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Preseason Predictions

Odds Charts

NCAA Tournament

West Coast

Updated with games through Thursday, November 21

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

West Coast		Current Record		Projected Record		Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
	Team	Conf.	Overall	Conf.	Overall	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th
1.	Gonzaga (1)	0 - 0	5 - 0	16.9 - 1.1	27.1 - 1.9	93.2	5.7	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
2.	San Francisco (40)	0 - 0	4 - 1	12.3 - 5.7	20.7 - 8.3	2.9	33.6	25.8	18.5	10.4	5.3	2.4	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0
3.	Washington St. (55)	0 - 0	5 - 1	11.9 - 6.1	21.3 - 9.7	1.6	26.9	25.7	20.1	13.2	7.7	3.0	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
4.	Saint Mary's (57)	0 - 0	4 - 0	11.5 - 6.5	20.2 - 8.8	1.9	22.0	23.8	20.6	14.8	9.2	4.8	1.9	0.7	0.3	0.1
5.	Santa Clara (90)	0 - 0	2 - 3	9.4 - 8.6	15.6 - 14.4	0.2	5.5	10.2	16.0	20.2	18.6	14.3	8.4	4.0	1.9	0.7
6.	Oregon St. (102)	0 - 0	3 - 1	9.2 - 8.8	16.2 - 11.8	0.2	4.8	9.4	14.3	19.0	19.6	15.0	9.2	5.1	2.4	0.9
7.	Loyola Marymount (149)	0 - 0	0 - 2	7.6 - 10.4	12.3 - 15.7	0.0	1.1	2.8	6.2	12.1	18.2	21.0	16.5	11.3	7.0	3.7
8.	Pepperdine (222)	0 - 0	1 - 3	5.8 - 12.2	10.6 - 18.4		0.2	0.7	1.8	4.2	7.7	13.7	19.0	20.8	18.4	13.4
9.	Portland (247)	0 - 0	1 - 3	5.2 - 12.8	10.0 - 19.0		0.1	0.3	1.0	2.6	6.2	11.0	17.3	21.0	21.5	19.1
10.	San Diego (254)	0 - 0	1 - 3	5.1 - 12.9	9.0 - 21.0		0.1	0.3	1.0	2.4	5.4	9.8	16.0	19.7	23.1	22.1
11.	Pacific (291)	0 - 0	1 - 4	4.0 - 14.0	7.8 - 23.2			0.1	0.3	0.9	2.1	4.9	9.7	16.8	25.2	40.1

This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

			Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
	Team	Outright	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th
1.	Gonzaga	89.9	95.7	3.7	0.5	0.1	0.0
2.	San Francisco	1.8	4.5	39.1	25.9	15.3	8.6	4.0	1.8	0.6	0.1	0.1
3.	Washington St.	1.1	2.9	32.6	26.5	18.9	10.4	5.5	2.2	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
4.	Saint Mary's	0.9	2.6	26.6	24.9	19.2	13.6	7.1	3.9	1.4	0.4	0.2	0.0
5.	Santa Clara	0.1	0.4	7.6	12.7	17.0	19.8	17.7	13.0	6.9	3.1	1.4	0.4
6.	Oregon St.	0.1	0.3	6.9	11.8	16.3	20.2	18.5	12.9	7.1	3.9	1.6	0.5
7.	Loyola Marymount	0.0	0.1	1.6	4.3	8.2	14.2	19.1	20.5	14.6	9.8	5.3	2.4
8.	Pepperdine	0.0		0.4	1.1	2.3	5.6	9.6	15.2	20.1	19.7	15.8	10.2
9.	Portland	0.0		0.1	0.4	1.5	3.9	7.5	13.0	19.0	20.6	19.1	14.7
10.	San Diego	0.0		0.2	0.5	1.6	3.5	7.1	11.5	17.9	20.1	20.5	17.1
11.	Pacific	0.0		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.4	3.2	6.4	12.0	18.4	25.0	33.0

This Week's Games

Date	Away	W Prob, Pred Score				Home
Nov. 22	North Dakota	18.9%	67	76	81.1%	Loyola Marymount
Nov. 22	Pacific	2.5%	65	92	97.5%	Missouri
Nov. 22	Pepperdine	5.3%	63	82	94.7%	Northwestern
Nov. 22	Southern Utah	43.6%	74	76	56.4%	San Diego
Nov. 22	Ohio	73.8%	78	71	26.2%	Portland
Nov. 23	Cal Poly	7.5%	65	82	92.5%	Saint Mary's
Nov. 23	Stanford	51.3%	76	75	48.7%	Santa Clara
Nov. 24	Idaho	31.1%	69	74	68.9%	San Diego
Nov. 25	San Francisco	38.6%	68	72	61.4%	Clemson
Nov. 25	Oregon St.	28.8%	62	67	71.2%	North Texas
Nov. 26	Loyola Marymount	48.0%	74	75	52.0%	Belmont
Nov. 26	Cal St. Fullerton	29.7%	69	75	70.3%	Pepperdine
Nov. 26	Washington St.	87.9%	81	67	12.1%	Fresno St.
Nov. 27	Arkansas Pine Bluff	18.2%	75	86	81.8%	Pacific
Nov. 27	West Virginia	9.8%	73	88	90.2%	Gonzaga
Nov. 27	Fresno St.	12.1%	67	81	87.9%	Washington St.
Nov. 28	USC	50.2%	74	73	49.8%	Saint Mary's
Nov. 28	TCU	62.4%	77	74	37.6%	Santa Clara