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Updated with games through Thursday, November 21

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Summit		Current Record		Projected Record		Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
	Team	Conf.	Overall	Conf.	Overall	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
1.	St. Thomas MN (155)	0 - 0	1 - 2	10.4 - 5.6	16.9 - 11.1	33.2	20.2	14.4	10.0	8.0	5.2	4.3	3.1	1.6
2.	South Dakota St. (198)	0 - 0	3 - 1	9.0 - 7.0	13.7 - 12.3	16.3	16.2	14.8	13.1	11.2	9.5	8.1	6.3	4.5
3.	North Dakota St. (206)	0 - 0	1 - 3	8.9 - 7.1	13.7 - 14.3	15.5	15.3	14.2	12.7	11.0	10.1	9.0	7.4	4.9
4.	UMKC (237)	0 - 0	0 - 2	7.9 - 8.1	12.5 - 14.5	8.4	11.0	11.9	12.0	11.9	11.8	11.3	11.4	10.2
5.	South Dakota (240)	0 - 0	3 - 1	7.8 - 8.2	14.1 - 13.9	8.0	10.0	10.7	12.5	12.4	11.9	12.2	12.2	10.2
6.	North Dakota (253)	0 - 0	1 - 2	7.5 - 8.5	10.9 - 15.1	6.4	8.6	10.1	11.1	12.3	12.9	13.2	12.8	12.5
7.	Nebraska Omaha (255)	0 - 0	1 - 3	7.2 - 8.8	11.8 - 17.2	5.5	7.4	9.7	10.8	11.5	12.8	13.9	14.1	14.4
8.	Oral Roberts (271)	0 - 0	0 - 4	6.8 - 9.2	8.2 - 16.8	3.8	6.3	7.8	9.4	11.5	13.1	13.9	15.8	18.5
9.	Denver (283)	0 - 0	1 - 2	6.4 - 9.6	10.7 - 17.3	2.9	5.1	6.4	8.4	10.2	12.7	14.2	16.9	23.2

This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

			Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
	Team	Outright	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
1.	St. Thomas MN	27.5	39.8	20.3	13.4	8.7	6.8	4.5	3.4	2.1	1.1
2.	South Dakota St.	12.5	20.1	18.6	15.2	12.7	10.0	8.2	7.0	5.0	3.2
3.	North Dakota St.	12.3	19.6	17.0	14.8	12.3	10.9	8.8	7.6	5.5	3.5
4.	UMKC	6.2	11.2	12.8	12.9	12.4	12.1	11.3	10.2	9.2	7.9
5.	South Dakota	5.9	10.5	11.9	12.4	12.4	12.2	11.4	11.3	10.1	7.8
6.	North Dakota	4.9	8.7	10.5	11.4	12.1	12.0	12.6	12.2	11.2	9.4
7.	Nebraska Omaha	3.9	7.4	9.1	11.3	11.7	12.3	12.2	12.6	12.2	11.1
8.	Oral Roberts	2.8	5.3	7.8	9.0	10.8	12.2	12.9	13.5	14.0	14.5
9.	Denver	2.1	4.3	6.2	7.9	9.7	11.2	12.7	13.8	15.7	18.6

This Week's Games

Date	Away	W Prob, Pred Score				Home
Nov. 22	Nebraska Omaha	56.3%	73	71	43.7%	Alabama St.
Nov. 22	UMKC	55.6%	67	65	44.4%	American
Nov. 22	North Dakota	18.9%	67	76	81.1%	Loyola Marymount
Nov. 22	South Dakota	42.9%	74	77	57.1%	Southern Indiana
Nov. 22	Wofford	44.9%	68	69	55.1%	St. Thomas MN
Nov. 23	Nebraska Omaha	25.7%	71	78	74.3%	Akron
Nov. 23	UMKC	58.5%	74	72	41.5%	Albany
Nov. 23	St. Thomas MN	68.4%	72	67	31.6%	Portland St.
Nov. 24	Denver	22.1%	74	83	77.9%	Montana
Nov. 24	South Dakota St.	45.2%	71	72	54.8%	Duquesne
Nov. 24	Nebraska Omaha	55.8%	78	76	44.2%	Lamar
Nov. 24	St. Thomas MN	41.1%	73	75	58.9%	Milwaukee
Nov. 25	Denver	36.4%	77	81	63.6%	Cal St. Northridge
Nov. 26	North Dakota	64.7%	73	68	35.3%	Bethune Cookman
Nov. 26	Dixie St.	53.3%	80	79	46.7%	Denver
Nov. 26	North Dakota St.	22.9%	72	81	77.1%	Samford
Nov. 27	South Dakota	4.3%	65	88	95.7%	Nebraska
Nov. 27	West Georgia	23.4%	68	76	76.6%	North Dakota St.
Nov. 28	Utah Valley	63.5%	71	67	36.5%	North Dakota St.