Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

West Coast

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

West Coast Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Gonzaga (2) 0 - 0 9 - 1 17.0 - 1.0 28.8 - 2.2 93.36.20.40.10.00.0
2. Saint Mary's (30) 0 - 0 8 - 1 13.7 - 4.3 24.0 - 6.0 5.759.920.28.03.71.60.70.20.10.0
3. Santa Clara (69) 0 - 0 7 - 2 11.2 - 6.8 20.4 - 9.6 0.713.827.122.014.29.76.63.51.50.70.20.1
4. Pacific (108) 0 - 0 6 - 3 10.3 - 7.7 17.2 - 11.8 0.17.716.718.317.714.610.76.64.02.21.00.3
5. San Francisco (90) 0 - 0 5 - 4 9.9 - 8.1 17.0 - 13.0 0.25.314.217.018.217.213.17.83.82.00.80.3
6. Seattle (101) 0 - 0 6 - 2 9.8 - 8.2 17.6 - 11.4 0.14.711.917.619.317.312.78.14.52.41.10.2
7. Loyola Marymount (139) 0 - 0 6 - 3 8.5 - 9.5 16.8 - 13.2 0.01.86.69.313.415.216.714.010.76.83.62.0
8. Washington St. (166) 0 - 0 2 - 7 6.9 - 11.1 10.1 - 19.9 0.31.43.86.29.913.517.316.413.910.46.8
9. Oregon St. (187) 0 - 0 5 - 5 6.1 - 11.9 12.1 - 18.9 0.10.82.33.86.510.314.018.217.615.610.7
10. Portland (231) 0 - 0 4 - 4 5.2 - 12.8 10.1 - 18.9 0.00.20.61.43.06.610.915.719.621.220.5
11. San Diego (249) 0 - 0 2 - 6 5.1 - 12.9 7.9 - 21.1 0.00.20.91.43.35.710.215.218.322.322.6
12. Pepperdine (268) 0 - 0 1 - 7 4.3 - 13.7 6.7 - 22.3 0.10.20.71.73.47.310.016.623.636.4
Weekly Changes
1. Gonzaga (2) +9.6-7.1-2.0-0.4-0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. Saint Mary's (30) -5.8+13.3-2.6-2.5-1.0-0.8-0.4-0.2-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0
3. Santa Clara (69) -2.9-8.0-4.1+2.9+2.7+3.1+3.0+1.9+0.7+0.3+0.1+0.1
4. Pacific (108) -0.2+1.6+4.7+1.1+0.6-0.9-1.3-1.9-1.7-1.0-0.7-0.4
5. San Francisco (90) -0.3+0.4+2.6+0.0-1.0+0.8+0.2-0.4-1.0-0.7-0.4-0.2
6. Seattle (101) -0.4-0.4+0.1-1.0-0.0+0.7+0.9+0.9-0.4-0.1-0.0-0.2
7. Loyola Marymount (139) -0.0+0.3+2.0+1.2+2.3+0.4-0.1-0.6-0.9-1.6-1.9-1.0
8. Washington St. (166) -0.0-0.1-0.5-0.4-0.8-0.5+0.0+0.9+0.6+0.8+0.2-0.4
9. Oregon St. (187) +0.0-0.0-0.2-0.7-1.6-1.8-1.3-1.1+2.0+1.0+2.3+1.6
10. Portland (231) +0.0+0.0-0.0-0.2-0.4-0.4+0.3+0.5+0.3+1.5-0.1-1.5
11. San Diego (249) +0.0-0.0+0.1+0.3-0.1+0.6+0.3+1.2+2.5+0.3-0.0-5.1
12. Pepperdine (268) +0.0-0.0-0.0-0.4-0.7-1.1-1.6-1.2-2.2-0.5+0.6+7.1


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
1. Gonzaga 88.595.44.30.20.0
2. Saint Mary's 3.99.864.016.55.92.31.00.40.10.0
3. Santa Clara 0.41.117.628.321.813.38.45.32.51.10.40.20.0
4. Pacific 0.10.310.621.319.716.612.98.65.32.81.20.60.2
5. San Francisco 0.10.37.517.018.618.115.711.46.22.91.40.60.2
6. Seattle 0.00.26.815.419.619.615.710.96.23.11.60.70.1
7. Loyola Marymount 0.00.12.98.612.214.814.915.812.98.85.22.61.2
8. Washington St. 0.00.52.14.98.011.415.417.815.711.78.04.5
9. Oregon St. 0.00.21.53.15.17.911.515.818.216.112.97.5
10. Portland 0.00.10.40.92.24.18.312.816.919.219.116.2
11. San Diego 0.00.10.41.32.24.47.512.316.418.619.717.1
12. Pepperdine 0.00.00.10.40.92.34.78.612.817.822.929.5






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 13 Santa Clara 49.3% 78 79 50.7% Arizona St.
Dec. 13 Pepperdine 45.4% 72 74 54.6% Cal St. Bakersfield
Dec. 13 UCLA 13.6% 68 81 86.4% Gonzaga
Dec. 13 Montana St. 50.3% 69 68 49.7% Oregon St.
Dec. 13 Northern Arizona 33.3% 71 76 66.7% San Diego
Dec. 13 San Francisco 17.8% 70 81 82.2% Saint Louis
Dec. 14 Saint Mary's 54.2% 69 68 45.8% Boise St.
Dec. 14 Kent St. 49.8% 80 81 50.2% Portland
Dec. 14 Washington St. 6.5% 75 94 93.5% USC
Dec. 16 Pacific 4.2% 62 84 95.8% BYU
Dec. 16 UC San Diego 47.2% 70 71 52.8% Loyola Marymount
Dec. 17 Seattle 51.6% 69 68 48.4% UC Davis
Dec. 17 Campbell 0.5% 57 97 99.5% Gonzaga
Dec. 17 Washington St. 51.1% 81 80 48.9% Eastern Washington
Dec. 17 San Francisco 92.5% 80 64 7.5% Loyola Chicago
Dec. 17 Santa Clara 79.8% 74 65 20.2% North Texas
Dec. 17 Portland 11.4% 68 82 88.6% Oregon
Dec. 17 Sam Houston St. 64.9% 78 74 35.1% Oregon St.
Dec. 18 Pepperdine 35.6% 69 73 64.4% Long Beach St.