Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Western

Updated with games through Thursday, November 21

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Western Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
1. Grand Canyon (91) 0 - 0 2 - 2 11.5 - 4.5 19.6 - 9.4 42.223.214.38.95.82.91.60.80.2
2. Seattle (113) 0 - 0 1 - 3 10.4 - 5.6 15.4 - 12.6 22.723.018.513.59.56.34.02.00.5
3. Utah Valley (142) 0 - 0 1 - 1 9.5 - 6.5 15.4 - 12.6 14.117.917.715.612.69.66.94.21.4
4. UT Arlington (159) 0 - 0 0 - 3 8.9 - 7.1 13.4 - 14.6 9.314.016.715.814.812.39.25.52.4
5. California Baptist (194) 0 - 0 3 - 2 7.7 - 8.3 13.6 - 15.4 4.77.810.813.715.915.814.011.55.8
6. Southern Utah (214) 0 - 0 2 - 1 7.3 - 8.7 12.4 - 14.6 3.56.39.212.214.116.617.113.57.6
7. Abilene Christian (226) 0 - 0 1 - 2 7.1 - 8.9 11.5 - 16.5 2.85.58.111.614.415.918.214.59.0
8. Dixie St. (267) 0 - 0 0 - 3 5.7 - 10.3 8.9 - 20.1 0.72.13.96.89.314.318.225.419.4
9. Tarleton St. (329) 0 - 0 0 - 5 3.9 - 12.1 5.7 - 22.3 0.10.30.71.83.66.210.822.853.6


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
1. Grand Canyon 35.649.022.712.76.94.72.11.10.60.1
2. Seattle 18.228.124.617.712.27.85.22.91.30.4
3. Utah Valley 11.218.419.718.314.911.57.75.63.00.9
4. UT Arlington 6.912.416.217.815.813.810.87.63.91.7
5. California Baptist 3.36.29.912.614.616.014.712.59.44.0
6. Southern Utah 2.54.78.210.613.415.216.215.111.15.7
7. Abilene Christian 1.83.97.29.812.515.416.315.912.46.6
8. Dixie St. 0.41.03.05.18.010.815.218.523.115.2
9. Tarleton St. 0.00.10.51.12.54.77.512.523.747.3






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Nov. 22 Dixie St. 6.4% 69 89 93.6% Utah
Nov. 22 Norfolk St. 16.2% 67 78 83.8% Grand Canyon
Nov. 22 Utah Valley 22.6% 65 73 77.4% Murray St.
Nov. 22 Southern Utah 43.6% 74 76 56.4% San Diego
Nov. 23 Eastern Washington 40.0% 76 78 60.0% California Baptist
Nov. 23 Southern Utah 63.2% 75 71 36.8% Idaho
Nov. 24 Dixie St. 39.6% 73 76 60.4% Cal St. Northridge
Nov. 25 Southern Miss 42.6% 71 73 57.4% Abilene Christian
Nov. 25 Dixie St. 24.5% 70 78 75.5% Montana
Nov. 25 Murray St. 68.9% 77 72 31.1% UT Arlington
Nov. 26 Abilene Christian 27.5% 69 76 72.5% Montana St.
Nov. 26 SMU 85.8% 84 71 14.2% California Baptist
Nov. 26 Dixie St. 53.3% 80 79 46.7% Denver
Nov. 26 Seattle 55.9% 76 74 44.1% Furman
Nov. 26 Stanford 66.5% 77 73 33.5% Grand Canyon
Nov. 26 UT Arlington 31.1% 72 77 68.9% Murray St.
Nov. 26 Southern Utah 4.1% 57 78 95.9% UCLA
Nov. 26 West Georgia 14.9% 63 75 85.1% Utah Valley
Nov. 27 Utah Valley 34.1% 71 76 65.9% Samford
Nov. 27 Austin Peay 32.2% 74 79 67.8% UT Arlington
Nov. 28 Utah Valley 63.5% 71 67 36.5% North Dakota St.