Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Southland

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Southland Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. McNeese St. (67) 1 - 1 6 - 2 18.0 - 4.0 23.0 - 6.0 78.914.73.91.60.60.20.10.00.00.0
2. Stephen F. Austin (150) 1 - 0 6 - 2 14.3 - 7.7 19.3 - 9.7 11.832.219.312.08.45.93.82.91.81.00.50.3
3. UT Rio Grande Valley (170) 0 - 1 2 - 6 12.4 - 9.6 14.4 - 14.6 3.214.117.314.912.810.28.16.95.33.82.31.2
4. Incarnate Word (188) 1 - 2 2 - 5 11.6 - 10.4 13.4 - 14.6 1.49.613.714.613.711.810.08.86.45.23.31.6
5. New Orleans (202) 1 - 1 3 - 7 10.9 - 11.1 13.0 - 18.0 1.46.59.711.511.612.011.610.38.77.85.73.1
6. Tex A&M Corpus Chris (240) 1 - 0 1 - 5 10.7 - 11.3 10.7 - 16.3 0.96.68.510.110.711.311.610.69.78.66.84.5
7. Lamar (199) 0 - 1 3 - 4 10.6 - 11.4 14.3 - 14.7 1.05.78.89.611.010.911.211.110.59.26.84.3
8. Nicholls St. (247) 1 - 0 1 - 7 10.2 - 11.8 10.3 - 19.7 0.74.16.98.49.711.211.011.311.910.18.85.9
9. Houston Baptist (267) 1 - 0 3 - 4 9.8 - 12.2 11.8 - 17.2 0.43.55.57.89.110.011.111.412.211.510.07.5
10. Texas A&M Commerce (266) 0 - 0 3 - 4 9.1 - 12.9 12.2 - 17.8 0.32.54.45.57.08.310.211.112.213.613.211.8
11. Northwestern St. (304) 1 - 1 1 - 7 7.7 - 14.3 7.7 - 21.3 0.00.41.32.33.45.16.59.212.715.522.421.2
12. Southeastern Louisiana (298) 0 - 1 2 - 6 6.7 - 15.3 8.8 - 21.2 0.00.20.91.62.12.94.76.58.613.720.238.4
Weekly Changes
1. McNeese St. (67) +9.2-3.5-2.6-1.6-0.9-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Stephen F. Austin (150) +1.0+10.0-0.8-3.1-2.7-1.7-1.5-0.5-0.4-0.2-0.0-0.0
3. UT Rio Grande Valley (170) +0.9+6.3+6.2+1.1-0.7-2.4-3.0-2.9-2.0-1.4-1.3-0.8
4. Incarnate Word (188) -4.3-7.8-2.7-0.5+0.7+1.0+2.6+3.0+2.5+2.7+1.7+1.1
5. New Orleans (202) -3.4-7.2-5.5-2.7-1.6+0.6+2.3+3.5+3.9+4.2+3.7+2.2
6. Tex A&M Corpus Chris (240) +0.3+4.5+4.5+4.3+2.3+1.4+0.0-1.8-3.0-3.6-4.1-4.8
7. Lamar (199) -3.8-6.7-5.5-3.9-2.5-1.0+1.9+3.7+4.5+5.6+4.5+3.0
8. Nicholls St. (247) -0.2+0.8+0.9+0.7+0.1+0.5-2.0-1.0+0.3+0.0+0.1-0.4
9. Houston Baptist (267) +0.3+2.5+3.8+4.9+4.7+4.0+2.5+0.7-1.0-3.6-7.2-11.6
10. Texas A&M Commerce (266) +0.3+1.9+3.1+3.1+3.5+3.2+3.4+1.8-0.4-2.5-5.8-11.4
11. Northwestern St. (304) -0.1-0.1-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.8-1.5-1.0-0.2+0.3+4.6-0.8
12. Southeastern Louisiana (298) -0.2-0.8-1.3-1.9-2.7-4.6-4.5-5.4-4.4-1.4+3.9+23.4


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. McNeese St. 74.183.811.92.80.90.30.10.10.00.00.0
2. Stephen F. Austin 8.915.235.218.611.07.54.63.22.11.20.80.40.1
3. UT Rio Grande Valley 2.44.717.919.015.211.98.87.16.13.92.81.80.8
4. Incarnate Word 0.71.911.516.015.513.411.39.37.85.54.12.51.3
5. New Orleans 0.91.88.311.812.612.612.010.99.47.76.34.42.2
6. Tex A&M Corpus Chris 0.61.68.310.311.311.511.611.59.68.47.25.33.4
7. Lamar 0.61.47.810.511.111.111.511.110.09.67.55.23.2
8. Nicholls St. 0.41.05.48.69.710.911.411.211.110.39.37.04.2
9. Houston Baptist 0.30.74.77.28.810.210.211.511.311.79.98.45.4
10. Texas A&M Commerce 0.20.53.35.76.58.48.910.611.411.612.411.49.2
11. Northwestern St. 0.00.10.71.93.14.46.07.810.312.715.220.117.7
12. Southeastern Louisiana 0.00.10.41.32.02.63.85.47.310.114.320.732.0






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 12 Texas A&M Commerce 5.3% 60 79 94.7% McNeese St.
Dec. 13 Northwestern St. 3.0% 63 86 97.0% California
Dec. 13 New Orleans 2.0% 56 83 98.0% Houston
Dec. 13 Southeastern Louisiana 27.1% 63 70 72.9% Houston Baptist
Dec. 15 McNeese St. 84.0% 73 62 16.0% Houston Baptist
Dec. 15 Incarnate Word 6.5% 63 81 93.5% TCU
Dec. 15 Texas A&M Commerce 44.2% 67 69 55.8% Southeastern Louisiana
Dec. 16 UT Rio Grande Valley 42.0% 67 69 58.0% Lamar
Dec. 17 Houston Baptist 32.3% 67 72 67.7% Nicholls St.
Dec. 17 Tex A&M Corpus Chris 19.1% 62 72 80.9% Stephen F. Austin