Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Southland

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Southland Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Stephen F. Austin (95) 11 - 1 16 - 3 18.6 - 3.4 23.6 - 5.4 47.652.10.30.00.00.0
2. McNeese St. (54) 10 - 2 15 - 4 18.4 - 3.6 23.4 - 5.6 52.447.10.50.0
3. Tex A&M Corpus Chris (174) 7 - 5 7 - 10 13.0 - 9.0 13.0 - 14.0 0.645.227.414.37.73.70.80.20.10.0
4. UT Rio Grande Valley (157) 6 - 6 8 - 11 12.0 - 10.0 14.0 - 15.0 0.225.326.520.415.18.72.70.80.10.10.0
5. Nicholls St. (229) 7 - 5 7 - 13 11.1 - 10.9 11.1 - 18.9 0.112.715.118.120.019.28.93.81.50.50.1
6. New Orleans (201) 6 - 6 8 - 13 11.0 - 11.0 13.0 - 18.0 0.09.317.220.721.216.98.43.71.70.70.2
7. Lamar (198) 6 - 6 9 - 10 10.9 - 11.1 13.9 - 15.1 0.06.412.421.423.320.89.64.01.50.50.1
8. Northwestern St. (277) 4 - 7 4 - 14 7.7 - 13.3 7.7 - 20.3 0.10.61.84.69.621.921.718.713.27.8
9. Incarnate Word (237) 4 - 8 6 - 12 8.0 - 14.0 10.0 - 18.0 0.10.62.14.810.520.922.218.813.17.0
10. Texas A&M Commerce (291) 3 - 8 6 - 13 6.7 - 14.3 9.7 - 19.3 0.00.10.41.14.312.618.120.321.221.8
11. Southeastern Louisiana (261) 3 - 9 5 - 15 6.8 - 15.2 8.8 - 21.2 0.00.00.51.43.58.014.220.124.927.4
12. Houston Baptist (289) 4 - 8 6 - 13 6.8 - 15.2 8.8 - 20.2 0.10.31.02.76.311.217.125.635.7
Weekly Changes
1. Stephen F. Austin (95) +1.3+0.1-1.3-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. McNeese St. (54) -1.2+1.6-0.4-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
3. Tex A&M Corpus Chris (174) -0.1-0.5+6.4-3.4-0.7+0.3-0.3-1.0-0.6-0.1-0.0+0.0
4. UT Rio Grande Valley (157) +0.0+0.1+20.0+14.8+1.5-4.1-9.4-9.9-6.7-3.9-1.7-0.5
5. Nicholls St. (229) -0.1-1.0-25.5-10.3+1.9+9.8+14.5+6.2+2.7+1.3+0.5+0.1
6. New Orleans (201) +0.0-0.0+6.0+7.7+4.5+2.2-0.9-6.5-6.7-3.8-1.8-0.6
7. Lamar (198) +0.0-0.2-2.7-3.1+1.8+3.3+4.6-1.5-1.2-0.6-0.2-0.1
8. Northwestern St. (277) +0.0+0.0-0.1-0.3-0.7-0.7+0.7+7.4-0.2-2.1-2.6-1.4
9. Incarnate Word (237) +0.0-0.0-2.2-4.8-7.2-8.4-7.3+0.9+7.0+9.2+7.8+4.9
10. Texas A&M Commerce (291) +0.0+0.0-0.0-0.2-0.7-1.7-1.6+1.7+1.6-1.5-1.7+4.2
11. Southeastern Louisiana (261) +0.0+0.0-0.0-0.2+0.1+0.6+1.4+3.7+5.3+3.7-2.2-12.5
12. Houston Baptist (289) +0.0+0.0-0.0-0.2-0.5-1.2-1.7-0.9-1.4-2.1+2.0+5.9


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Stephen F. Austin 45.165.734.20.10.00.0
2. McNeese St. 34.354.944.90.20.0
3. Tex A&M Corpus Chris 0.00.11.161.121.99.14.21.90.50.10.00.0
4. UT Rio Grande Valley 0.00.230.931.518.410.95.51.80.60.10.00.0
5. Nicholls St. 0.00.115.718.822.019.914.05.92.50.70.20.1
6. New Orleans 0.00.013.518.821.320.515.46.72.51.00.30.1
7. Lamar 0.00.012.218.921.820.616.16.62.60.80.30.1
8. Northwestern St. 0.00.10.61.84.710.224.222.717.911.56.3
9. Incarnate Word 0.00.41.12.95.711.119.721.818.312.26.8
10. Texas A&M Commerce 0.00.00.10.51.24.413.418.420.220.521.4
11. Southeastern Louisiana 0.00.00.10.71.84.59.615.819.623.024.9
12. Houston Baptist 0.00.00.10.51.53.98.813.920.026.025.3






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 31 Houston Baptist 14.6% 60 71 85.4% Tex A&M Corpus Chris
Jan. 31 UT Rio Grande Valley 55.6% 72 70 44.4% Incarnate Word
Jan. 31 McNeese St. 77.6% 75 67 22.4% Lamar
Jan. 31 Northwestern St. 21.0% 74 83 79.0% New Orleans
Jan. 31 Nicholls St. 50.1% 75 74 49.9% Texas A&M Commerce
Jan. 31 Southeastern Louisiana 8.0% 58 74 92.0% Stephen F. Austin
Feb. 02 Houston Baptist 12.5% 63 76 87.5% UT Rio Grande Valley
Feb. 02 Incarnate Word 22.0% 63 71 78.0% Tex A&M Corpus Chris
Feb. 02 Southeastern Louisiana 22.3% 61 70 77.7% Lamar
Feb. 02 McNeese St. 51.3% 72 71 48.7% Stephen F. Austin
Feb. 02 New Orleans 57.4% 79 77 42.6% Texas A&M Commerce
Feb. 02 Nicholls St. 45.2% 75 76 54.8% Northwestern St.