Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

West Coast

Updated with games through Tuesday, January 27

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

West Coast Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Gonzaga (4) 9 - 0 21 - 1 17.0 - 1.0 29.0 - 2.0 92.26.71.0
2. Saint Mary's (31) 8 - 1 18 - 3 14.4 - 3.6 24.4 - 5.6 6.060.932.11.00.10.0
3. Santa Clara (51) 8 - 1 16 - 5 13.6 - 4.4 21.6 - 8.4 1.832.060.74.50.80.20.0
4. San Francisco (93) 5 - 4 12 - 9 9.4 - 8.6 16.4 - 13.6 0.23.644.127.113.26.53.21.40.50.10.0
5. Pacific (111) 5 - 4 12 - 8 9.3 - 8.7 16.3 - 12.7 0.11.934.327.118.49.95.32.10.70.20.0
6. Washington St. (136) 4 - 5 8 - 13 8.1 - 9.9 12.1 - 17.9 0.00.48.018.119.820.716.89.24.72.00.3
7. Seattle (118) 3 - 6 12 - 8 8.1 - 9.9 17.1 - 11.9 0.25.117.226.222.714.17.44.32.20.5
8. San Diego (205) 3 - 6 7 - 13 6.7 - 11.3 10.7 - 18.3 0.01.24.18.115.117.817.717.116.02.8
9. Loyola Marymount (164) 2 - 7 10 - 11 6.2 - 11.8 14.2 - 15.8 0.01.53.46.79.614.718.219.518.18.3
10. Oregon St. (212) 3 - 6 10 - 12 5.8 - 12.2 12.8 - 18.2 0.21.03.57.212.017.822.227.28.8
11. Portland (203) 3 - 6 8 - 12 5.8 - 12.2 10.8 - 18.2 0.21.13.77.814.822.623.319.07.6
12. Pepperdine (259) 1 - 8 4 - 16 3.5 - 14.5 6.5 - 22.5 0.00.10.41.33.77.815.271.6
Weekly Changes
1. Gonzaga (4) -2.5+2.0+0.5+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Saint Mary's (31) +1.9+0.4-1.4-0.8-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
3. Santa Clara (51) +0.6-2.1+3.2-0.8-0.6-0.2-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
4. San Francisco (93) +0.0-0.0-0.0+8.5+1.3-3.6-3.4-1.6-0.6-0.4-0.1+0.0
5. Pacific (111) +0.0-0.1-0.4+6.9+4.1-1.6-4.1-2.1-1.6-0.8-0.2-0.1
6. Washington St. (136) +0.0-0.1-1.2-6.9-2.1-0.5+3.0+3.9+2.7+1.2+0.1-0.2
7. Seattle (118) +0.0-0.1-0.6-5.7-1.0+5.8+3.6+0.7-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.2
8. San Diego (205) +0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0+0.8+1.7+4.1+1.5+0.4-1.9-2.9-3.7
9. Loyola Marymount (164) +0.0+0.0-0.0-1.1-1.7-1.9-2.3-0.6+1.2+2.6+3.1+0.7
10. Oregon St. (212) +0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.3+0.1+0.1-1.2-1.2-0.2+2.2+0.6
11. Portland (203) +0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.2+0.4-0.6+0.0+0.7+0.9-0.4-0.7
12. Pepperdine (259) +0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.5-1.2+3.6


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Gonzaga 85.995.14.40.5
2. Saint Mary's 3.911.166.622.00.30.0
3. Santa Clara 0.83.938.255.91.90.10.0
4. San Francisco 0.00.34.147.925.612.95.92.60.60.20.00.0
5. Pacific 0.00.23.046.524.614.47.32.90.80.20.10.0
6. Washington St. 0.00.00.616.523.421.318.011.65.22.40.90.1
7. Seattle 0.00.414.723.924.017.910.64.92.31.10.2
8. San Diego 0.00.13.57.612.017.420.416.311.210.01.5
9. Loyola Marymount 0.00.02.25.29.113.917.320.716.412.03.3
10. Oregon St. 0.00.62.25.310.515.722.421.817.64.0
11. Portland 0.00.00.52.35.19.515.722.422.818.13.8
12. Pepperdine 0.00.00.10.30.62.04.99.216.866.1






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Jan. 28 Oregon St. 25.9% 65 73 74.1% Loyola Marymount
Jan. 28 Portland 16.6% 66 77 83.4% Pacific
Jan. 28 San Diego 48.2% 73 74 51.8% Pepperdine
Jan. 28 San Francisco 20.5% 71 80 79.5% Santa Clara
Jan. 28 Seattle 40.8% 71 73 59.2% Washington St.
Jan. 31 Saint Mary's 14.5% 68 81 85.5% Gonzaga
Jan. 31 Santa Clara 74.0% 78 70 26.0% Loyola Marymount
Jan. 31 Oregon St. 33.7% 73 78 66.3% San Diego
Jan. 31 Pacific 29.0% 66 72 71.0% San Francisco
Jan. 31 Portland 21.4% 73 82 78.6% Washington St.
Feb. 03 Loyola Marymount 17.8% 64 74 82.2% San Francisco