Home Game Probabilities Conferences Preseason Predictions Odds Charts NCAA Tournament

Big East

Updated with games through Thursday, December 11

Conference Projections

Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Tiebreaking was done using the Big Ten tiebreaking procedures.

Big East Current Record Projected Record Projected Finish (% odds, with tiebreakers)
Team Conf. Overall Conf. Overall 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Connecticut (7) 0 - 0 9 - 1 17.2 - 2.8 27.1 - 3.9 72.720.45.11.20.50.10.1
2. St. John's (18) 0 - 0 5 - 3 14.9 - 5.1 22.4 - 8.6 19.944.520.88.13.81.70.80.30.10.0
3. Butler (33) 0 - 0 7 - 2 12.8 - 7.2 21.4 - 9.6 5.019.329.919.711.27.04.02.01.10.50.1
4. Creighton (54) 0 - 0 5 - 4 10.4 - 9.6 17.0 - 14.0 0.94.613.418.317.915.311.78.25.43.01.3
5. Villanova (56) 0 - 0 7 - 2 10.4 - 9.6 18.6 - 12.4 0.84.812.017.618.615.712.39.05.02.91.4
6. Seton Hall (61) 0 - 0 9 - 1 9.9 - 10.1 19.7 - 11.3 0.53.59.515.516.916.214.010.47.04.32.2
7. Providence (80) 0 - 0 7 - 4 8.8 - 11.2 15.8 - 15.2 0.21.85.29.513.615.515.514.811.07.94.9
8. Xavier (94) 0 - 0 7 - 3 7.7 - 12.3 15.6 - 15.4 0.10.72.65.38.012.515.216.515.413.710.0
9. Marquette (121) 0 - 0 5 - 5 6.4 - 13.6 11.4 - 19.6 0.10.72.14.36.510.114.319.621.021.2
10. Georgetown (126) 0 - 0 6 - 3 6.1 - 13.9 14.0 - 17.0 0.00.10.51.83.36.19.413.418.222.125.1
11. DePaul (137) 0 - 0 7 - 3 5.5 - 14.5 12.7 - 18.3 0.10.20.91.93.56.911.117.124.633.7
Weekly Changes
1. Connecticut (7) +3.4-1.6-1.5-0.3+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
2. St. John's (18) -2.0+0.4+0.7-0.0+0.3+0.4+0.2+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
3. Butler (33) -1.2-0.9-1.8+0.9+1.0+0.6+0.7+0.3+0.2+0.1+0.0
4. Creighton (54) -0.1-0.5+0.5-0.7-0.1+0.3+0.5-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.1
5. Villanova (56) -0.1+1.1+1.1+0.7+0.9+0.1-0.6-0.1-1.5-1.1-0.6
6. Seton Hall (61) +0.1+1.3+2.7+3.1+1.5+1.1-0.7-1.9-3.1-2.6-1.5
7. Providence (80) -0.1+0.3-0.1-0.3+0.5+0.6+0.0+0.6-0.9-0.6-0.1
8. Xavier (94) -0.0+0.0-0.3-1.3-2.0-0.3+0.9+0.7+0.5+1.2+0.7
9. Marquette (121) -0.0-0.1-0.9-1.5-1.6-2.1-1.4-0.6+2.1+2.0+4.0
10. Georgetown (126) +0.0-0.0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.4+0.1-0.2+0.4+0.4+0.4
11. DePaul (137) +0.0+0.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.2+1.1+2.1+0.5-2.9


This table gives the probability of earning at least a share of a given place.
So there are no tiebreakers and there can be multiple first place teams, for example.

Projected Finish (% odds, no tiebreakers)
Team Outright 1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th
1. Connecticut 66.179.016.53.40.80.30.10.0
2. St. John's 15.125.445.518.16.52.51.30.50.20.10.0
3. Butler 3.27.322.331.317.99.95.53.21.50.80.20.1
4. Creighton 0.51.46.315.620.218.214.410.06.64.32.20.9
5. Villanova 0.51.26.314.819.218.414.911.17.13.92.10.9
6. Seton Hall 0.20.74.712.217.017.815.612.99.05.53.21.4
7. Providence 0.10.32.56.611.315.515.715.613.49.56.23.4
8. Xavier 0.10.10.93.66.79.414.515.715.914.311.57.4
9. Marquette 0.00.31.02.85.47.911.615.919.419.316.6
10. Georgetown 0.00.00.10.92.44.47.510.515.018.120.520.5
11. DePaul 0.00.10.41.32.54.98.712.418.123.727.8






This Week's Games

Date Away W Prob, Pred Score Home
Dec. 12 Texas 8.5% 67 83 91.5% Connecticut
Dec. 12 Missouri St. 11.1% 66 81 88.9% Xavier
Dec. 13 Providence 17.0% 81 93 83.0% Butler
Dec. 13 Kansas St. 31.6% 75 80 68.4% Creighton
Dec. 13 DePaul 16.7% 66 77 83.3% Wichita St.
Dec. 13 Saint Peter's 5.8% 61 79 94.2% Georgetown
Dec. 13 Iona 2.7% 65 92 97.3% St. John's
Dec. 13 Marquette 2.6% 64 89 97.4% Purdue
Dec. 13 Pittsburgh 19.2% 65 74 80.8% Villanova
Dec. 13 Rutgers 14.5% 61 73 85.5% Seton Hall
Dec. 16 Butler 11.9% 70 84 88.1% Connecticut
Dec. 16 DePaul 4.7% 63 85 95.3% St. John's
Dec. 17 Creighton 51.1% 76 75 48.9% Xavier
Dec. 17 Georgetown 33.6% 73 78 66.4% Marquette