Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Southwest

Updated with games through Thursday, November 21

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Southwest Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Southern (246) 0 - 0 0 - 4 11.8 - 6.2 12.7 - 15.3 24.718.114.410.48.96.95.54.53.02.11.30.3
2. Texas Southern (269) 0 - 0 0 - 4 11.6 - 6.4 12.7 - 15.3 20.617.613.912.310.48.05.74.73.22.11.00.3
3. Grambling St. (266) 0 - 0 0 - 3 11.1 - 6.9 13.5 - 14.5 18.215.513.811.210.08.66.95.94.43.22.00.4
4. Alabama St. (288) 0 - 0 0 - 2 10.8 - 7.2 14.0 - 16.0 14.014.013.212.110.69.37.76.65.44.22.50.6
5. Bethune Cookman (319) 0 - 0 1 - 4 9.3 - 8.7 11.1 - 18.9 5.27.78.410.09.810.810.910.210.28.96.41.4
6. Jackson St. (334) 0 - 0 0 - 5 9.3 - 8.7 9.9 - 20.1 4.47.08.99.910.710.310.810.49.58.86.92.3
7. Prairie View A&M (340) 0 - 0 0 - 4 8.7 - 9.3 9.3 - 20.7 3.84.87.18.19.410.211.211.211.610.49.03.1
8. Alabama A&M (342) 0 - 0 0 - 2 8.6 - 9.4 11.3 - 16.7 3.25.36.17.88.69.811.111.511.911.010.03.7
9. Alcorn St. (351) 0 - 0 0 - 4 8.5 - 9.5 9.0 - 21.0 2.74.36.07.79.09.910.411.212.011.910.84.1
10. Florida A&M (345) 0 - 0 0 - 4 8.1 - 9.9 9.0 - 18.0 2.23.75.36.27.59.010.712.012.513.913.33.7
11. Arkansas Pine Bluff (356) 0 - 0 0 - 5 7.0 - 11.0 8.2 - 20.8 1.02.02.84.05.16.78.110.213.216.520.79.6
12. Mississippi Valley St. (364) 0 - 0 0 - 4 3.2 - 14.8 3.3 - 26.7 0.00.00.10.10.20.41.01.63.16.916.170.6


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Southern 20.129.918.514.210.27.66.24.63.82.41.51.00.1
2. Texas Southern 16.826.618.614.211.88.96.75.03.42.41.50.70.2
3. Grambling St. 13.722.216.913.710.99.67.76.15.03.62.51.40.3
4. Alabama St. 10.317.516.314.112.19.78.57.25.34.13.21.80.3
5. Bethune Cookman 3.97.39.59.610.410.710.710.19.59.07.54.81.1
6. Jackson St. 3.36.58.910.210.810.810.810.29.48.47.25.21.5
7. Prairie View A&M 2.85.06.48.88.810.110.611.110.910.08.97.22.1
8. Alabama A&M 2.04.36.77.58.59.810.411.210.611.19.87.62.5
9. Alcorn St. 1.84.06.07.29.19.710.110.610.511.410.28.52.7
10. Florida A&M 1.63.34.86.47.18.59.710.411.612.012.311.22.6
11. Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.71.52.53.84.96.27.98.810.713.715.217.67.2
12. Mississippi Valley St. 0.00.00.00.10.20.30.71.21.94.18.718.464.2






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Nov. 22 South Carolina St. 46.7% 71 72 53.3% Alabama A&M
Nov. 22 Nebraska Omaha 56.3% 73 71 43.7% Alabama St.
Nov. 22 Alcorn St. 2.4% 60 86 97.6% Washington
Nov. 22 Jackson St. 0.9% 64 99 99.1% Kentucky
Nov. 23 Coastal Carolina 42.9% 68 70 57.1% Alabama A&M
Nov. 23 Lamar 50.5% 71 70 49.5% Alabama St.
Nov. 23 Mississippi Valley St. 0.3% 52 92 99.7% BYU
Nov. 23 Prairie View A&M 8.2% 67 85 91.8% Northern Colorado
Nov. 24 Alabama St. 21.2% 64 73 78.8% Akron
Nov. 24 Alcorn St. 12.8% 64 77 87.2% UC Riverside
Nov. 24 Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.0% 67 100 99.0% Missouri
Nov. 24 Grambling St. 4.6% 59 80 95.4% USC
Nov. 24 Jackson St. 11.0% 70 85 89.0% Lipscomb
Nov. 24 Texas Southern 4.2% 64 88 95.8% New Mexico
Nov. 25 IUPUI 20.7% 67 77 79.3% Alabama A&M
Nov. 26 North Dakota 64.7% 73 68 35.3% Bethune Cookman
Nov. 26 Grambling St. 24.7% 66 74 75.3% Cal Poly
Nov. 26 Mississippi Valley St. 0.7% 54 89 99.3% Utah
Nov. 27 Alabama St. 1.2% 53 83 98.8% Cincinnati
Nov. 27 Arkansas Pine Bluff 18.2% 75 86 81.8% Pacific