Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Summit

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Summit Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
1. North Dakota St. (125) 8 - 0 15 - 5 13.7 - 2.3 20.7 - 7.3 59.138.32.40.20.0
2. St. Thomas MN (113) 6 - 1 14 - 5 13.1 - 2.9 21.1 - 6.9 40.452.46.50.60.10.0
3. South Dakota St. (151) 3 - 3 7 - 11 10.1 - 5.9 14.1 - 13.9 0.47.659.823.66.31.70.40.1
4. North Dakota (268) 6 - 2 9 - 12 9.1 - 6.9 12.1 - 16.9 0.21.624.349.517.05.91.60.0
5. South Dakota (285) 3 - 4 8 - 11 6.9 - 9.1 11.9 - 16.1 0.03.510.734.228.217.35.01.1
6. Nebraska Omaha (249) 3 - 4 6 - 12 6.5 - 9.5 9.5 - 17.5 0.12.59.521.530.230.15.50.6
7. Denver (246) 2 - 5 6 - 13 6.2 - 9.8 10.2 - 17.8 0.01.05.719.828.932.69.72.2
8. UMKC (335) 1 - 6 1 - 17 3.4 - 12.6 3.4 - 23.6 0.10.52.49.540.946.6
9. Oral Roberts (306) 0 - 7 2 - 17 3.1 - 12.9 5.1 - 22.9 0.00.00.52.68.538.949.5
Weekly Changes
1. North Dakota St. (125) +5.8+0.3-5.0-0.9-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0
2. St. Thomas MN (113) -0.2+10.2-8.5-1.2-0.2-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0
3. South Dakota St. (151) -5.3-9.1+7.2+7.8+0.4-0.5-0.3-0.1-0.0
4. North Dakota (268) +0.1+0.9+17.5+26.6-8.6-17.5-13.5-4.8-0.7
5. South Dakota (285) -0.0-0.3+0.1-0.4+16.4+5.7-5.9-10.7-4.8
6. Nebraska Omaha (249) -0.1-0.4-1.8-7.6-0.2+9.0+10.5-5.9-3.6
7. Denver (246) -0.3-1.6-9.1-22.5-3.1+11.0+20.3+4.4+1.0
8. UMKC (335) +0.0+0.0-0.1-0.4-1.1-2.1-2.2+14.4-8.5
9. Oral Roberts (306) +0.0+0.0-0.3-1.3-3.4-5.5-8.9+2.7+16.7


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
1. North Dakota St. 52.073.824.81.30.1
2. St. Thomas MN 25.346.948.83.90.4
3. South Dakota St. 0.22.411.264.117.24.00.90.20.0
4. North Dakota 0.10.32.932.850.410.82.40.3
5. South Dakota 0.00.00.15.714.335.427.514.12.70.3
6. Nebraska Omaha 0.00.13.311.330.729.621.82.90.3
7. Denver 0.00.02.49.325.427.727.56.71.0
8. UMKC 0.00.00.11.14.314.146.034.4
9. Oral Roberts 0.00.00.01.24.212.539.242.9






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 28 Denver 60.7% 83 80 39.3% UMKC
Jan. 28 South Dakota St. 59.5% 76 74 40.5% Nebraska Omaha
Jan. 29 North Dakota 9.8% 69 85 90.2% St. Thomas MN
Jan. 29 Oral Roberts 27.7% 77 84 72.3% South Dakota
Jan. 31 Nebraska Omaha 34.1% 79 84 65.9% Denver
Jan. 31 North Dakota St. 73.5% 84 77 26.5% South Dakota
Jan. 31 Oral Roberts 9.3% 67 83 90.7% South Dakota St.
Feb. 01 UMKC 4.5% 64 86 95.5% St. Thomas MN