Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Southland

Updated with games through Thursday, November 21

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Southland Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. McNeese St. (89) 0 - 0 1 - 2 16.0 - 4.0 19.3 - 7.7 57.720.910.55.52.91.20.70.30.20.10.0
2. Stephen F. Austin (167) 0 - 0 0 - 3 12.8 - 7.2 15.5 - 12.5 11.419.118.215.512.48.76.23.82.51.40.60.2
3. Nicholls St. (166) 0 - 0 1 - 4 12.8 - 7.2 14.5 - 13.5 11.618.417.915.711.89.36.54.02.61.40.60.1
4. Tex A&M Corpus Chris (178) 0 - 0 1 - 3 12.4 - 7.6 15.6 - 12.4 8.716.017.415.813.710.17.15.13.21.90.80.2
5. UT Rio Grande Valley (186) 0 - 0 2 - 3 12.3 - 7.7 15.8 - 11.2 7.715.616.716.014.010.57.65.53.41.80.80.3
6. Lamar (286) 0 - 0 0 - 2 8.8 - 11.2 10.6 - 17.4 0.82.44.47.18.811.412.913.513.412.98.53.8
7. Northwestern St. (301) 0 - 0 0 - 3 8.7 - 11.3 9.9 - 18.1 0.61.93.56.18.611.413.113.913.512.99.55.1
8. Texas A&M Commerce (302) 0 - 0 1 - 5 8.7 - 11.3 11.4 - 19.6 0.71.93.95.98.211.013.413.913.812.69.85.1
9. Incarnate Word (309) 0 - 0 2 - 1 8.6 - 11.4 11.6 - 15.4 0.61.93.66.08.610.812.513.814.012.510.35.5
10. Southeastern Louisiana (307) 0 - 0 1 - 2 8.4 - 11.6 10.4 - 17.6 0.31.63.15.18.110.812.214.114.513.710.85.8
11. Houston Baptist (354) 0 - 0 0 - 2 6.0 - 14.0 7.5 - 21.5 0.10.20.51.12.33.75.68.412.217.425.023.6
12. New Orleans (360) 0 - 0 1 - 4 4.4 - 15.6 5.5 - 25.5 0.00.10.20.61.12.33.96.811.623.350.1


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. McNeese St. 51.764.419.08.44.42.10.90.40.20.10.10.0
2. Stephen F. Austin 8.614.621.418.614.811.07.75.23.02.01.10.40.1
3. Nicholls St. 8.714.521.318.415.010.88.05.23.32.11.00.40.1
4. Tex A&M Corpus Chris 6.411.318.618.016.012.88.76.23.72.61.30.60.1
5. UT Rio Grande Valley 5.810.418.117.316.112.89.56.74.12.81.50.60.2
6. Lamar 0.41.23.35.58.49.412.013.413.312.911.26.72.9
7. Northwestern St. 0.40.82.84.57.410.112.313.513.712.511.37.53.6
8. Texas A&M Commerce 0.51.12.55.27.19.512.114.113.512.610.97.93.6
9. Incarnate Word 0.40.92.64.87.89.711.812.714.012.711.38.13.7
10. Southeastern Louisiana 0.20.72.43.86.79.411.313.013.614.012.48.84.0
11. Houston Baptist 0.00.10.40.81.72.94.57.09.713.217.223.818.8
12. New Orleans 0.00.10.10.40.81.62.84.88.013.224.444.0






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Nov. 22 Lamar 21.5% 69 78 78.5% Akron
Nov. 22 Rice 79.8% 76 66 20.2% Houston Baptist
Nov. 22 McNeese St. 67.7% 69 64 32.3% Illinois St.
Nov. 22 Incarnate Word 20.5% 68 78 79.5% Northern Arizona
Nov. 22 Louisiana Monroe 34.2% 69 73 65.8% Northwestern St.
Nov. 22 Monmouth 15.4% 63 75 84.6% Stephen F. Austin
Nov. 22 New Orleans 4.4% 67 90 95.6% Tulane
Nov. 22 Southeastern Louisiana 15.0% 64 76 85.0% Wyoming
Nov. 23 Lamar 50.5% 71 70 49.5% Alabama St.
Nov. 23 Le Moyne 10.7% 67 82 89.3% Tex A&M Corpus Chris
Nov. 23 Youngstown St. 30.2% 65 71 69.8% Stephen F. Austin
Nov. 24 Nebraska Omaha 55.8% 78 76 44.2% Lamar
Nov. 24 North Alabama 59.2% 76 73 40.8% Northwestern St.
Nov. 25 Eastern Michigan 48.2% 71 72 51.8% Houston Baptist
Nov. 25 Incarnate Word 18.7% 67 77 81.3% South Alabama
Nov. 25 Le Moyne 11.2% 69 84 88.8% UT Rio Grande Valley
Nov. 25 Texas A&M Commerce 40.0% 67 70 60.0% Stonehill
Nov. 26 Southeastern Louisiana 16.7% 64 75 83.3% Gardner Webb
Nov. 27 New Orleans 0.3% 59 101 99.7% Baylor
Nov. 27 Northern Arizona 68.9% 76 70 31.1% Houston Baptist
Nov. 27 Western Illinois 42.0% 67 69 58.0% Incarnate Word