12.4-11.9-11.7-6.5+0.5+4.2+8.9+14.5+14.7+9.0+0.0
10. Alabama St. (310) -0.5-0.2-0.4-0.6-1.1-1.8-0.7+1.2+1.0+3.7-0.5-0.1
11. Alcorn St. (354) -0.1-0.2-0.5-0.6-1.0-2.0-2.2-3.3-3.4-2.4+15.6+0.2
12. Mississippi Valley St. (365) +0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.2


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Bethune Cookman 48.152.721.711.26.33.62.41.10.50.30.10.0
2. Southern 21.322.027.116.710.97.25.24.83.01.80.90.3
3. Florida A&M 8.69.412.815.415.712.610.68.04.94.64.31.7
4. Arkansas Pine Bluff 3.36.011.915.415.715.213.09.25.54.02.91.2
5. Grambling St. 5.66.59.712.712.811.310.38.75.97.38.66.10.0
6. Alabama A&M 3.04.87.99.811.213.414.512.49.38.66.31.8
7. Jackson St. 1.82.66.47.48.68.811.714.714.011.39.55.00.0
8. Texas Southern 0.91.84.87.810.213.214.812.710.810.69.33.90.0
9. Prairie View A&M 0.10.41.02.55.09.111.710.513.918.818.09.10.0
10. Alabama St. 0.70.72.33.55.06.68.911.114.217.219.510.90.0
11. Alcorn St. 0.00.00.20.41.12.03.44.46.310.118.952.70.5
12. Mississippi Valley St. 0.00.00.11.698.3






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 27 Arkansas Pine Bluff 24.8% 72 80 75.2% Grambling St.
Jan. 27 Mississippi Valley St. 3.2% 61 85 96.8% Southern
Jan. 28 Jackson St. 23.6% 69 78 76.4% Florida A&M
Jan. 28 Arkansas Pine Bluff 24.8% 72 80 75.2% Grambling St.
Jan. 28 Mississippi Valley St. 3.2% 61 85 96.8% Southern
Jan. 31 Florida A&M 29.4% 66 72 70.6% Alabama A&M
Jan. 31 Bethune Cookman 47.7% 77 78 52.3% Alabama St.
Jan. 31 Southern 70.3% 80 74 29.7% Alcorn St.
Jan. 31 Arkansas Pine Bluff 82.4% 81 70 17.6% Mississippi Valley St.
Jan. 31 Grambling St. 65.5% 77 72 34.5% Jackson St.
Jan. 31 Texas Southern 35.9% 79 84 64.1% Prairie View A&M
Feb. 02 Bethune Cookman 47.5% 72 73 52.5% Alabama A&M
Feb. 02 Florida A&M 29.6% 71 77 70.4% Alabama St.
Feb. 02 Grambling St. 66.9% 76 71 33.1% Alcorn St.
Feb. 02 Southern 69.0% 81 75 31.0% Jackson St.